Mark’s
Ventura County Real Estate Review for 2018
Welcome to my real estate year in review for Ventura
County! I hope you find this information
useful and thought provoking as our local market often defies the trends
happening nationwide. Most of you
understand that real estate is changing nationwide. Homes are taking longer to
sell, prices in many markets are weakening and buyers are no longer
automatically writing offers for full list price.
I recently read an article in the Ventura County
Star which stated that home sales dropped from October to November about 18.5%
and sale prices dropped 3.4% from October to November. These numbers are all
based on research done by CoreLogic data – an Irvine based research firm. The
obvious inference from this article is that our market is plunging. Not
true.
The 27 Dec’18 issue of the Ventura County Star fails
to explain that our market is cyclic. We see seasonal changes in price and
number of sales and cumulative days needed to sell. If you look back the last 5
years, you will see the same basic annual trends. Home prices are rising.
The market starts each year with a little
uncertainty, finds its feet, and as Spring approaches, more homes come to
market. Home prices gradually increase, sale times shorten and these trends
peak between June and September. Our market loses some steam in the late Fall, with
continued weakening during the holiday season. I have MLS performance charts
for each of the last 5 years that reflect this same cycle.
Many long time residents saw our real estate market
peak in 2006 and dive sharply downwards to the point where it contributed to
our failed national economy in 2008. We saw the beginning of the local market
recovery roughly in 2012. We still have
some short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcy sales, but nothing like we had a
few years ago. What we see now are more and more signs of a stronger economy
monitored by the Fed to prevent runaway inflation. This governmental oversight translates
into higher home mortgage interest rates.
Home mortgage interest rates were below 3.5% just a
little over a year ago. Rates peaked close to 5.0% earlier this year and
currently are close to 4.5% for a normal 30 year fixed rate mortgage . Rates
are expected to increase again this year - 2019. None
of this is news.
What I would like to share with you is the Ventura
County Real Estate Market measured each of the last five years from Jan – Dec
and with the real results to help separate hype from reality.
Here is some of what I’ve found…
Ventura County has seen consistent home
price increases over the last 5 years.
The median home price in Dec 2014 was $479,000 – up
7.6% from the previous year
The median home price in Dec 2015 was $512,000 – up
6.9% from the previous year
The median in 2016 was $539,000 – up 5.3%
The median in 2017 was $570,000 – up 5.7%
The median in 2018 was $599,000 – up 5.1%
The total five year increase in median home prices
for Ventura County reached just over 30%!
The average cumulative time in the MLS measures how
quickly homes are selling. Shorter times indicate a stronger market. That time measured in the month of Dec of 2014
was 98 days, following in annual order - 93 days, 91 days, 81 days and finally
83 days for this last Dec 2018. So by
this measurement, our market is stronger than 2014, 15 or 16 and nearly the
same as 2017.
Of the 10 largest towns in Ventura County, five of
them - Camarillo (5.2%), Oxnard (5.2%), Simi Valley (5.4%), Ventura (8.3%), and
Port Hueneme (9.4%) all topped out at over a 5% increase in home values for
2018!
Consistent long term increases in Ventura County
home prices reflect strong buyer demand, our 2018 annual home price increase
above 5% in much of the county gives definition to this strength and finally,
the reduction in sale time over the last five years adds a time dimension to the
strength of this remarkable market.
So, actual market data examined in a longer annual
perspective, show the Ventura County Real Estate Market is not plunging; our
market is doing just fine.
Mark Thorngren
Contact me for real market information on your town
or home. (805)
443-3366 or mark@markthorngren.com The Omni Group - 3635 W 5th St •
Oxnard, CA 93030 • Cal BRE# 01413932 Like me at: Mark
Thorngren – The Omni Group
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