Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 2nd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

2nd Quarter 2014 - (April, May, June)

 

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory of homes for sale grow from a low of 122 in March, to 178 in April, 234 in May and finally 252 homes for June! We are still far below a more normal inventory of homes but we are headed in the right direction. However, the number of homes coming on the market during each month has been a little weak. April showed 70 homes come to market, May spiked to 99 and then we dropped all the way back to 78 homes in June. The number of homes which actually sold this last quarter has been amazingly constant. April showed 78 homes sold, May had 75 homes sell and June had 81 homes sell. Single family homes are selling in about 2 ½ to 3 months, while condos take only about a month and a half.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County decreased to $529,450,  down  -2% in May from April. The median price of a home in Camarillo dropped to $532,500,  down -2.3% from April.

Oxnard as usual is mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 230 homes in March to a peak of 318 homes in June.  The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, 126 homes in May and back down to 108 homes in June. Still that is better than the average of  94 homes during the first quarter of this year. Total Oxnard home sales are up over the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May and 135 homes sold in June. There just isn’t much wind in the sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, a drop of  -10.5% from April.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 218 homes in June. Like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes coming to market each month has stayed flat with 82 homes in April, 73 in May and 89 in June. Total sales have also remained flat with 94 in April, falling to 82 in May and 86 in June.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000,  down  -2.9%  from April. 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a gradual increase in total home inventories.  Santa Paula especially has developed an increasing trend over the past quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June.   A good month saw 15 homes come to market (April & June), while May saw only 7 homes come to market. Sales in Santa Paula have remained between 13 & 14 per month while Fillmore has seen from 6 to 12 homes sell each month.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000,  down   -13.8%, while Fillmore was $336,000 up 7.5% from April!

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June.  New listings jumped from 31 in April to 39 in May and back a bit to 29 homes in June. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in April to 52 homes, up from 37 homes for March, and trended back down to 46 homes in May and 34 homes in June. (right back to March’s numbers). Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and 33 for June.  

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April!

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June.  The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, 110 in May, then up a bit to 130 homes in June.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, down  -3.6% from April.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their total inventory slip from 234 homes in April to 217 homes in May and then rocket up to 327 homes in June!  The monthly increases went from 101 homes in April to 104 homes in May and again jump up to 144 homes in June!  Total sales of condos and SFD started at 114 homes in April, dropped to 64 homes in May and jumped right back to 117 homes in June. There is some market uncertainty here but the numbers are much better generally than for the first quarter of  2014.

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  down  -5.4% from April.                   Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  down -14.4% from April.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a stronger market during the second quarter. Total market inventory has climbed from between 92 and 97 homes during the first quarter to 119 homes in April, 127 homes in May and back to 117 homes in June. That’s still an improvement over the first quarter. The monthly number of homes coming to market has fallen a bit from 53 homes in April, to 54 homes in May back down to 40 homes in June.  Total home sales have remained flat between 47 and 53 homes for the quarter.

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000,  up 15.1% from April.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June. Monthly sales began at 42 homes for April, remained flat at 39 homes in May and bounced to 58 homes in June.

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500.

 

Summary

I just finished tabulating data for July sales and see that inventory in Ventura County is gradually increasing and as of the end of July sales are increasing slightly in San Buenaventura & the Conejo Valley but remain flat in the rest of the county.   However, even though sales were better in the second quarter than the first, home listings continue to build our inventory more quickly than they sell. This may add some downward pressure to prices if this trend continues more than a few months. That said, the number of single family home sales increased 4.7% in June to 470 sold units.  Condo sales fell -5% in June from May totals to 152 sold units.

Single family home sale prices were up a bit from May to June with a county median price of $562,750 up from $529,450 in May. Condo prices rose  5.7% to a median price of $335,500 in May and then fell back to $320,000 in June.  Obviously, the condo market is going to become more important and competitive as the average price of a single family home continues to rise.

(All data from VCCAR Market Report for June and from review of the VCCAR MLS)

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932