Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 2nd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

2nd Quarter 2014 - (April, May, June)

 

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory of homes for sale grow from a low of 122 in March, to 178 in April, 234 in May and finally 252 homes for June! We are still far below a more normal inventory of homes but we are headed in the right direction. However, the number of homes coming on the market during each month has been a little weak. April showed 70 homes come to market, May spiked to 99 and then we dropped all the way back to 78 homes in June. The number of homes which actually sold this last quarter has been amazingly constant. April showed 78 homes sold, May had 75 homes sell and June had 81 homes sell. Single family homes are selling in about 2 ½ to 3 months, while condos take only about a month and a half.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County decreased to $529,450,  down  -2% in May from April. The median price of a home in Camarillo dropped to $532,500,  down -2.3% from April.

Oxnard as usual is mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 230 homes in March to a peak of 318 homes in June.  The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, 126 homes in May and back down to 108 homes in June. Still that is better than the average of  94 homes during the first quarter of this year. Total Oxnard home sales are up over the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May and 135 homes sold in June. There just isn’t much wind in the sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, a drop of  -10.5% from April.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 218 homes in June. Like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes coming to market each month has stayed flat with 82 homes in April, 73 in May and 89 in June. Total sales have also remained flat with 94 in April, falling to 82 in May and 86 in June.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000,  down  -2.9%  from April. 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a gradual increase in total home inventories.  Santa Paula especially has developed an increasing trend over the past quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June.   A good month saw 15 homes come to market (April & June), while May saw only 7 homes come to market. Sales in Santa Paula have remained between 13 & 14 per month while Fillmore has seen from 6 to 12 homes sell each month.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000,  down   -13.8%, while Fillmore was $336,000 up 7.5% from April!

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June.  New listings jumped from 31 in April to 39 in May and back a bit to 29 homes in June. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in April to 52 homes, up from 37 homes for March, and trended back down to 46 homes in May and 34 homes in June. (right back to March’s numbers). Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and 33 for June.  

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April!

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June.  The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, 110 in May, then up a bit to 130 homes in June.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, down  -3.6% from April.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their total inventory slip from 234 homes in April to 217 homes in May and then rocket up to 327 homes in June!  The monthly increases went from 101 homes in April to 104 homes in May and again jump up to 144 homes in June!  Total sales of condos and SFD started at 114 homes in April, dropped to 64 homes in May and jumped right back to 117 homes in June. There is some market uncertainty here but the numbers are much better generally than for the first quarter of  2014.

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  down  -5.4% from April.                   Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  down -14.4% from April.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a stronger market during the second quarter. Total market inventory has climbed from between 92 and 97 homes during the first quarter to 119 homes in April, 127 homes in May and back to 117 homes in June. That’s still an improvement over the first quarter. The monthly number of homes coming to market has fallen a bit from 53 homes in April, to 54 homes in May back down to 40 homes in June.  Total home sales have remained flat between 47 and 53 homes for the quarter.

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000,  up 15.1% from April.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June. Monthly sales began at 42 homes for April, remained flat at 39 homes in May and bounced to 58 homes in June.

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500.

 

Summary

I just finished tabulating data for July sales and see that inventory in Ventura County is gradually increasing and as of the end of July sales are increasing slightly in San Buenaventura & the Conejo Valley but remain flat in the rest of the county.   However, even though sales were better in the second quarter than the first, home listings continue to build our inventory more quickly than they sell. This may add some downward pressure to prices if this trend continues more than a few months. That said, the number of single family home sales increased 4.7% in June to 470 sold units.  Condo sales fell -5% in June from May totals to 152 sold units.

Single family home sale prices were up a bit from May to June with a county median price of $562,750 up from $529,450 in May. Condo prices rose  5.7% to a median price of $335,500 in May and then fell back to $320,000 in June.  Obviously, the condo market is going to become more important and competitive as the average price of a single family home continues to rise.

(All data from VCCAR Market Report for June and from review of the VCCAR MLS)

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 1st Quarter 2014 ( Jan, Feb, Mar )

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis

1^st Quarter 2014 - (January, February, March)

 

Camarillo is experiencing a suspiciously strong first quarter in home sales. I say suspiciously because the positive changes we are seeing began a bit slowly in January and February and took a marked upswing in March. As I’m writing this, we are in the third week of April and indications are that we are experiencing a continued increase in sales and new listings. We are shifting gears into a much stronger market than last quarter. Traditionally, we see increased sales after April 15 tax time but this year our market started moving ahead in March!   

Much of what we read in the news is how sales were down compared to last year in Feb and March. What these reports fail to emphasize is that our home inventory is higher than last year and the number of new listings is above the levels we saw last year. In Camarillo the number of homes listed each month has remained fairly constant at between 51 and 55 homes for this first quarter.

What’s interesting is the already strong demand for homes in Camarillo is building. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 161 homes in Jan to 122 homes in March. At the same time the number of homes with accepted offers has climbed from 73 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March. The actual number of homes which have made it through escrow and sold has also risen from 37 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March!  That’s a 249% increase in home sales for the first quarter. Most of this happened in March and early indications are that April will be a stronger month.              

Oxnard is once again mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 234 homes in Jan to a peak of 253 homes in Feb and back to 230 homes in March. The number of homes being listed each month has remained fairly constant between 88 and 104 homes or at an average of about 94 homes per month.  However, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow has risen from 51 homes in Dec to 120 homes in Jan, 147 homes in Feb to 186 homes in March! Those numbers will reflect more strongly next month when these homes close escrow and become sold numbers. As it is, home sales rose from 81 homes in Jan to 106 homes in March, for a 31% increase in home sales. Oxnard is on the move.  

Ventura has market numbers that follow between Camarillo on the low side and Oxnard on the high side. It also reflects a gradual gathering of demand in Jan and Feb and a defined spike in sales for March. Average home inventory has remained between 162 to 172 homes. The average  number of homes coming to market is also fairly constant at a rough average of 65 homes per month.  What is exciting is that like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow, has risen from 57 homes last Dec to 75 homes in Jan, then 82 homes in Feb and now bouncing up in March all the way to 107 homes! Again, we will see these numbers next month as a big jump in closed sales.  Closed sales have risen from 53 homes in Jan, to 72 homes in March, for a 36% increase in home sales during the first quarter.    

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen very little change in total home inventories.  Santa Paula has averaged about 40 homes on the market at any given time, while Fillmore averages 20 homes.  Unlike the other towns just discussed, we have seen Santa Paula increase the total number of  listings going into escrow for Jan and Feb but falling a bit in March. Which means the April sold numbers will suffer. Average sold numbers for the 1st quarter did rise from 13 homes in Jan, spiking all the way up to 23 homes in March. The West County spike in March sales was not shared by Fillmore where home sales have actually fallen a bit from 10 in Jan, to 8 in Feb and 6 in March.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 52 homes in Jan to 61 homes in Feb and hold fairly steady at about 58 homes in March. New listings are holding fairly steady at between 20 and 25 homes per month with no obvious trend at this time. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in March to 37 homes, up from an average 22 homes for Jan and Feb. Total closed sales has trended downward from 39 homes in Dec to 26 homes in Jan, to 21 homes in Feb and now 17 homes for March. I would expect these numbers to jump up when the 37 accepted offers for March become closings in April.

Since the supply of monthly new home listings has stagnated, but demand  (as shown by the large number of accepted offers) is high… I think it is safe to say that home prices will continue to rise in Moorpark.

Often, new home construction will add to supply but sell for a premium. Ivy Lane is one of the newer home developments in Moorpark with a sales office that opened March 1 and has already sold out it’s first phase of homes. Some may dispute my characterization of these homes, but they are basically comfortable duplexes. Homes are priced from 430K for 3 bedrooms and 1600 sq ft to 470K for 4 bedrooms and 2000 sq ft.  Considering most 1500 sq ft homes are selling for over 450K and may have been built in the 1960’s, Ivy Lane homes are worth serious consideration.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are making a steady recovery back to 2014’s peak inventory of 196 homes last October. Inventory fell back to a low of 158 homes in Dec. Then the market shifted once again. Jan saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory to 163 homes. Feb jumped to 218 homes and March to 276 homes! Monthly increases in homes coming to market have been substantial. We had 49 homes come to market last Dec, 85 in Jan, 111 in Feb and 139 homes in March!

Accepted offers have risen from 80 in Dec, to 99 in Jan, to 125 in Feb and 157 in March! These homes are in escrow and will need another month to reflect as sold homes. Amazingly, with such strong numbers, the actual number of homes sold for Jan - 72 - was down from the 107 sold in Dec. Feb was even worse with only 53 homes sold. Finally, this last month the numbers jumped back up to 101 homes sold for March. Seeing what is now in the pipeline, I think we can count on much better home sale numbers for April.  

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw their SFD (single family detached) market grow from 143 homes in Jan to 183 homes in Feb and again to 185 homes in March. We have not seen this large of an inventory of SFD since Aug of last year when we had 186 homes on the market. The number of all types of homes listed monthly has steadily increased from 32 last Dec to 77 in Jan, to 88 in Feb and finally shot up to 110 homes last month!

Homes going under contract have climbed a bit more gradually from 101 homes in Jan, to 121 homes in Feb, and to 133 homes in March. Actual home sales have been a bit more erratic, falling from 99 homes sold in Dec, to 80 in Jan, falling again to 67 homes in Feb. Then again last month sales bounced back to 88 homes sold for March! April numbers should be very good.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a more gradual market recovery this last quarter. Total market inventory has remained flat at between 92 and 97 homes. The number of homes coming to market during each month has bounced between 30 and 40 homes with no real change. The most interesting trend is in the number of homes which have recently gone into escrow, up from 44 in Jan, to 55 in Feb and 64 in March. That should make a nice increase in the number of sold properties for April. Currently, the number of homes sold has risen from 25 in Jan to 38 in March. This market is close to where it had peaked last October when 103 homes were on the market and 37 homes sold during the month.   

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood have not yet completely regained the market strength that they had last October. It is true that the number of homes for sale has climbed back from 96 homes in Jan, to 113 in Feb, and 122 in March. This trend is fast approaching last Octobers’ peak, when 131 homes were on the market.

During the month of Oct 2013, we had 43 homes come to market. This March we had 50 homes come to market. Last Oct we had 42 homes sell, while this March gave us 31 home sales. If  I was a betting man, I’d say this market should probably exceed last years’ Oct peak within the next quarter.  I think that forecast actually applies to the whole of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis 4th Quarter 2013 - (October, November, December)

Camarillo has not found it’s sales pace yet. Our local market has been on a roller coaster for the last 12 months. We had a slow start with 42 single family detached homes (SFD) sold in January rising to 86 SFD homes sold in July. In July we had 110 total (SFD & condo) home sales and a remaining home inventory of 163 homes. 82 homes came to market that month which gave us only about a month and a half turnover time for a well-priced home. That was a strong seller’s market. Then interest rates went up a point and we began to hear talk of our government defaulting on it’s budget requirements.

By August we were headed back down again with 60 sales which bottomed at 39 SFD sales in November – roughly where we had been in January.

Our total home inventory including condos usually gives us some warning of sales trends, since the overall number of sales cannot exceed the number of homes for sale. Pretty basic stuff, but in my experience, inventory commonly exceeds sales numbers by a factor of  2 to 5 in a strong sellers’ market. When you get beyond a 6 month inventory of homes you begin to experience more of a buyers market. It has been more than a year since we had what I would call a buyers’ market.

This December we had only 29 new listings (SFD & condo) come to market in Camarillo. 74 homes sold during the month. We had a total home inventory of 191 homes in Nov which dropped to 164 by the end of Dec. That gives us roughly a 2 month inventory of homes (164/74). The expectation that home inventories traditionally increase in January has to be tempered this year by the knowledge that only 29 new listings came to market in Dec. It’s going to take a serious seller mindset change to reverse the downward trend in the size of our housing inventory. We are going to need a larger home inventory to have more home sales and a chance to moderate home prices.

             

Oxnard has similar trends to those of Camarillo with the number of homes coming to market dropping from 103 homes in Oct to 44 homes in Dec. Total home inventory has dropped from 255 homes in Oct to 220 homes in Dec (Not including mobile homes).  The number of homes which have gone into escrow (accepted a buyer’s offer) has dropped from 143 homes in Oct to 117 homes in Nov and further down to 51 homes in Dec! Obviously, Oxnard buyers do not like the current home buying conditions.

Ventura is experiencing a similar trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has dropped from 176 homes in Oct to 165 homes in Nov and finally 136 homes in December. Most of that decrease came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which dropped from 139 homes in Oct to 127 homes in Nov and 104 homes in Dec. This is totally opposite of the trend we discussed in the 3^rd quarter market analysis, where inventories grew from 104 SFD homes in July, to 113 homes in Aug and 127 homes in Sept! What a crazy year!

There are a few signs of strength however, in the decreasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has dropped from 71 days in Oct to 57 days in Dec. Condos which used to sell in 62 days, now require an average 41 days to close. Again, these are reverse of the trends we saw in the 3^rd quarter. As inventories continue to shrink, the competition for available homes is heating up, undoubtedly pushing up home prices.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual decrease in their home inventories  In Santa Paula 57 homes were available in Oct, 37 homes in Nov and 37 homes again in Dec. The number of new listings in Santa Paula has dropped from 22 homes in Oct to 8 in Nov and further down to 4 homes in Dec!

The number of SFD homes for sale has bounced between 10 and 15 homes during the 4^th quarter.  Fillmore homes were actually about the same with the SFD home inventory dropping slightly from 22 homes in Oct to 16 homes in Dec.

Moorpark has one of the stronger real estate markets in the county.  Home sales are not as strong as in the 3^rd quarter but are beginning to rise again. Sales have risen from 31 homes in October to 39 homes in December. The total number of  listings has dropped a bit from 54 homes in Oct to 41 homes in Dec.

What I find encouraging is the fact that the number of new listings coming to market has roughly doubled during the 4^th quarter, from 20 homes in Oct to 38 homes in Dec which is the biggest number we have seen for the year since the 31 homes that came to market in July.

 

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch saw an uptrend in the number of homes for sale through Oct. The SFD market saw its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September. It spiked at 196 homes in Oct and then began a steep retracement – dropping to 178 total properties for sale in Nov and falling once again to 158 homes in Dec! Ouch! Still that beats the 92 homes we had for sale last April. 

There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. These numbers have softened a bit more with 116 homes for sale in Oct, 105 in Nov and 107 in Dec. Overall the market is stronger in Simi Valley and Wood Ranch than a year ago with higher prices for home owners to enjoy. We’ll see if 2014 can build some more predictable inventory  increases and sales momentum in this market.

 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their SFD market grow from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June and peak at 200 homes in July. Then like most of the West County we saw these numbers fall to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. The 4^th quarter continued the trend with a quick 187 SFD home peak falling to 167 homes in Nov and 128 homes in Dec. So we are now back to 1^st quarter SFD inventory levels.

Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month during the 3rd quarter and the first 2 months of the 4^th quarter. Dec saw these numbers spike down to 27 townhomes in the inventory.

It appears that the total home inventory (SFD & condos) grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and retreated back to 155 homes by December. This is still an improvement over 12 months ago.  

Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. During the 4^th quarter we saw total home sales slip to 132 homes in Oct, 95 homes in Nov and hold at 99 homes for Dec.

One troubling trend in TO and Newbury Park is the rapidly declining number of new listings coming to market. We had 84 homes come to market in Oct, 67 homes in Nov and a horrible tiny 32 homes come to market in Dec! This in comparison to the 117 homes which came to market in June, 112 homes in July and 104 homes in August. Obviously, there are some real market issues at work with sellers in the Conejo Valley.

 

Agoura Hills & Oak Park saw a strengthening 3^rd quarter market which like most of Ventura County has gone a bit sour in the 4^th quarter. Total home inventory has dropped from 103 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Dec. New monthly listings have fallen through the floor from 43 homes in October to 30 homes in November – continuing down to 14 homes in December!

Buyers are still prowling the neighborhoods of Agoura Hills with sales remaining fairly stable at 37 homes in Oct and 32 home sales in each of Nov and Dec.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood has seen a decline in total properties for sale, falling from 131 homes in Oct to 120 homes in Nov and finally 118 homes in Dec. The total number of new listings dropped from 43 homes in Oct to 22 and 23 homes respectively in Nov and Dec.

Surprisingly the number of homes selling each month during the 4^th quarter has remained fairly constant with 42 homes selling in Oct, 39 in Nov and 40 in Dec.

Summary  It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets this year has been a gradual increase in the size of our home inventory for the 1^st through the 3rd quarters, with some shrinkage in the 4^th quarter. A major trend has been the number of home sales increasing through August and then decreasing through the end of the year in most markets.

A disturbing trend has been the declining number of new listings coming to market in the 4^th quarter and by the gradually increasing number of days on market required to sell a new listing. Sellers are not rushing to list their homes and buyers are taking longer to make up their minds to purchase. This is like a knife edge balance with both buyers and sellers uncertain of the market they are facing for the new year.

Who can blame them? Some of the issues they must weigh in on include: rising interest rates, tightening buyer requirements for FHA and VA loans that are scheduled to take effect 1 Jan 2014, a new government budget scheduled to take effect in February, Obama care requirements for not only individual users but small and larger business concerns.

On the plus side we are seeing vigorous stock market growth, decreasing unemployment and a slowly evolving world economy.  Short sales and foreclosures have not gone away, but they are a much smaller part of our current real estate market.    Over 80 million Americans   -              “Echo Boomers”  -  are now reaching the traditional first time home buyer age of 29 to 35.

We have many new challenges for 2014, and also some positive changes for both buyers and sellers to look forward to.  I believe we can look forward to a better 2014 real estate market.  

 

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

 

Call me for a free up-to-date market analysis of your homes’ value.

Please do not consider this a solicitation if your home is listed with another broker. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

All comments are those of the author who is solely responsible for their content.

3rd Quarter 2013 Ventura County Market Analysis

   3^rd Quarter 2013 Ventura County Market Analysis

(July, August September) 

Camarillo has seen its’ market shrink significantly this quarter. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 163 homes in July to 130 homes in September. On a month by month basis we saw the number of homes that came to market drop from 72 single family homes for July to 52 homes in August and finally 28 homes for the month of September. Yikes! Wrong direction!

The number of actual sales dropped from 110 homes in July to 102 homes in August and dropped again to 79 homes in September. This may indicate buyers are a little tired of rising home prices and higher mortgage interest rates which have increased by a point since January.

As home prices have risen (up 15% – 20% over the last twelve months depending on who you choose to quote) the lower priced condo and townhome markets have gotten more popular. The number of townhome properties coming to market has been hovering around 10 homes each month. Also, the average length of time required to sell these condos and townhomes has been dropping from the beginning of the quarter at 71 days in July to 53 days in August and finally 48 days in September. This trend shows fairly strong buyer demand.

Nicer townhome prices now overlap the sale prices of low end single family homes. This puts buyers into the quandry of  “Do I buy a nice townhome with a $$$ Home Owners Association Fee or do I buy a fixer upper single family home that needs a lot of work, but which might not have an HOA.”   Tough choices.  

Oxnard has had a fairly constant number of properties for sale compared to Camarillo. There were 144 single family detached (SFD) homes on the market in July. Then came a big jump up to 164 homes in August which fell back almost exactly to where it had been before at 143 homes in September. The number of new listings coming to market each month has been relatively constant, ranging from 79 to 86 homes.

The number of properties which have sold each month has increased from 110 homes in July to 125 homes in September. So… where Camarillos’ market has diminished in the last 3 months, Oxnards’ market has been stronger with a big spike in August, returning close to July’s numbers in September.

Ventura is experiencing a steady upward trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has grown from 133 homes in July to 140 homes in August and finally 150 homes in September. Most of that increase came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which rose from 104 homes in July to 113 homes in August and 127 homes in September.

There are a few signs of weakness however, in the increasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has risen from 54 days to 68 days while condos which used to sell in 36 days, now require an average 51 days to close.

The total number of homes which sold in July was 96 and this number dropped to 78 homes in August and 77 homes in September. So Ventura has more homes coming to market each month but the actual number of homes selling each month has dropped. If this trend were to continue, I would expect to see home prices begin to moderate or soften a bit from the huge monthly increases in home prices that we saw earlier this year.

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual increase in their home inventories (like Ventura).  In Santa Paula 33 homes were available in July, 35 homes in August and 42 homes in September.

 The number of SFD home sales rose from 11 homes sold in July, peaked in August with 18 homes sold, then dropped back to 14 homes sold in September.  Fillmore home sales were 10 homes, 15 homes and back to 10 homes in September. Fillmore is often a smaller carbon copy to Santa Paula’s market. This quarter at least, their inventories followed Ventura’s trend, while the number of their home sales followed Oxnard’s trend.  

Moorpark has seen market changes very similar to Oxnard with total home inventory increasing from 49 homes in July, spiking up to 66 homes in August and retracing a bit to 60 homes in September.

The number of home sales has dropped overall from 39 homes in July, with a spike in August to 46 homes and then falling back to 32 homes for September. Also, the time it takes to sell a SFD home has risen during these three months from 44 days in July, to 54 days in August and again to 78 days in September. Buyers here may be responding to the higher interest rates and higher home prices.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are still seeing an uptrend in the number of homes for sale. The SFD market has seen its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September.

There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. Sound familiar? Also, the length of time it takes to sell a SFD home has basically doubled from Julys’ 37 days to 70 days in September.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park have seen their market inventory in Single Family Detached homes (SFD) shrink from 200 homes in July to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. This is in stark contrast to the second quarter where the inventory grew from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June.

Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month this quarter.

It appears that the home inventory grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and is shrinking a bit for the early Fall. I think it is safe to say this is typical of most of the rest of Ventura County as well.

Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. This is a stronger sales market than most of the other towns in West Ventura County, confirmed with fairly consistent sale times of roughly 55 to 65 Days On Market (DOM).

Westlake Village & Agoura Hills is a slightly smaller market than TO and Newbury Park with a home inventory which has grown from 92 homes(vs 136 for TO/NP) at the beginning of the 2^nd quarter to 153 homes (vs 197 for TO/NP) at the end of the 3^rd quarter.  That is a 62 home increase in inventory in 6 months – or roughly an increase of 10 homes per month. That’s a solid achievement.

Sales continued to increase through July with 54 homes selling, then 64 homes in August. September saw what I’m hoping is just a temporary spike down to 46 homes sold. DOM has risen from July’s 73 days to September’s 89 days for SFD homes. Overall I’d say that Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are fairly strong markets, even allowing for the September drop in sales.

Summary  It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets is a gradual decrease in the size of our home inventory, with the number of home sales increasing through August. Camarillo’s weak market being one major exception and Westlake/Agoura Hills being a stronger market exception. September saw a decrease in the number of home sales in most local markets. This may be a reflection of weak buyer demand due to high home prices, higher mortgage interest rates or maybe just the natural slowing we often see when summer is over and families get ready to send kids to school again.

I’m not ready to get alarmed by last months weaker trends, but I do think what happens in the next several months will be crucial in determining what direction our market is actually moving. Just the way I see it.

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     www.markthorngren.com  BRE#01413932                                                                                                                                     Like me on facebook at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor

Ventura County Market Analysis for August 2013

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory grow from 136 homes in June to 163 Homes by the end of July and then to 168 homes by the end of August. Not much change in the last month but still a small increase in total inventory.  The number of homes that came on the market for August was down by about 25% from 82 homes to 61 homes. The total number of homes sold was down slightly from 110 to 102 homes. Overall I’d say Camarillo has maintained most of  its’ market strength in most categories except for fewer sellers in August.  

Oxnard has a bit larger market inventory than Camarillo with inventory increasing from 197 homes in June to 209 in July to 225 in August! The number of homes which came to market stayed fairly constant at 79 in August. The number of homes which went under contract increased from 149 in July to 161 in August which is a very nice trend. Sales have remained fairly constant between 110 and 120 homes per month over the last 3 months which interestingly enough is very close to Camarillo’s sales numbers.

Ventura is experiencing steady inventory growth with 115 homes on the market in June, 133 in July and 140 in August. However, the number of homes that have gone into escrow has slowly decreased from a high of 111 homes in June to 95 homes in August. The number of homes sold during each month has decreased slightly as well from 94 and 96 home in June and July to just 78 homes sold in August. Maybe Ventura’s buyers are taking a little break.

Santa Paula and Fillmore are proportionately smaller markets than most others in Ventura County. Santa Paula averages just over 30 homes for sale per month, while Fillmore stays around 15 to 20 homes each month. Santa Paula saw a jump in sales in August from an average of 10 homes per month in June and July to 22 homes in August. Likewise, Fillmore saw an increase from an average of about 10 homes sold in June and again in July, to 15 homes sold in August.  We don’t see big numbers with these towns, but they are headed in the right direction.

Moorpark has seen a strong growth in inventory over the last 3 months. With just 44 homes on the market in June, increasing slightly to 49 homes in July and then jumping up to 66 homes in August. That’s close to a 30% jump in inventory in the last month. Unfortunately, the number of homes sold has remained fairly constant at between 40 to 45 homes over the last 3 months. Also, the number of homes going into escrow took a dive from 61 homes in July to 37 homes in August. Again, it appears that buyers took a little break in August.  

Simi Valley and Wood Ranch have seen steady growth in home inventory from 133 homes in June to 140 homes in July and 156 homes in August. That was a pretty nice jump in August which our buyers can surely use. Like many other towns in Ventura County, Simi Valley and Wood Ranch are also experiencing a decrease in the number of homes going into escrow, down from a high of 177 homes in June, to 153 homes in July, and finally 142 homes in August. Just to confuse the issue, the actual number of homes sold has steadily increased from 116 homes in June, to 135 homes in July, to 148 homes in August. Could it be possible that there have been a number of homes in escrow for more than 30 days which are finally closing? That might indicate that many of these homes were distressed sales which are finally resolving themselves. (Distressed sales like short sales, foreclosures or bankruptcy sales typically have longer escrow periods than normal sales).  With the number of homes selling (148) nearly matching the number of homes which came to market in August(156), this is a strong market.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw large increases in all our market categories from June to July, but reversing across the board in August - except for the number of homes going into escrow in August. This should mean we will see an increase in the number of total sales in September over previous months. Sales bounced from 120 homes in June to 140 in homes in July, and back to 120 homes again in August. The number of homes going into escrow did the reverse by dipping from 171 homes in June, to a low of 158 homes in July, then rebounding to 182 homes in August. Go figure. Overall I’d say this market is ratcheting its’ way upwards and I would guess we’ll see stronger numbers for them this Fall.

Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are experiencing a bit larger increase in inventory than TO and Newbury Park, with the number of homes for sale growing from 136 homes in June to 139 homes in July and 152 homes in August. The number of homes coming to market has ranged between 48 and 57 homes each month while the number of homes sold has risen from 54 homes each in June and July to 64 homes in August. That’s roughly a 3 month inventory of homes but with a larger number of homes selling each month (64 in Aug) than coming to market (48 in Aug). Again with more homes coming to market each month and more homes selling each month, this market is healing quickly.

In summary, it appears to me that we are seeing steady improvement in our Ventura County Market. More homes are coming into each of the inventories and total sales are increasing in most cases. It’s easy to read more into these numbers than we should, since we are just examining the last three months, however compared to last January’s numbers, the trends are very clear. Our market is strengthening.

Just the way I see it.

Mark Thorngren

Movewest Realty  -  Mark@movewest.com  -  www.facebook.com/MarkThorngrenRealtor

BRE Lic. #01413932  -  (805)443-3366  -  www.markthorngren.com

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis - 2nd Quarter 2013 April - May - June

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis – 2^nd Quarter 2013

April - May - June

This month I’ve added Santa Paula, Fillmore, Bardsdale & Piru to this monthly market snapshot. Now we truly have a comprehensive look at Ventura County’s Real Estate Market.  Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are also included as part of the Conejo Valley even though they are actually in Los Angeles County.

So what’s going on? Our market is healing. Home inventory is still low but for the last 3 months it has been gradually growing. Prices continue to skyrocket in the county at rates we haven’t seen since 2006. Interest rates are continuing a 6 week trend of upward motion and topped 4% at the end of June for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

Distressed sales which include short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcy sales are now the exception rather than the rule. They are still a significant part of the local market but they continue to shrink in the percentage of our market that they represent.  That’s a good thing.

Here is a look at some of the specific market trends for Ventura County:

 

Camarillo

Total inventory since April has risen from a low of 80 single family detached (SFD) homes to 125 homes at the end of June. That’s a very encouraging trend. The number of properties which came to market in the month of April was 39, May - 43 and now in June - 58. As prices increase, more folks will be able to refinance or sell at a profit, so as long as prices continue to rise, I would predict inventory to continue rising as well.

Condos went from 9 homes to 17 and back to 11 homes for sale, with 10 to 15 homes selling each month, so no major trend changes here.

Our local newspaper – “The Acorn” reported this week that 2 new apartment complexes and 1 large Townhome project are planned for the Springville Exit area (West edge of town) as part of a city's "Springville Specific Plan" . "Rancho Associates of Beverly Hills, plans to construct 130 three and four bedroom condos. About 26 condos are designated as affordable housing for seniors. The Springville Specific Plan will develop 95 acres of former farmland into an additional 384 unit apartment complex behind the Hampton Inn and Suites. A second apartment complex will contain 163 units which back up to the 101. Construction for all three projects is to begin during the summer of 2014. 

 

 

Oxnard

Oxnard is the largest town in Ventura County so it has an advantage to us in magnifying any strong trends. It shows us more clearly what is happening than some of the smaller towns. Total inventory has risen from April’s 104 SFD homes to 149 homes by the end of June. The month of April saw 40 homes come to market in Oxnard, followed by 49 in May and 67 in June. That is a nice trend for Buyers and Sellers. Average time on the market before selling has been hovering around 70 to 75 days. 

The condo market has remained flat at between 25 and 35 homes coming to market each month and maybe 25 to 35 actually selling. Inventory has hovered between 50 and 60 homes each month.

New homes continue to be built at “Riverpark” and “The Hideaway” but no word on the 2^nd phase of “Port 121” in the Seabridge Community.

 

Ventura (San Buenaventura)

The market in Ventura is more typical of the West County. We are seeing Oxnard trends but smaller numbers. Total SFD home inventory rose from 79 homes in April to 97 at the end of June.  April saw 32 homes come to market, May saw 34 and April rose to 51 homes! Slowly but surely this market is improving. The number of SFD homes which have come to market since January and not sold usually increases from month to month. This is usually a condition of sale price or home condition. In Ventura this number has actually shrunk from 74 homes in April to 59 homes in June. That’s a strong market.

Condo inventory has risen from 11 homes to 18 at the end of June. 5 or 10 condos and townhomes come to market each month and sell about as fast as they come to market.

 

Moorpark

Home inventory in Moorpark has not seen any significant growth over the last quarter. Total inventory has remained between 37 and 41 SFD homes and less than 8 condos for the same time frame. An average of 25 homes of both types come to market each month.  That doesn’t mean it is a weak market. Actually, most of the home inventory has turned over during that  3 month period.  This is a small but healthy market. 

The “Highland Development” continues to grow with a recent announcement of a new tract under construction. More to come on that.

 

Simi Valley

Ventura and Simi Valley are very similar in market numbers with Simi Valley just edging out Ventura with market inventory growth from an identical 79 SFD homes in April,  to a nice growth spurt of  97 homes in May and finally 114 homes vs 97 in Ventura for June. The number of SFD homes coming to market each month has remained steady at roughly 50 to 60 homes. As in Moorpark, these homes are selling as fast as they come to market with an average 90 homes selling each month.

Just shy of 20 condos come to market each month and usually sell as fast as they list.

A new home development has been approved according to one of my neighborhood experts for the South edge of town. I need to find out more about this, but I’m told it will be pretty large and require changes to many of the area streets.

 

Thousand Oaks & Newbury Park

Some of the strongest inventory growth in the county has been happening in the Conejo Valley – specifically TO and Newbury Park. April saw 118 Single Family Detached homes on the market. This grew to 135 homes in May and 178 homes by the end of June! The number of homes actually selling has remained fairly constant 98 and 103 homes per month. However, the number of homes which came to market during the month grew from 67 homes in April, to a slightly higher 72 homes in April and then rocketed up to 107 homes by the end of June.

Obviously, home owners are seeing prices that are now approaching a point where they have the freedom to either refinance their homes or sell without taking a loss. I predict more growth in the 3^rd quarter for these cities. The average time on the market for these homes is just over 2 months. Considering that average home prices are some of the highest in the county – this should have a very positive effect on their local economy.

 

Westlake Village & Agoura Hills

Smaller than TO and Newbury Park in market size, but mighty nonetheless, Westlake Village and Agoura Hills have seen steady growth in their numbers. April saw an inventory of 92 homes which grew to 103 homes in May and a bit more to 106 homes in June. We saw the number of homes coming to market each month – grow from 26 homes in April to 37 homes in June. We have seen between 35 and 40 homes sell each month in these communities – basically homes are selling as fast as they come to market. The average sale time has dropped from 151 days to 72 days. That’s a pretty hot market for these two smaller communities.

This is one market where the market for condos and townhomes is growing. The condo inventory grew from 12 homes in April to 16 in May and on up to 30 by the end of June. More condos are coming to market each month now as well – going from 6 to 30 in the same quarter. Average sale time for a condo here is between 2 and 2 ½ months.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore

These two towns will be covered in greater detail next month when I have enough data to see trends. The two months information I have currently collected show our smallest markets but growing just the same, especially in Santa Paula where inventory has grown from 17 homes to 27 in 1 month. Fillmore has grown from 10 SFD homes to 17 in the same time frame.

The condo markets for these 2 towns is very small with less than half a dozen properties for sale in either town. Those that do come to market sell very quickly.

Both of these communities have announced new home developments for the very near future or are actively selling in new home communities like the “Bridges” in Fillmore. 

Summary

Wow! Somebody just threw another light switch in Ventura County. 

Inventory is slowly increasing across the county as prices reach levels high enough to allow sellers to make a profit.  Competition continues to be intense between home buyers and investors. Multiple offers and above list price offers are driving the market upwards. It's not unusual to receive 10 or 20 offers for one nicely priced home in a good area.  

More new construction is happening throughout the county and I would expect that we will sadly wave good bye to many more acres of prime farmland in the next few years. We lose about a thousand acres a year.  Still as prices rise, current owners may be able to find some relief with their ability to refinance into newer, lower interest rate loans if they hurry.

The real unknown is what levels interest rates may reach in the coming months. The recent rate hikes have been significant even with encouraging announcements from the Fed, the US Banking System seems intent on making more profit from higher rate mortgages this year.

Bottom line - Sellers are doing very well. Buyers will do well if they are successful in finding and snagging a home yet this year, but future months will probably see higher prices and mortgage interest rates. The "Good Ole Days" for buyers in Ventura County are gone for good. 

Mark Thorngren                    Movewest Realty  -  (805) 443-3366

Dre Lic #01413932  -  Like me at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor