Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis - 3rd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

3rd Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)

Camarillo has seen small but steady gains in home inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost stale market.

Last year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for 2014. We had more summer home sales in 2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to 79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September 2014 ). 

Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79 days on the market – about the same as 2014.

The September median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County was $540,000,  down  -5.1% from August. The median price of a SFD home in Camarillo was also $540,000 up from April’s $532,500, but down -5.1% from the August median. So median price increase averages about $1,600/month.

One of the interesting things comparing these two summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from 150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of 2013’s increase.

As I write this in the second week of October there are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo. There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only 40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.

Obviously, with only 40 homes out of roughly 265 homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD are mostly out of their reach.

Oxnard The number of homes for sale has risen from 214 homes in September 2013 to 314 Homes as of September 2014. This is down from the June’14 peak of 344 homes. Still, this is an average increase in inventory of 100 homes year over year. The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, peaking at 134 homes in June and dropping back to 117 homes in Sept. 

Total Oxnard home sales in Sept – 108 homes – are close to matching the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May, 135 homes sold in June, 129 for July and 132 for Aug, before dropping back to Septembers 108 home sales. There still isn’t much wind in the sale sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, has increased to $410,000 for Sept.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 223 homes in Sept. The number of homes coming to market each month has trended downward during this third quarter from 91 homes in July, to 85 homes in August and 76 homes in September. Total sales fell from 97 in July, and 99 in August… to 87 by September.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000. The median rose slightly for the summer months and has returned once more to $505,000 for September.

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen no appreciable increase in total home inventories during the 3^rd quarter.  Santa Paula saw an increasing trend during the past 2^nd quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June. The 3^rd quarter saw the inventory freeze at between 29 homes in July and 33 homes in September. These numbers are actually much weaker than last summer’13 numbers which climbed as high as 42 homes on the market for Sept’13. Total sales for Sept’14 were 8 homes sold – less than half the 20 homes sold in Sept’13.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000, rising to $412,000 by September. That is a very steep $60,000 median price increase in just 4 months.

Fillmore had a median price of $336,000 last May and rose to $354,500 by this Sept.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June. The 3^rd quarter saw a more gradual increase in total inventory to 112 homes. New monthly listings rose slightly from 36 in July to 42 by September.  The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers have bounced between 34 last June, to 42 in July, 43 in August and fell back to 30 for Sept. Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and never rising above that number until 36 homes sold in September.  So inventory has gradually increased while sales have remained remarkably flat for the 3^rd quarter in Moorpark.

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April! Now in September the median price has dropped back to $609,000.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June. Then the 3^rd quarter saw a steady decline in inventory from 328 homes in July to 304 in August, to 286 this September. The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, to 131 homes in July, 131 homes again in August and now dropping to 115 homes for September.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, and has since risen over the 3^rd quarter to $510,000 for September.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  Have seen their total home inventory decline slightly from 355 homes in July, to 344 homes in Aug, to 339 homes in Sept. This is still a much stronger market than a year ago when the September’13 inventory was just 197 homes. The number of home sales have declined over the 3^rd quarter from 132 homes in July, to 119 homes in August and just 93 homes sold in September’14. This compares to 136 homes sold in September’13. 

The market demand has been nearly identical between Sept’14 and Sept’14 with the number of Days On Market or DOM (the number of days needed to sell a home) at 57 last year vs 55 this year.  

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  and  $717,500 by Sept!  That is a $100,000 increase in median home prices in 4 months. No wonder sales have dropped over the 3^rd quarter!

Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  and has risen a slightly to $639,000.  (ref: www.terradatum.com )

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  saw their total market inventory build to a peak of 136 homes in July then taper back to 128 in August and 122 homes in September’14. Sales for Sept’14 were at 42 homes. 

  

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000, dropping to $685,000 in September, dropping more than 23% from August numbers!

Agoura Hills Saw it’s median home price drop year over year from $837,500 in Sept’13 to $542,599 in Sept’14. (ref: www.ClarusMarketMetrics.com ) We have to remember that Oak Park and Agoura Hills are smaller markets than most Conejo Valley communities, so it takes fewer home sales to skew the numbers.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. These numbers peaked in June and July at 175 homes and 174 homes on market respectively, then dropping slightly to 165 homes for September.  Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June.

The 3^rd quarter saw monthly new home inventory numbers reverse themselves with 60 homes coming to market in July, 47 in August and 42 in September. Monthly sales were fairly strong in July with 54 homes sold, August with 53 homes sold, tapering to 39 homes sold in September

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500. This September the numbers had fallen to $830,000 for a median home price.

Summary

County wide inventory is generally up over last year. Demand (DOM) has not appreciably increased, possibly because prices are still rising at a modest rate with some exceptions in the East Conejo Valley. September has been the weakest month of the 3^rd quarter for most criteria studied, but this a traditionally weak month. From all indications I study, the 4^th quarter will probably be an even weaker quarter for most of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren      (805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 014139

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author. Additional blogs found at:  http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/   or    http://activerain.trulia.com/blogs/markthorngren

Call for a free market review of your home. 

(805) 443-3366

Mark’s Camarillo Market Analysis 3rd Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)

Camarillo has seen small but steady gains in home inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost stale market.

Last year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for 2014. We had more summer home sales in 2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to 79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September 2014 ). Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79 days on the market – about the same as 2014. 

One of the interesting things comparing these two summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from 150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of 2013’s increase.

As I write this in the second week of October there are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo. There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only 40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.

Obviously, with only 40 homes out of 265 homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD (single family detached) are mostly out of their reach.

The national average age for first time home buyers is between the ages of 28 and 34. Echo Boomers are the largest demographic in the US (Echo Boomers or Gen Y – the sons and daughters of the Baby Boomer generation) with our household growth expected to increase by more than 1.25 million people annually for the next decade (according to a Harvard Study). Echo Boomers are just now entering the age range for first time home buyers and will continue to swell this sector for at least the next 10 years.

According to the National Association of Realtors = NAR, first time home buyers presently comprise 37% of the market nationally. Only 15% of homes in Camarillo are selling for less than $400,000. The national median home price for first time home buyers is $155,000. Obviously, Camarillo will not be attracting large numbers of first time home buyers. Those younger families that do settle here will most likely be renting or living with relatives.

On the other end of the demographic scale, the older Baby Boomers are now beginning to retire. Many of these folks would like to downsize and avoid many of the maintenance expenses and challenges that larger homes present. They are often looking for simple one story homes without stairs to challenge their later years. In 2009 the National Association of Home Builders and the MetLife Mature Market Institute produced a study of Americans age 55 and older which indicated that these folks wanted to retire close to shopping centers and medical facilities and prefer suburban living. The five most asked for home amenities for this group were:

1)      A washer and dryer with the home.

2)      Adequate storage space

3)      Windows that open easily

4)      A master bedroom on the ground floor

5)      A thermostat that is easy to use.

The newest home building projects in Camarillo in the lower price ranges feature high density, solar-powered multi story townhomes or multi story rentals.

Village Commons in Village at the Park –  are 2 or 3 bedroom townhomes priced from $474,990 to $519,990.

AMLI Spanish Hills – 3 story rentals currently priced from $1,796/month to $2,666/month. 

D R Horton is currently developing the Somerset Tract in Village at the Park which will feature 3 models of single family homes from roughly 3,000 sq ft and 3 bedrooms to just under 3,400 sq ft for a 4 bedroom home.

My point is that most of the new townhomes and rentals are multi story adventures in vertical living, while the Somerset Tract is obviously not going to be lower priced housing. If we assume that new housing is pointing the way to new housing trends, I would hazard the statement that current new home developments are not pointing the way for typical First Time Home Buyers, Echo Boomers or aging Baby Boomers.

In Camarillo, younger first time home buyers will probably be renters. Baby Boomers will have difficulty downsizing to new single story homes since there really aren’t many available. Baby Boomers will need to become familiar with older neighborhoods. Older neighborhoods still offer single story homes, yards, and “thermostats that are easy to use.” I would also hazard the statement that Camarillo is similar to most of the other cities of Ventura County in these trends. New, relatively low cost, single story home developments are like the mountain lion and the condor, facing extinction in Ventura County.

Just the way I see it,

Mark Thorngren

BRE Lic #01413932

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author.

Additional blogs found at http://markthorngren.blogspot.com/  or  http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 2nd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

2nd Quarter 2014 - (April, May, June)

 

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory of homes for sale grow from a low of 122 in March, to 178 in April, 234 in May and finally 252 homes for June! We are still far below a more normal inventory of homes but we are headed in the right direction. However, the number of homes coming on the market during each month has been a little weak. April showed 70 homes come to market, May spiked to 99 and then we dropped all the way back to 78 homes in June. The number of homes which actually sold this last quarter has been amazingly constant. April showed 78 homes sold, May had 75 homes sell and June had 81 homes sell. Single family homes are selling in about 2 ½ to 3 months, while condos take only about a month and a half.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County decreased to $529,450,  down  -2% in May from April. The median price of a home in Camarillo dropped to $532,500,  down -2.3% from April.

Oxnard as usual is mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 230 homes in March to a peak of 318 homes in June.  The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, 126 homes in May and back down to 108 homes in June. Still that is better than the average of  94 homes during the first quarter of this year. Total Oxnard home sales are up over the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May and 135 homes sold in June. There just isn’t much wind in the sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, a drop of  -10.5% from April.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 218 homes in June. Like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes coming to market each month has stayed flat with 82 homes in April, 73 in May and 89 in June. Total sales have also remained flat with 94 in April, falling to 82 in May and 86 in June.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000,  down  -2.9%  from April. 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a gradual increase in total home inventories.  Santa Paula especially has developed an increasing trend over the past quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June.   A good month saw 15 homes come to market (April & June), while May saw only 7 homes come to market. Sales in Santa Paula have remained between 13 & 14 per month while Fillmore has seen from 6 to 12 homes sell each month.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000,  down   -13.8%, while Fillmore was $336,000 up 7.5% from April!

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June.  New listings jumped from 31 in April to 39 in May and back a bit to 29 homes in June. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in April to 52 homes, up from 37 homes for March, and trended back down to 46 homes in May and 34 homes in June. (right back to March’s numbers). Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and 33 for June.  

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April!

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June.  The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, 110 in May, then up a bit to 130 homes in June.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, down  -3.6% from April.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their total inventory slip from 234 homes in April to 217 homes in May and then rocket up to 327 homes in June!  The monthly increases went from 101 homes in April to 104 homes in May and again jump up to 144 homes in June!  Total sales of condos and SFD started at 114 homes in April, dropped to 64 homes in May and jumped right back to 117 homes in June. There is some market uncertainty here but the numbers are much better generally than for the first quarter of  2014.

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  down  -5.4% from April.                   Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  down -14.4% from April.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a stronger market during the second quarter. Total market inventory has climbed from between 92 and 97 homes during the first quarter to 119 homes in April, 127 homes in May and back to 117 homes in June. That’s still an improvement over the first quarter. The monthly number of homes coming to market has fallen a bit from 53 homes in April, to 54 homes in May back down to 40 homes in June.  Total home sales have remained flat between 47 and 53 homes for the quarter.

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000,  up 15.1% from April.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June. Monthly sales began at 42 homes for April, remained flat at 39 homes in May and bounced to 58 homes in June.

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500.

 

Summary

I just finished tabulating data for July sales and see that inventory in Ventura County is gradually increasing and as of the end of July sales are increasing slightly in San Buenaventura & the Conejo Valley but remain flat in the rest of the county.   However, even though sales were better in the second quarter than the first, home listings continue to build our inventory more quickly than they sell. This may add some downward pressure to prices if this trend continues more than a few months. That said, the number of single family home sales increased 4.7% in June to 470 sold units.  Condo sales fell -5% in June from May totals to 152 sold units.

Single family home sale prices were up a bit from May to June with a county median price of $562,750 up from $529,450 in May. Condo prices rose  5.7% to a median price of $335,500 in May and then fell back to $320,000 in June.  Obviously, the condo market is going to become more important and competitive as the average price of a single family home continues to rise.

(All data from VCCAR Market Report for June and from review of the VCCAR MLS)

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 1st Quarter 2014 ( Jan, Feb, Mar )

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis

1^st Quarter 2014 - (January, February, March)

 

Camarillo is experiencing a suspiciously strong first quarter in home sales. I say suspiciously because the positive changes we are seeing began a bit slowly in January and February and took a marked upswing in March. As I’m writing this, we are in the third week of April and indications are that we are experiencing a continued increase in sales and new listings. We are shifting gears into a much stronger market than last quarter. Traditionally, we see increased sales after April 15 tax time but this year our market started moving ahead in March!   

Much of what we read in the news is how sales were down compared to last year in Feb and March. What these reports fail to emphasize is that our home inventory is higher than last year and the number of new listings is above the levels we saw last year. In Camarillo the number of homes listed each month has remained fairly constant at between 51 and 55 homes for this first quarter.

What’s interesting is the already strong demand for homes in Camarillo is building. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 161 homes in Jan to 122 homes in March. At the same time the number of homes with accepted offers has climbed from 73 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March. The actual number of homes which have made it through escrow and sold has also risen from 37 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March!  That’s a 249% increase in home sales for the first quarter. Most of this happened in March and early indications are that April will be a stronger month.              

Oxnard is once again mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 234 homes in Jan to a peak of 253 homes in Feb and back to 230 homes in March. The number of homes being listed each month has remained fairly constant between 88 and 104 homes or at an average of about 94 homes per month.  However, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow has risen from 51 homes in Dec to 120 homes in Jan, 147 homes in Feb to 186 homes in March! Those numbers will reflect more strongly next month when these homes close escrow and become sold numbers. As it is, home sales rose from 81 homes in Jan to 106 homes in March, for a 31% increase in home sales. Oxnard is on the move.  

Ventura has market numbers that follow between Camarillo on the low side and Oxnard on the high side. It also reflects a gradual gathering of demand in Jan and Feb and a defined spike in sales for March. Average home inventory has remained between 162 to 172 homes. The average  number of homes coming to market is also fairly constant at a rough average of 65 homes per month.  What is exciting is that like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow, has risen from 57 homes last Dec to 75 homes in Jan, then 82 homes in Feb and now bouncing up in March all the way to 107 homes! Again, we will see these numbers next month as a big jump in closed sales.  Closed sales have risen from 53 homes in Jan, to 72 homes in March, for a 36% increase in home sales during the first quarter.    

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen very little change in total home inventories.  Santa Paula has averaged about 40 homes on the market at any given time, while Fillmore averages 20 homes.  Unlike the other towns just discussed, we have seen Santa Paula increase the total number of  listings going into escrow for Jan and Feb but falling a bit in March. Which means the April sold numbers will suffer. Average sold numbers for the 1st quarter did rise from 13 homes in Jan, spiking all the way up to 23 homes in March. The West County spike in March sales was not shared by Fillmore where home sales have actually fallen a bit from 10 in Jan, to 8 in Feb and 6 in March.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 52 homes in Jan to 61 homes in Feb and hold fairly steady at about 58 homes in March. New listings are holding fairly steady at between 20 and 25 homes per month with no obvious trend at this time. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in March to 37 homes, up from an average 22 homes for Jan and Feb. Total closed sales has trended downward from 39 homes in Dec to 26 homes in Jan, to 21 homes in Feb and now 17 homes for March. I would expect these numbers to jump up when the 37 accepted offers for March become closings in April.

Since the supply of monthly new home listings has stagnated, but demand  (as shown by the large number of accepted offers) is high… I think it is safe to say that home prices will continue to rise in Moorpark.

Often, new home construction will add to supply but sell for a premium. Ivy Lane is one of the newer home developments in Moorpark with a sales office that opened March 1 and has already sold out it’s first phase of homes. Some may dispute my characterization of these homes, but they are basically comfortable duplexes. Homes are priced from 430K for 3 bedrooms and 1600 sq ft to 470K for 4 bedrooms and 2000 sq ft.  Considering most 1500 sq ft homes are selling for over 450K and may have been built in the 1960’s, Ivy Lane homes are worth serious consideration.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are making a steady recovery back to 2014’s peak inventory of 196 homes last October. Inventory fell back to a low of 158 homes in Dec. Then the market shifted once again. Jan saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory to 163 homes. Feb jumped to 218 homes and March to 276 homes! Monthly increases in homes coming to market have been substantial. We had 49 homes come to market last Dec, 85 in Jan, 111 in Feb and 139 homes in March!

Accepted offers have risen from 80 in Dec, to 99 in Jan, to 125 in Feb and 157 in March! These homes are in escrow and will need another month to reflect as sold homes. Amazingly, with such strong numbers, the actual number of homes sold for Jan - 72 - was down from the 107 sold in Dec. Feb was even worse with only 53 homes sold. Finally, this last month the numbers jumped back up to 101 homes sold for March. Seeing what is now in the pipeline, I think we can count on much better home sale numbers for April.  

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw their SFD (single family detached) market grow from 143 homes in Jan to 183 homes in Feb and again to 185 homes in March. We have not seen this large of an inventory of SFD since Aug of last year when we had 186 homes on the market. The number of all types of homes listed monthly has steadily increased from 32 last Dec to 77 in Jan, to 88 in Feb and finally shot up to 110 homes last month!

Homes going under contract have climbed a bit more gradually from 101 homes in Jan, to 121 homes in Feb, and to 133 homes in March. Actual home sales have been a bit more erratic, falling from 99 homes sold in Dec, to 80 in Jan, falling again to 67 homes in Feb. Then again last month sales bounced back to 88 homes sold for March! April numbers should be very good.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a more gradual market recovery this last quarter. Total market inventory has remained flat at between 92 and 97 homes. The number of homes coming to market during each month has bounced between 30 and 40 homes with no real change. The most interesting trend is in the number of homes which have recently gone into escrow, up from 44 in Jan, to 55 in Feb and 64 in March. That should make a nice increase in the number of sold properties for April. Currently, the number of homes sold has risen from 25 in Jan to 38 in March. This market is close to where it had peaked last October when 103 homes were on the market and 37 homes sold during the month.   

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood have not yet completely regained the market strength that they had last October. It is true that the number of homes for sale has climbed back from 96 homes in Jan, to 113 in Feb, and 122 in March. This trend is fast approaching last Octobers’ peak, when 131 homes were on the market.

During the month of Oct 2013, we had 43 homes come to market. This March we had 50 homes come to market. Last Oct we had 42 homes sell, while this March gave us 31 home sales. If  I was a betting man, I’d say this market should probably exceed last years’ Oct peak within the next quarter.  I think that forecast actually applies to the whole of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis 4th Quarter 2013 - (October, November, December)

Camarillo has not found it’s sales pace yet. Our local market has been on a roller coaster for the last 12 months. We had a slow start with 42 single family detached homes (SFD) sold in January rising to 86 SFD homes sold in July. In July we had 110 total (SFD & condo) home sales and a remaining home inventory of 163 homes. 82 homes came to market that month which gave us only about a month and a half turnover time for a well-priced home. That was a strong seller’s market. Then interest rates went up a point and we began to hear talk of our government defaulting on it’s budget requirements.

By August we were headed back down again with 60 sales which bottomed at 39 SFD sales in November – roughly where we had been in January.

Our total home inventory including condos usually gives us some warning of sales trends, since the overall number of sales cannot exceed the number of homes for sale. Pretty basic stuff, but in my experience, inventory commonly exceeds sales numbers by a factor of  2 to 5 in a strong sellers’ market. When you get beyond a 6 month inventory of homes you begin to experience more of a buyers market. It has been more than a year since we had what I would call a buyers’ market.

This December we had only 29 new listings (SFD & condo) come to market in Camarillo. 74 homes sold during the month. We had a total home inventory of 191 homes in Nov which dropped to 164 by the end of Dec. That gives us roughly a 2 month inventory of homes (164/74). The expectation that home inventories traditionally increase in January has to be tempered this year by the knowledge that only 29 new listings came to market in Dec. It’s going to take a serious seller mindset change to reverse the downward trend in the size of our housing inventory. We are going to need a larger home inventory to have more home sales and a chance to moderate home prices.

             

Oxnard has similar trends to those of Camarillo with the number of homes coming to market dropping from 103 homes in Oct to 44 homes in Dec. Total home inventory has dropped from 255 homes in Oct to 220 homes in Dec (Not including mobile homes).  The number of homes which have gone into escrow (accepted a buyer’s offer) has dropped from 143 homes in Oct to 117 homes in Nov and further down to 51 homes in Dec! Obviously, Oxnard buyers do not like the current home buying conditions.

Ventura is experiencing a similar trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has dropped from 176 homes in Oct to 165 homes in Nov and finally 136 homes in December. Most of that decrease came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which dropped from 139 homes in Oct to 127 homes in Nov and 104 homes in Dec. This is totally opposite of the trend we discussed in the 3^rd quarter market analysis, where inventories grew from 104 SFD homes in July, to 113 homes in Aug and 127 homes in Sept! What a crazy year!

There are a few signs of strength however, in the decreasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has dropped from 71 days in Oct to 57 days in Dec. Condos which used to sell in 62 days, now require an average 41 days to close. Again, these are reverse of the trends we saw in the 3^rd quarter. As inventories continue to shrink, the competition for available homes is heating up, undoubtedly pushing up home prices.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual decrease in their home inventories  In Santa Paula 57 homes were available in Oct, 37 homes in Nov and 37 homes again in Dec. The number of new listings in Santa Paula has dropped from 22 homes in Oct to 8 in Nov and further down to 4 homes in Dec!

The number of SFD homes for sale has bounced between 10 and 15 homes during the 4^th quarter.  Fillmore homes were actually about the same with the SFD home inventory dropping slightly from 22 homes in Oct to 16 homes in Dec.

Moorpark has one of the stronger real estate markets in the county.  Home sales are not as strong as in the 3^rd quarter but are beginning to rise again. Sales have risen from 31 homes in October to 39 homes in December. The total number of  listings has dropped a bit from 54 homes in Oct to 41 homes in Dec.

What I find encouraging is the fact that the number of new listings coming to market has roughly doubled during the 4^th quarter, from 20 homes in Oct to 38 homes in Dec which is the biggest number we have seen for the year since the 31 homes that came to market in July.

 

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch saw an uptrend in the number of homes for sale through Oct. The SFD market saw its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September. It spiked at 196 homes in Oct and then began a steep retracement – dropping to 178 total properties for sale in Nov and falling once again to 158 homes in Dec! Ouch! Still that beats the 92 homes we had for sale last April. 

There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. These numbers have softened a bit more with 116 homes for sale in Oct, 105 in Nov and 107 in Dec. Overall the market is stronger in Simi Valley and Wood Ranch than a year ago with higher prices for home owners to enjoy. We’ll see if 2014 can build some more predictable inventory  increases and sales momentum in this market.

 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their SFD market grow from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June and peak at 200 homes in July. Then like most of the West County we saw these numbers fall to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. The 4^th quarter continued the trend with a quick 187 SFD home peak falling to 167 homes in Nov and 128 homes in Dec. So we are now back to 1^st quarter SFD inventory levels.

Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month during the 3rd quarter and the first 2 months of the 4^th quarter. Dec saw these numbers spike down to 27 townhomes in the inventory.

It appears that the total home inventory (SFD & condos) grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and retreated back to 155 homes by December. This is still an improvement over 12 months ago.  

Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. During the 4^th quarter we saw total home sales slip to 132 homes in Oct, 95 homes in Nov and hold at 99 homes for Dec.

One troubling trend in TO and Newbury Park is the rapidly declining number of new listings coming to market. We had 84 homes come to market in Oct, 67 homes in Nov and a horrible tiny 32 homes come to market in Dec! This in comparison to the 117 homes which came to market in June, 112 homes in July and 104 homes in August. Obviously, there are some real market issues at work with sellers in the Conejo Valley.

 

Agoura Hills & Oak Park saw a strengthening 3^rd quarter market which like most of Ventura County has gone a bit sour in the 4^th quarter. Total home inventory has dropped from 103 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Dec. New monthly listings have fallen through the floor from 43 homes in October to 30 homes in November – continuing down to 14 homes in December!

Buyers are still prowling the neighborhoods of Agoura Hills with sales remaining fairly stable at 37 homes in Oct and 32 home sales in each of Nov and Dec.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood has seen a decline in total properties for sale, falling from 131 homes in Oct to 120 homes in Nov and finally 118 homes in Dec. The total number of new listings dropped from 43 homes in Oct to 22 and 23 homes respectively in Nov and Dec.

Surprisingly the number of homes selling each month during the 4^th quarter has remained fairly constant with 42 homes selling in Oct, 39 in Nov and 40 in Dec.

Summary  It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets this year has been a gradual increase in the size of our home inventory for the 1^st through the 3rd quarters, with some shrinkage in the 4^th quarter. A major trend has been the number of home sales increasing through August and then decreasing through the end of the year in most markets.

A disturbing trend has been the declining number of new listings coming to market in the 4^th quarter and by the gradually increasing number of days on market required to sell a new listing. Sellers are not rushing to list their homes and buyers are taking longer to make up their minds to purchase. This is like a knife edge balance with both buyers and sellers uncertain of the market they are facing for the new year.

Who can blame them? Some of the issues they must weigh in on include: rising interest rates, tightening buyer requirements for FHA and VA loans that are scheduled to take effect 1 Jan 2014, a new government budget scheduled to take effect in February, Obama care requirements for not only individual users but small and larger business concerns.

On the plus side we are seeing vigorous stock market growth, decreasing unemployment and a slowly evolving world economy.  Short sales and foreclosures have not gone away, but they are a much smaller part of our current real estate market.    Over 80 million Americans   -              “Echo Boomers”  -  are now reaching the traditional first time home buyer age of 29 to 35.

We have many new challenges for 2014, and also some positive changes for both buyers and sellers to look forward to.  I believe we can look forward to a better 2014 real estate market.  

 

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

 

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