Victoria Estates In Oxnard, CA
Think of a premium community with all the amenities including a guarded gate, swimming pool, spa, recreation building and parks - built between late 2002 and 2004. Put it next to an award winning golf course that also just happens to be adjacent to where the Dallas Cowboys practice in late summer. Fill the sky with fresh air from the Pacific Ocean about a mile away and cool breezes which defeat the need for air conditioning. Put two major yachting harbors with restaurants and shopping - equidistant to the North and South about 4 miles. Now take these gorgeous homes which recently were listed from the high $800K’s to the $1.3M range and subtract $100K to $200K from their sales price – nothing is currently listed above $812,900 and one home is currently being listed for $550,000!
That’s Victoria Estates.
Today is October 13, 2008 and I have just finished looking at everything which has come to the market in Victoria Estates since October 1, 2007. There were 65 properties listed in the local MLS (Multiple Listing Service). By my count, there were an almost equal number of Foreclosures and Short Sales (33) as there were conventional home sales (32).
These are truly tragic numbers for home owners and sellers. They accurately reflect the time period during which home mortgages were given to anyone with a pulse, often with variable rate clauses which nobody ever expected would activate. Get behind on your mortgage? Just refinance in a year and drop your rate. Worst case, just put it on the market and it will sell in a day.
Then things changed. The new Fed chairman raised interest rates 9 times in one six month period. Home prices began to soften as fewer folks could afford the new mortgage rates and the high home prices. Homes took longer to sell because home owners knew their homes were worth and insane amount of money and would not compromise. Gradually, home owners began to see their interest rates adjust upwards on their new homes and they were suddenly upside down on their mortgages. They owed more than they could easily sell their homes for. Still, sellers refused to “give away their homes.”
The rest is history. Home owners couldn’t refinance to a lower mortgage rate on a home that was worth less than when they purchased it after only a year or two. Banks couldn’t make as many stated income loans and found they needed to tighten up their lending limits. This made it harder for folks to buy homes from the people desperately trying to sell. Banks began to pull out of escrows that had been approved just days earlier. We lost 1/3 of our mortgage lenders in the fall of 2007.
Victoria Estates is the poster child of the Real Estate Meltdown.
Victoria Estates is a buyers dream. There are 5 tracts within the Victoria Estates Development.
River Glen 1 This tract has had 14 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120/Month to $144/Month.
River Glen 2 This tract has had 4 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $140 to $144/Month.
Glen Eagles This tract has had 13 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 to $144/Month.
Legacy This tract has had 24 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 earlier this year to as high as $147 this year.
Pacifica This tract has had 10 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 late last year to $150/Month late this year.
I have spent considerable time in the last several months escorting astute investors, bargain hunting new home buyers and folks who just want to live somewhere special into Victoria Estates. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t think these beautiful homes will continue to fall in price forever. In a shorter time than most “experts” predict, I think we’ll see home values in this development firm and turn.
There are 15 homes currently listed between $550,000 and $812,900. Many are short sales which I do not personally recommend, but they can be done. Ask me why I don't like short sales and I can recount a number of horror stories. Still there are some reasonable opportunities. There 8 homes currently in escrow ranging in price from $599,000 for 2,900 sq ft, to $830,000 for a home just under 4,500 sq ft.
If you are not from California these prices will shock you. If you are from California and are aware of what near ocean properties sell for, these prices will shock you as well.
17 homes have sold in the last 12 months for prices ranging from $570,000 this last April, to a home which sold for $875,000 a month earlier in March! Let me illustrate how volatile our market is with an example of our market right now. The last 3 homes which sold in Victoria Estates were all sold in July. They were all 4 bedroom and 3 bath homes built in 2003 and they sold within 3 days of each other.
The first was a 2,882 sq ft home sold July 22 for $704,000.
The next was a smaller 2,464 sq ft home sold July 25 for $605,000. That is $100,000 less and only about 400 sq ft smaller.
The last home was a larger 3,137 sq ft home sold July 25 for $640,000, but with a smaller yard. Still, that is a $64,000 lower price for a larger home!
The 2 lower priced homes were on 7500 sq ft lots while the higher priced home was on a 12,000 sq ft lot.
There were 10 properties which were cancelled during escrow and they ranged in price from $629,000 for a 3,300 sq ft home, to a home originally offered for $1,300,000 for 4,000 sq ft. It was reduced in price after 188 days on the market to $800,000 before it was cancelled. That might have proved to be an unfortunate decision as home prices over the last year have dropped to a median $704,000 in Victoria Estates.
There were also 13 homes which became expired listings in the last year. Most homes are listed for a six month period, but can be listed for any time frame the seller desires and the listing agent will agree to. These homes were listed for $679,000 for a 2,700 sq ft home on up to 1,099,000 for a 3,100 sq ft home. Most likely, these folks can afford to wait out the market.
It is interesting to note that 25 of the properties this year, of the 65 that were listed, did not sell but were cancelled, expired or released from showing.
Again, 11 homes were foreclosures and 22 were/are short sales. Those numbers just totally destroy any normal market price supports.
It’s definitely hunting season for buyers at Victoria Estates.
Just as an aside, I have also checked the rental market from what is on the MLS. These are probably not all the rentals for the year - a lot of that happens outside of the MLS. There were 9 homes listed for rent, ranging from $2,800/Month for a 2,700 sq ft home, to $3,500/Month for a 3,300 sq ft home. Both of those homes are currently available along with a 3,600 sq ft home for $3,000/Month.
Some investors are purchasing these homes and renting them back to their former owners. Everyone wins a bit in that situation. Families can keep their kids in school and maybe buy some time to decide their next move. Investors can rent the home at a bargain rate to someone who will very likely take good care of their investment.
I hope you have found this information useful. All the figures and information used for this report were drawn from my own personal experience working in Victoria Estates and from the information available to all realtors in the Ventura County Regional Data Share. I would be happy to share CMA’s for any of the 5 tracts with interested folks and can even send you mapped reports of these tracts as well. Please know that I do value your comments and suggestions.
Please feel free to contact me for additional information on these homes at:
mark@markthorngren.com or call me direct at: (805) 504-0228
You are welcome to visit my website at http://www.markthorngren.com/ where you can also keep up with current mortgage and real estate news in a video format from RealtyTimes.com. It’s fun, informative and it updates nearly every day. Bookmark it and use it as often as you like.
It is important that you know, that I do have time for you, your family, friends and people you like who could use my help right now. Your introductions are my greatest compliment.
Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren
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