Monday, January 20, 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis 4th Quarter 2013 - (October, November, December)


Camarillo has not found it’s sales pace yet. Our local market has been on a roller coaster for the last 12 months. We had a slow start with 42 single family detached homes (SFD) sold in January rising to 86 SFD homes sold in July. In July we had 110 total (SFD & condo) home sales and a remaining home inventory of 163 homes. 82 homes came to market that month which gave us only about a month and a half turnover time for a well-priced home. That was a strong seller’s market. Then interest rates went up a point and we began to hear talk of our government defaulting on it’s budget requirements.

By August we were headed back down again with 60 sales which bottomed at 39 SFD sales in November – roughly where we had been in January.

Our total home inventory including condos usually gives us some warning of sales trends, since the overall number of sales cannot exceed the number of homes for sale. Pretty basic stuff, but in my experience, inventory commonly exceeds sales numbers by a factor of  2 to 5 in a strong sellers’ market. When you get beyond a 6 month inventory of homes you begin to experience more of a buyers market. It has been more than a year since we had what I would call a buyers’ market.

This December we had only 29 new listings (SFD & condo) come to market in Camarillo. 74 homes sold during the month. We had a total home inventory of 191 homes in Nov which dropped to 164 by the end of Dec. That gives us roughly a 2 month inventory of homes (164/74). The expectation that home inventories traditionally increase in January has to be tempered this year by the knowledge that only 29 new listings came to market in Dec. It’s going to take a serious seller mindset change to reverse the downward trend in the size of our housing inventory. We are going to need a larger home inventory to have more home sales and a chance to moderate home prices.

             

Oxnard has similar trends to those of Camarillo with the number of homes coming to market dropping from 103 homes in Oct to 44 homes in Dec. Total home inventory has dropped from 255 homes in Oct to 220 homes in Dec (Not including mobile homes).  The number of homes which have gone into escrow (accepted a buyer’s offer) has dropped from 143 homes in Oct to 117 homes in Nov and further down to 51 homes in Dec! Obviously, Oxnard buyers do not like the current home buying conditions.

Ventura is experiencing a similar trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has dropped from 176 homes in Oct to 165 homes in Nov and finally 136 homes in December. Most of that decrease came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which dropped from 139 homes in Oct to 127 homes in Nov and 104 homes in Dec. This is totally opposite of the trend we discussed in the 3rd quarter market analysis, where inventories grew from 104 SFD homes in July, to 113 homes in Aug and 127 homes in Sept! What a crazy year!

There are a few signs of strength however, in the decreasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has dropped from 71 days in Oct to 57 days in Dec. Condos which used to sell in 62 days, now require an average 41 days to close. Again, these are reverse of the trends we saw in the 3rd quarter. As inventories continue to shrink, the competition for available homes is heating up, undoubtedly pushing up home prices.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual decrease in their home inventories  In Santa Paula 57 homes were available in Oct, 37 homes in Nov and 37 homes again in Dec. The number of new listings in Santa Paula has dropped from 22 homes in Oct to 8 in Nov and further down to 4 homes in Dec!

The number of SFD homes for sale has bounced between 10 and 15 homes during the 4th quarter.  Fillmore homes were actually about the same with the SFD home inventory dropping slightly from 22 homes in Oct to 16 homes in Dec.

Moorpark has one of the stronger real estate markets in the county.  Home sales are not as strong as in the 3rd quarter but are beginning to rise again. Sales have risen from 31 homes in October to 39 homes in December. The total number of  listings has dropped a bit from 54 homes in Oct to 41 homes in Dec.

What I find encouraging is the fact that the number of new listings coming to market has roughly doubled during the 4th quarter, from 20 homes in Oct to 38 homes in Dec which is the biggest number we have seen for the year since the 31 homes that came to market in July.

 

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch saw an uptrend in the number of homes for sale through Oct. The SFD market saw its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September. It spiked at 196 homes in Oct and then began a steep retracement – dropping to 178 total properties for sale in Nov and falling once again to 158 homes in Dec! Ouch! Still that beats the 92 homes we had for sale last April. 

There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. These numbers have softened a bit more with 116 homes for sale in Oct, 105 in Nov and 107 in Dec. Overall the market is stronger in Simi Valley and Wood Ranch than a year ago with higher prices for home owners to enjoy. We’ll see if 2014 can build some more predictable inventory  increases and sales momentum in this market.

 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  saw their SFD market grow from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June and peak at 200 homes in July. Then like most of the West County we saw these numbers fall to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. The 4th quarter continued the trend with a quick 187 SFD home peak falling to 167 homes in Nov and 128 homes in Dec. So we are now back to 1st quarter SFD inventory levels.

Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month during the 3rd quarter and the first 2 months of the 4th quarter. Dec saw these numbers spike down to 27 townhomes in the inventory.

It appears that the total home inventory (SFD & condos) grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and retreated back to 155 homes by December. This is still an improvement over 12 months ago.  

Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. During the 4th quarter we saw total home sales slip to 132 homes in Oct, 95 homes in Nov and hold at 99 homes for Dec.

One troubling trend in TO and Newbury Park is the rapidly declining number of new listings coming to market. We had 84 homes come to market in Oct, 67 homes in Nov and a horrible tiny 32 homes come to market in Dec! This in comparison to the 117 homes which came to market in June, 112 homes in July and 104 homes in August. Obviously, there are some real market issues at work with sellers in the Conejo Valley.

 

Agoura Hills & Oak Park saw a strengthening 3rd quarter market which like most of Ventura County has gone a bit sour in the 4th quarter. Total home inventory has dropped from 103 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Dec. New monthly listings have fallen through the floor from 43 homes in October to 30 homes in November – continuing down to 14 homes in December!

Buyers are still prowling the neighborhoods of Agoura Hills with sales remaining fairly stable at 37 homes in Oct and 32 home sales in each of Nov and Dec.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood has seen a decline in total properties for sale, falling from 131 homes in Oct to 120 homes in Nov and finally 118 homes in Dec. The total number of new listings dropped from 43 homes in Oct to 22 and 23 homes respectively in Nov and Dec.

Surprisingly the number of homes selling each month during the 4th quarter has remained fairly constant with 42 homes selling in Oct, 39 in Nov and 40 in Dec.

Summary  It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets this year has been a gradual increase in the size of our home inventory for the 1st through the 3rd quarters, with some shrinkage in the 4th quarter. A major trend has been the number of home sales increasing through August and then decreasing through the end of the year in most markets.

A disturbing trend has been the declining number of new listings coming to market in the 4th quarter and by the gradually increasing number of days on market required to sell a new listing. Sellers are not rushing to list their homes and buyers are taking longer to make up their minds to purchase. This is like a knife edge balance with both buyers and sellers uncertain of the market they are facing for the new year.

Who can blame them? Some of the issues they must weigh in on include: rising interest rates, tightening buyer requirements for FHA and VA loans that are scheduled to take effect 1 Jan 2014, a new government budget scheduled to take effect in February, Obama care requirements for not only individual users but small and larger business concerns.

On the plus side we are seeing vigorous stock market growth, decreasing unemployment and a slowly evolving world economy.  Short sales and foreclosures have not gone away, but they are a much smaller part of our current real estate market.    Over 80 million Americans   -              “Echo Boomers”  -  are now reaching the traditional first time home buyer age of 29 to 35.

We have many new challenges for 2014, and also some positive changes for both buyers and sellers to look forward to.  I believe we can look forward to a better 2014 real estate market.  

 

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

 

Call me for a free up-to-date market analysis of your homes’ value.

Please do not consider this a solicitation if your home is listed with another broker. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS.

All comments are those of the author who is solely responsible for their content.

No comments: