Camarillo
has
not found it’s sales pace yet. Our local market has been on a roller coaster
for the last 12 months. We had a slow start with 42 single family detached homes
(SFD) sold in January rising to 86 SFD homes sold in July. In July we had 110
total (SFD & condo) home sales and a remaining home inventory of 163 homes.
82 homes came to market that month which gave us only about a month and a half
turnover time for a well-priced home. That was a strong seller’s market. Then
interest rates went up a point and we began to hear talk of our government
defaulting on it’s budget requirements.
By August we were headed back down again with 60
sales which bottomed at 39 SFD sales in November – roughly where we had been in
January.
Our total home inventory including condos usually
gives us some warning of sales trends, since the overall number of sales cannot
exceed the number of homes for sale. Pretty basic stuff, but in my experience,
inventory commonly exceeds sales numbers by a factor of 2 to 5 in a strong sellers’ market. When you
get beyond a 6 month inventory of homes you begin to experience more of a
buyers market. It has been more than a year since we had what I would call a
buyers’ market.
This December we had only 29 new listings (SFD &
condo) come to market in Camarillo. 74 homes sold during the month. We had a
total home inventory of 191 homes in Nov which dropped to 164 by the end of
Dec. That gives us roughly a 2 month inventory of homes (164/74). The
expectation that home inventories traditionally increase in January has to be
tempered this year by the knowledge that only 29 new listings came to market in
Dec. It’s going to take a serious seller mindset change to reverse the downward
trend in the size of our housing inventory. We are going to need a larger home
inventory to have more home sales and a chance to moderate home prices.
Oxnard
has similar trends to those of Camarillo with the number of homes coming to
market dropping from 103 homes in Oct to 44 homes in Dec. Total home inventory
has dropped from 255 homes in Oct to 220 homes in Dec (Not including mobile
homes). The number of homes which have
gone into escrow (accepted a buyer’s offer) has dropped from 143 homes in Oct
to 117 homes in Nov and further down to 51 homes in Dec! Obviously, Oxnard
buyers do not like the current home buying conditions.
Ventura
is
experiencing a similar trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of
SFD and Condos has dropped from 176 homes in Oct to 165 homes in Nov and
finally 136 homes in December. Most of that decrease came from the Single
Family Detached (SFD) inventory which dropped from 139 homes in Oct to 127
homes in Nov and 104 homes in Dec. This is totally opposite of the trend we
discussed in the 3rd quarter market analysis, where inventories grew
from 104 SFD homes in July, to 113 homes in Aug and 127 homes in Sept! What a
crazy year!
There are a few signs of strength however, in the decreasing
length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has dropped
from 71 days in Oct to 57 days in Dec. Condos which used to sell in 62 days,
now require an average 41 days to close. Again, these are reverse of the trends
we saw in the 3rd quarter. As inventories continue to shrink, the
competition for available homes is heating up, undoubtedly pushing up home
prices.
Santa
Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual decrease in
their home inventories In Santa Paula 57
homes were available in Oct, 37 homes in Nov and 37 homes again in Dec. The
number of new listings in Santa Paula has dropped from 22 homes in Oct to 8 in
Nov and further down to 4 homes in Dec!
The number of SFD homes for sale has bounced between
10 and 15 homes during the 4th quarter. Fillmore homes were actually about the same
with the SFD home inventory dropping slightly from 22 homes in Oct to 16 homes
in Dec.
Moorpark
has
one of the stronger real estate markets in the county. Home sales are not as strong as in the 3rd
quarter but are beginning to rise again. Sales have risen from 31 homes in
October to 39 homes in December. The total number of listings has dropped a bit from 54 homes in
Oct to 41 homes in Dec.
What I find encouraging is the fact that the number
of new listings coming to market has roughly doubled during the 4th
quarter, from 20 homes in Oct to 38 homes in Dec which is the biggest number we
have seen for the year since the 31 homes that came to market in July.
Simi
Valley & Wood Ranch saw an uptrend in the number of
homes for sale through Oct. The SFD market saw its’ inventory climb from 117
homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138
homes in September. It spiked at 196 homes in Oct and then began a steep
retracement – dropping to 178 total properties for sale in Nov and falling once
again to 158 homes in Dec! Ouch! Still that beats the 92 homes we had for sale
last April.
There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward
spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. These
numbers have softened a bit more with 116 homes for sale in Oct, 105 in Nov and
107 in Dec. Overall the market is stronger in Simi Valley and Wood Ranch than a
year ago with higher prices for home owners to enjoy. We’ll see if 2014 can
build some more predictable inventory
increases and sales momentum in this market.
Thousand
Oaks and Newbury Park saw
their SFD market grow from 118 homes
in April to 178 homes in June and peak at 200 homes in July. Then like most of
the West County we saw these numbers fall to 186 homes in August and on down to
163 homes in September. The 4th quarter continued the trend with a
quick 187 SFD home peak falling to 167 homes in Nov and 128 homes in Dec. So we
are now back to 1st quarter SFD inventory levels.
Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly
stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month during the 3rd quarter
and the first 2 months of the 4th quarter. Dec saw these numbers
spike down to 27 townhomes in the inventory.
It appears that the total home inventory (SFD &
condos) grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes
and retreated back to 155 homes by December. This is still an improvement over
12 months ago.
Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140
homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce
back up to 136 homes in September. During the 4th quarter we saw
total home sales slip to 132 homes in Oct, 95 homes in Nov and hold at 99 homes
for Dec.
One troubling trend in TO and Newbury Park is the
rapidly declining number of new listings coming to market. We had 84 homes come
to market in Oct, 67 homes in Nov and a horrible tiny 32 homes come to market
in Dec! This in comparison to the 117 homes which came to market in June, 112
homes in July and 104 homes in August. Obviously, there are some real market
issues at work with sellers in the Conejo Valley.
Agoura
Hills & Oak
Park saw a strengthening 3rd quarter market which like most of
Ventura County has gone a bit sour in the 4th quarter. Total home
inventory has dropped from 103 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Dec. New monthly
listings have fallen through the floor from 43 homes in October to 30 homes in
November – continuing down to 14 homes in December!
Buyers are still prowling the neighborhoods of
Agoura Hills with sales remaining fairly stable at 37 homes in Oct and 32 home
sales in each of Nov and Dec.
Westlake
Village & Lake Sherwood has seen a decline in
total properties for sale, falling from 131 homes in Oct to 120 homes in Nov
and finally 118 homes in Dec. The total number of new listings dropped from 43
homes in Oct to 22 and 23 homes respectively in Nov and Dec.
Surprisingly the number of homes selling each month
during the 4th quarter has remained fairly constant with 42 homes
selling in Oct, 39 in Nov and 40 in Dec.
Summary It appears that the
major trend in our Ventura County markets this year has been a gradual increase
in the size of our home inventory for the 1st through the 3rd
quarters, with some shrinkage in the 4th quarter. A major trend has
been the number of home sales increasing through August and then decreasing
through the end of the year in most markets.
A disturbing trend has been the declining number of
new listings coming to market in the 4th quarter and by the
gradually increasing number of days on market required to sell a new listing.
Sellers are not rushing to list their homes and buyers are taking longer to
make up their minds to purchase. This is like a knife edge balance with both
buyers and sellers uncertain of the market they are facing for the new year.
Who can blame them? Some of the issues they must
weigh in on include: rising interest rates, tightening buyer requirements for
FHA and VA loans that are scheduled to take effect 1 Jan 2014, a new government
budget scheduled to take effect in February, Obama care requirements for not
only individual users but small and larger business concerns.
On the plus side we are seeing vigorous stock market
growth, decreasing unemployment and a slowly evolving world economy. Short sales and foreclosures have not gone
away, but they are a much smaller part of our current real estate market. Over 80 million Americans - “Echo Boomers” - are
now reaching the traditional first time home buyer age of 29 to 35.
We have many new challenges for 2014, and also some
positive changes for both buyers and sellers to look forward to. I believe we can look forward to a better 2014
real estate market.
Mark
Thorngren
Call me for a free up-to-date market analysis of your
homes’ value.
Please
do not consider this a solicitation if your home is listed with another broker.
Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the
MLS.
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comments are those of the author who is solely responsible for their content.
