Ventura County Market Analysis for August 2013

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory grow from 136 homes in June to 163 Homes by the end of July and then to 168 homes by the end of August. Not much change in the last month but still a small increase in total inventory.  The number of homes that came on the market for August was down by about 25% from 82 homes to 61 homes. The total number of homes sold was down slightly from 110 to 102 homes. Overall I’d say Camarillo has maintained most of  its’ market strength in most categories except for fewer sellers in August.  

Oxnard has a bit larger market inventory than Camarillo with inventory increasing from 197 homes in June to 209 in July to 225 in August! The number of homes which came to market stayed fairly constant at 79 in August. The number of homes which went under contract increased from 149 in July to 161 in August which is a very nice trend. Sales have remained fairly constant between 110 and 120 homes per month over the last 3 months which interestingly enough is very close to Camarillo’s sales numbers.

Ventura is experiencing steady inventory growth with 115 homes on the market in June, 133 in July and 140 in August. However, the number of homes that have gone into escrow has slowly decreased from a high of 111 homes in June to 95 homes in August. The number of homes sold during each month has decreased slightly as well from 94 and 96 home in June and July to just 78 homes sold in August. Maybe Ventura’s buyers are taking a little break.

Santa Paula and Fillmore are proportionately smaller markets than most others in Ventura County. Santa Paula averages just over 30 homes for sale per month, while Fillmore stays around 15 to 20 homes each month. Santa Paula saw a jump in sales in August from an average of 10 homes per month in June and July to 22 homes in August. Likewise, Fillmore saw an increase from an average of about 10 homes sold in June and again in July, to 15 homes sold in August.  We don’t see big numbers with these towns, but they are headed in the right direction.

Moorpark has seen a strong growth in inventory over the last 3 months. With just 44 homes on the market in June, increasing slightly to 49 homes in July and then jumping up to 66 homes in August. That’s close to a 30% jump in inventory in the last month. Unfortunately, the number of homes sold has remained fairly constant at between 40 to 45 homes over the last 3 months. Also, the number of homes going into escrow took a dive from 61 homes in July to 37 homes in August. Again, it appears that buyers took a little break in August.  

Simi Valley and Wood Ranch have seen steady growth in home inventory from 133 homes in June to 140 homes in July and 156 homes in August. That was a pretty nice jump in August which our buyers can surely use. Like many other towns in Ventura County, Simi Valley and Wood Ranch are also experiencing a decrease in the number of homes going into escrow, down from a high of 177 homes in June, to 153 homes in July, and finally 142 homes in August. Just to confuse the issue, the actual number of homes sold has steadily increased from 116 homes in June, to 135 homes in July, to 148 homes in August. Could it be possible that there have been a number of homes in escrow for more than 30 days which are finally closing? That might indicate that many of these homes were distressed sales which are finally resolving themselves. (Distressed sales like short sales, foreclosures or bankruptcy sales typically have longer escrow periods than normal sales).  With the number of homes selling (148) nearly matching the number of homes which came to market in August(156), this is a strong market.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw large increases in all our market categories from June to July, but reversing across the board in August - except for the number of homes going into escrow in August. This should mean we will see an increase in the number of total sales in September over previous months. Sales bounced from 120 homes in June to 140 in homes in July, and back to 120 homes again in August. The number of homes going into escrow did the reverse by dipping from 171 homes in June, to a low of 158 homes in July, then rebounding to 182 homes in August. Go figure. Overall I’d say this market is ratcheting its’ way upwards and I would guess we’ll see stronger numbers for them this Fall.

Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are experiencing a bit larger increase in inventory than TO and Newbury Park, with the number of homes for sale growing from 136 homes in June to 139 homes in July and 152 homes in August. The number of homes coming to market has ranged between 48 and 57 homes each month while the number of homes sold has risen from 54 homes each in June and July to 64 homes in August. That’s roughly a 3 month inventory of homes but with a larger number of homes selling each month (64 in Aug) than coming to market (48 in Aug). Again with more homes coming to market each month and more homes selling each month, this market is healing quickly.

In summary, it appears to me that we are seeing steady improvement in our Ventura County Market. More homes are coming into each of the inventories and total sales are increasing in most cases. It’s easy to read more into these numbers than we should, since we are just examining the last three months, however compared to last January’s numbers, the trends are very clear. Our market is strengthening.

Just the way I see it.

Mark Thorngren

Movewest Realty  -  Mark@movewest.com  -  www.facebook.com/MarkThorngrenRealtor

BRE Lic. #01413932  -  (805)443-3366  -  www.markthorngren.com