Home Inventories Shrink in Ventura County

Decreasing home inventory is very good for home sellers. It’s just supply and demand – when there is less supply there is usually greater demand, ie: Gradually increasing home prices. Although this may be just a short term decrease in inventory, I’m cautiously optimistic. Here’s why…

Every month I do a little report for myself to see where our market is heading. Generally I see mild trends that may not change significantly for 6 or 8 months at a time. This month was different.

In Camarillo, the total number of Single Family Detached homes for sale dropped from 155 to 134 - Townhomes dropped from 43 to 34. Last July we had over 200 SFD homes on the market, so to drop to 134 homes in just 8 months is a strong trend.

In Oxnard, the total number of SFD homes for sale dropped from 253 in January to 147 at the end of February! Townhomes dropped from 168 Units to 77 Units! The number of properties that went into contract was still high but that is because there is usually an average 30 – 90 day lag between when homes are listed and when they go under contract (accept an offer).

Most of the other statistics I check showed similar drops as you can see.
It appears that we are beginning to see a possible shift in our marketplace from a strong buyers market to the possibility of a housing inventory shortage.

The next several months could be very significant in terms of changing from a buyers market to the beginning of a sellers market. Certainly these numbers (if they continue to fall or hold at these low values) would tend to indicate that our market is bottoming.

A continuing trend like this would seem to point the way in Ventura County towards gradually improving home values.

Mark Thorngren


Mark Thorngren
Realtor DRE# 01413932
Movewest Realty Inc.
Direct (805) 504-0228
Mark@MarkThorngren.com
www.MarkThorngren.com

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Fair Warning

This email is for folks who are considering the purchase of a new home sometime this year. I have included 2 attachments which describe in detail our local market changes for Camarillo and Oxnard. Basically, our existing home inventory is shrinking rapidly. Fewer homes to pick from means increasing home prices.

Silverio Garcia is a local Mortgage Broker who sent me today - the email you see below. This combination of inventory changes and increasing mortgage costs have not taken effect yet, but they may indicate some changes for buyers, that will soon make home ownership more expensive. I’m thinking sometime yet this year we may begin to notice some gradual price changes.

Here is Silverio’s email:
I'm sure by now you have heard rumors that FHA is increasing their premiums. While a Mortgagee Letter has not yet been issued we felt that we should introduce the information we have at this point. When the Mortgagee Letter is posted we will issue a formal notification of change.

With the increases hopefully borrowers who have just been thinking about buying may be ready to spring into action to avoid the increases. Please inform all of your clients of these changes and let’s get them into escrow before these changes are effective. Please call me 805-479-9283 if you have any further questions or if you need any of you clients to be pre-approved TODAY!!!!!!!!!


Increased annual premium - 10 basis points across for the board to 1.25% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st

Additional annual premium increase for loans over $625,500 - 25 basis points to 1.50% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation delayed until June 1,2012: Case numbers assigned on or after June 1st

Increased upfront premium - 75 basis points: Total upfront premium - 1.75% (Today it’s 1.0)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st
Applies to all loans regardless of LTV or amortization term

Silverio Garcia