Green Knolls Tract in TO

I did a Comparative Market Analysis for a friend (and client) of mine in the area just Southwest across the 101 from the Oaks Mall. This is about a quarter mile square area and featrures larger sized “move-up” homes built in the 1980’s. The CMA was done on the 12th of October and included 6 active listings and 9 sold listing covering the previous 12 months of activity.

The Active listings were priced between $594,900 and $799,950. The average days on the market (DOM) is 104 days with prices reduced from an average $756K to and average $716K over that time frame. Keep in mind that these prices reflect back just a bit over 6 months.

The Sold listings went for between $550K and $875K. The average days on the market was 58 days and the average sale price was roughly $728K. The sold listings covered 12 months or an additional 6 months before the Active listings in this CMA. These are averaged numbers.

Sold listings give us the best info and here are four homes of particular interest since they are somewhat close in size and square footage.
In November ‘06 a 5/3 2,600 sq ft home sold in 35 days after reducing from 819K to 816K.
In March a 4/3 2400 sq ft home sold in 151 days after reducing from 764K to 745K.
In June a 4/2.5 3000 sq ft home sold in 116 days after reducing from 965K to 828K.
In July a 4/2.5 2500 sq ft home sold in 77 days after reducing from 815K to 801K.

Compare these homes with 3 homes similar to them in the Active category.
In April a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for a 189 DOM and reduced so far from 829.9K to 769.9K
In Sept a 4/3 2,800 sq ft home listed for 36 DOM and has not been reduced so far from 799K
In Sept a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for 25 DOM and has not been reduced from 799.9K

Summary: These 3 Active homes are of fairly equal size and are being listed between 770K and 800K.
Referencing the trends from Sold listings, my personal guess is that they will sell between 760 and 780K. If that is true, those homes will represent about a 40K to 50K price drop from homes selling in the same area six months ago. That is about 8K per month drop in prices overall. Not too far out of line with what we have been seeing in other neighborhoods in East Ventura County. Contrast that with some Oxnard neighborhoods where we have seen homes listed a year ago in the 770’s and 780’s now listed for 600K and less!

You are welcome to study other market information and blogs on my website at http://www.markthorngren.com

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Mark Thorngren