Monday, July 1, 2013
Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis - 2nd Quarter 2013 April - May - June
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
As Prices Rise - Buyers Must Be More Wise
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Turning the Corner in Ventura County
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Ventura County Market Trends for 2013
Our Ventura County Market is marching in a very new direction for 2013. Last year we saw home prices beginning to edge up and home inventories dry up. Concerns about the world- wide economy, our national economy, the presidential election, the “Fiscal Cliff” and even the end of the world Mayan Calendar have had everyone second guessing our local real estate market.
Apparently our world did not end and people are still buying and selling real estate. Who knew Mayans could be such practical jokers?
Prices are still low but they are moving upwards at what I predict will be an accelerating pace. There has been data analysis of our market by San Diego based “DataQuick” which stated the median county home prices rose by about 7.5% last year and roughly 16.7% in Los Angeles. The median home sale price in Ventura County rose from $335,000 to $360,000. (See Ventura County Star – 11/14/2012)
One of the interesting sidelights of this new market is that more expensive homes appear to be selling again as well. In Ventura County, 55 homes sold for more than $800,000 in the month of October – up 52.6 % from a year ago!
In January of 2012, we had 421 homes for sale in Oxnard and Port Hueneme. By December of 2012 we had 122 homes on the market! In Camarillo, we went from 198 homes to 71 homes on the market for the same time frame. We simply do not have enough homes for sale to meet local demand anymore. With demand high and supply low there can be only one outcome. Higher prices.
Frankly, the market in many ways resembles the market we had in 2002 – 2007. Any single family detached home in reasonable condition for under $400,000 has frequently been the target of multiple offers, bidding wars and sale prices exceeding listing prices. Once again, cash is king, since appraisals frequently come in low for these homes. That is a typical indicator of a market with significant price increases.
Buyers must make up the difference between sale price and appraisal with cash. Often, first time home buyers must stretch to reach the list price, so trying to find an additional $5,000 or $10,000 to close the deal is difficult. Investors typically are not affected since they usually pay cash regardless of any appraisal. They may not even order an appraisal. Investor groups are very popular for this reason. They simply roll over and crush any loan financed competition.
So what’s next? I predict home prices will continue upwards and trigger the renewed building of new home developments. Certainly, more folks will decide to list their homes as prices begin achieving the levels where they are no longer upside down on their loans. Some of these folks will finally be able to refinance out of their arm loans and into today’s market interest rates. A great deal of financial pain will be relieved for these home owners, allowing them to use their earnings for a broader range of consumer products and services.
As more people list their homes, the upward pressure on home prices may moderate from present levels as supply begins to catch up with demand. I think prices will continue upwards in the double digits from this year for at least the next several years before we see prices slow again. There is just too much pent up demand.
Short sales and foreclosures will be with us for at least a few more years but the number of these sales is a much smaller portion of total sales today than just 2 years ago when over 60% of all our sales were distressed sales. I believe they make up less than half of that number today, but I don’t have any hard data on them.
Short sales have one year left as an advantaged viable option for home sellers. Congress did renew the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act for one more year. We are hoping that the State of California will do the same. (Additional conditions apply) This allows a homeowner to short sale their home, pay no commission for the sale of their home, ( the mortgage holding bank pays ) and no taxes on their capital gains mortgage debt. Personally, with rising home prices, I don’t expect to see this relief extended past this year.
Finally, interest rates may begin to see more upward movement before the end of 2013. As our economy continues to improve and more homes are built, I believe we will begin to see the beginnings of inflationary pressures on our local, and nationwide economies. That may signal the start of a more definitive increase in interest rates. I’m not an economist, but we have had several years of historically low interest rates and our market has responded. The Fed will soon have no reason to artificially hold rates down.
Competition for nicer homes will remain intense this year so buyers must have patience, be pre-approved and have the ability to make home buying decisions quickly. Putting off a home purchase for an extended time will probably be a costly decision.
For home sellers, the market is headed your way. Most folks should see prices high enough to list again in a much shorter period of time than they may have thought possible. Just remember if you delay in selling your home, the purchase of an equivalent home may cost more as well. Conversely, listing homes at wildly inflated prices may still cause them to sit while replacement homes increase in price. Neighborhood sold trends still are the best indicators of sales success when pricing your home.
We are in a time of transition now. I believe prices and interest rates will continue upwards this year and probably more quickly than most people expect. Home inventory will remain tight for most of this year until prices allow homeowners to refinance or list at a profit again. Home prices fell a long way over the last 5 or 6 years so this may take some time.
Mark Thorngren
Movewest Realty, Inc.
For more information you are welcome to visit http://realtytimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren , or the blog tab of my website at www.markthorngren.com
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
1503 Windshore Way
|
2185 Ventura Blvd
Camarillo,
CA93010
805-504-0223
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Monday, March 5, 2012
Home Inventories Shrink in Ventura County
Every month I do a little report for myself to see where our market is heading. Generally I see mild trends that may not change significantly for 6 or 8 months at a time. This month was different.
In Camarillo, the total number of Single Family Detached homes for sale dropped from 155 to 134 - Townhomes dropped from 43 to 34. Last July we had over 200 SFD homes on the market, so to drop to 134 homes in just 8 months is a strong trend.
In Oxnard, the total number of SFD homes for sale dropped from 253 in January to 147 at the end of February! Townhomes dropped from 168 Units to 77 Units! The number of properties that went into contract was still high but that is because there is usually an average 30 – 90 day lag between when homes are listed and when they go under contract (accept an offer).
Most of the other statistics I check showed similar drops as you can see.
It appears that we are beginning to see a possible shift in our marketplace from a strong buyers market to the possibility of a housing inventory shortage.
The next several months could be very significant in terms of changing from a buyers market to the beginning of a sellers market. Certainly these numbers (if they continue to fall or hold at these low values) would tend to indicate that our market is bottoming.
A continuing trend like this would seem to point the way in Ventura County towards gradually improving home values.
Mark Thorngren
Mark Thorngren
Realtor DRE# 01413932
Movewest Realty Inc.
Direct (805) 504-0228
Mark@MarkThorngren.com
www.MarkThorngren.com
Free Realty Times Video News Letter
Fair Warning
This email is for folks who are considering the purchase of a new home sometime this year. I have included 2 attachments which describe in detail our local market changes for Camarillo and Oxnard. Basically, our existing home inventory is shrinking rapidly. Fewer homes to pick from means increasing home prices.
Silverio Garcia is a local Mortgage Broker who sent me today - the email you see below. This combination of inventory changes and increasing mortgage costs have not taken effect yet, but they may indicate some changes for buyers, that will soon make home ownership more expensive. I’m thinking sometime yet this year we may begin to notice some gradual price changes.
Here is Silverio’s email:
I'm sure by now you have heard rumors that FHA is increasing their premiums. While a Mortgagee Letter has not yet been issued we felt that we should introduce the information we have at this point. When the Mortgagee Letter is posted we will issue a formal notification of change.
With the increases hopefully borrowers who have just been thinking about buying may be ready to spring into action to avoid the increases. Please inform all of your clients of these changes and let’s get them into escrow before these changes are effective. Please call me 805-479-9283 if you have any further questions or if you need any of you clients to be pre-approved TODAY!!!!!!!!!
Increased annual premium - 10 basis points across for the board to 1.25% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st
Additional annual premium increase for loans over $625,500 - 25 basis points to 1.50% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation delayed until June 1,2012: Case numbers assigned on or after June 1st
Increased upfront premium - 75 basis points: Total upfront premium - 1.75% (Today it’s 1.0)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st
Applies to all loans regardless of LTV or amortization term
Silverio Garcia
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Update on Moorpark Highlands - The Pinnacle
The Pinnacle is a small hillside community of beautiful upscale homes tucked away behind two separate, private gated entries. Located off Ridgecrest Drive just North of Moorpark is this latest Moorpark Highlands development.
The original KB development was a bit of a non-starter. It began as a Pardee Homes community with four models of homes approved though the City of Moorpark. Pardee sold the development and the city approved home designs to KB Homes. KB built three model homes which simply sat unsold. They were nice homes, but the market simply wasn’t there.
Toll Brothers purchased the property and the city approved plans for four of the Pardee Home Models. Working with the City of Moorpark, Toll Brothers had three additional floor plans approved and the development re-plotted to accommodate these models. Toll Brothers rebuilt one of the model homes to the luxury standards they are known for, and simply sold off the other two older KB model homes. A new Toll Brothers “San Miguel” model home was constructed and opened to the public last September.
Sales were slow to begin until buyers began to realize the quality and value inherent in these new homes. That sounds like a sales pitch, but my personal opinion is that Toll Brothers had some real challenges to overcome with public perception until the reality of what was being built here became apparent. I’m told sales are steady now. There simply is nothing new in Ventura County being built in this price range to this quality standard.
The price list for these seven models show prices ranging from roughly $855,000 for a Santa Susana model up to about $1,040,000 for a Chateau version of the Isla Vista Model. These are Feb 1, 2012 prices and will likely rise as sales continue to improve.
Homes are built from 7 available floor plans which include both single and 2- story homes. Currently there are 17 home lots released for sale out of a total of 132 lots in The Pinnacle. Three additional homes are in escrow and 18 homes have already sold. By my count, that means that presently there are 111 lots left to sell. Homes take 7 to 9 months to build and according to their onsite sale manager – Kathleen Martin – they expect to sell about 40% of them as single story models.
I like these homes. They come with many options, including extra rooms, balconies, wet bar or fireplaces. You can choose from 5 types of granite for your kitchen counters, different marbles for the bathrooms or standard tile. Kitchen cabinets are self-closing so you don’t need to fear bruising your side on sharp edges while you bustle around the kitchen with your hands full. Kitchen Aid appliances are standard for the kitchens.
Kohler tub and plumbing fixtures come standard in the bathrooms. Master bathrooms are lavish with jetted tubs and separate shower enclosures. They include double basin Pullman cabinets and often come with a little makeup counter. Count on a large walk-in closet for Mom, but Dad will have to share or he’s on his own. (Some plans have his/hers walk-in closets).
These homes offer $20,000 multi-slide patio doors which slide right into wall recesses, 2 or 3 zone air conditioning and options for pre-installed recessed solar panels that will offer considerable energy savings over the years. These solar panels are well executed and blend in with the contours of the homes instead of looking like a high school science project gone bad. Solar panels are an option who’s time has come. They just make good sense in Ventura County.
Solar panels come with a 20 year lease from Sun Run - a major solar provider - for $45/month. Since most home sizes average 4,000 to 5,000 square feet I’ll leave it to the reader to imagine how much this could save in heating and air-conditioning costs. Also, solar power is an option that allows the use of tankless water heaters, thereby eliminating the costs of continuously heating 75 gallons of water in the standard water heater installed here.
Lot sizes run from about 31,000 sq ft to as much as 47,000 sq ft for lots fronting the arroyo on the West side of the development. I’d say more typical lot sizes range from 14,000 to 20,000 ft for more central properties. Landscaping, pools with Jacuzzi and lavish BBQ areas highlight the spectacular views that many of these homes enjoy.
Imagine sipping something cold and delicious while sitting comfortably in your favorite patio chair on a stonework patio shaded by a wooden beamed framework. Your spouse grills nearby on a permanent BBQ with maybe a mini-bar and gas warmers. Your kids and your neighbors’ kids splash around in the pool or play down the street at the Moorpark Highlands 7 acre park with tennis and basketball courts.
After dinner when the kids are in bed, you and your spouse can share some time in the Jacuzzi and admire the marvelous hillside views.
It’s not my intention to try to list all the wonderful features of these homes – go online to http://www.thepinnacleatmoorparkhighlands.com/ call Kathleen Martin or Diane Valenza at (805) 532-2007 or call me for more in depth information or to schedule a private viewing.
My bottom line impression is simply that these homes start with a high standard of quality and build additional enhancements to your taste.
Now let’s talk about the fine print.
Each home comes with two HOA fees. There is a $95 Moorpark Highlands Master Association Fee and a $145 Pinnacle Association Fee – total $240/month. There is also a very substantial Mello Roos for each property from the City of Moorpark. The local Mello Roos is a 40 year posted bond or city tax. Over the course of the 40 years this adds up to between $50,000 and $70,000 (depending on home size) paid to the City of Moorpark by each home owner.
When you buy a home in the Pinnacle Community, Toll Brothers will pay off your Mello Roos! To my knowledge, no other Moorpark Highlands development has offered its’ buyers this bargain. Of course this begs the question – don’t they just tack that cost on to the home price? The sales office has stated to me that the cost of the Mello Roos is not passed along to buyers. Toll Brothers is serious about selling these homes at a value price.
Some of the other nice things about Toll Brothers homes include what they call a “First Home Buyer Orientation” which is a 300 item checklist that each homebuyer reviews 5 to 7 days before closing on their new home. A “Second Homebuyer Orientation” is completed just before closing to ensure completion of any discrepancies found during the first orientation. This is a very nice way to reinforce buyer confidence in the quality of their new home. A ten-year limited warranty comes with your new home.
These are not exotic mansions and you won’t see many captains of industry helicoptering to and from these homes. Short of that, these are fine homes in a pleasant semi-rural area. Just be aware that there are not many homes in this development. It is a rather special place to raise a family or to retire in comfort.
Just the way I see it,
Mark Thorngren
(805) 504-0228
mark@movewest.com
http://www.markthorngren.com/
