Monday, July 1, 2013

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis - 2nd Quarter 2013 April - May - June


Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis – 2nd Quarter 2013

April - May - June

This month I’ve added Santa Paula, Fillmore, Bardsdale & Piru to this monthly market snapshot. Now we truly have a comprehensive look at Ventura County’s Real Estate Market.  Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are also included as part of the Conejo Valley even though they are actually in Los Angeles County.

So what’s going on? Our market is healing. Home inventory is still low but for the last 3 months it has been gradually growing. Prices continue to skyrocket in the county at rates we haven’t seen since 2006. Interest rates are continuing a 6 week trend of upward motion and topped 4% at the end of June for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

Distressed sales which include short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcy sales are now the exception rather than the rule. They are still a significant part of the local market but they continue to shrink in the percentage of our market that they represent.  That’s a good thing.

Here is a look at some of the specific market trends for Ventura County:

 

Camarillo

Total inventory since April has risen from a low of 80 single family detached (SFD) homes to 125 homes at the end of June. That’s a very encouraging trend. The number of properties which came to market in the month of April was 39, May - 43 and now in June - 58. As prices increase, more folks will be able to refinance or sell at a profit, so as long as prices continue to rise, I would predict inventory to continue rising as well.

Condos went from 9 homes to 17 and back to 11 homes for sale, with 10 to 15 homes selling each month, so no major trend changes here.

Our local newspaper – “The Acorn” reported this week that 2 new apartment complexes and 1 large Townhome project are planned for the Springville Exit area (West edge of town) as part of a city's "Springville Specific Plan" . "Rancho Associates of Beverly Hills, plans to construct 130 three and four bedroom condos. About 26 condos are designated as affordable housing for seniors. The Springville Specific Plan will develop 95 acres of former farmland into an additional 384 unit apartment complex behind the Hampton Inn and Suites. A second apartment complex will contain 163 units which back up to the 101. Construction for all three projects is to begin during the summer of 2014. 

 
 

Oxnard

Oxnard is the largest town in Ventura County so it has an advantage to us in magnifying any strong trends. It shows us more clearly what is happening than some of the smaller towns. Total inventory has risen from April’s 104 SFD homes to 149 homes by the end of June. The month of April saw 40 homes come to market in Oxnard, followed by 49 in May and 67 in June. That is a nice trend for Buyers and Sellers. Average time on the market before selling has been hovering around 70 to 75 days. 

The condo market has remained flat at between 25 and 35 homes coming to market each month and maybe 25 to 35 actually selling. Inventory has hovered between 50 and 60 homes each month.

New homes continue to be built at “Riverpark” and “The Hideaway” but no word on the 2nd phase of “Port 121” in the Seabridge Community.
 

Ventura (San Buenaventura)

The market in Ventura is more typical of the West County. We are seeing Oxnard trends but smaller numbers. Total SFD home inventory rose from 79 homes in April to 97 at the end of June.  April saw 32 homes come to market, May saw 34 and April rose to 51 homes! Slowly but surely this market is improving. The number of SFD homes which have come to market since January and not sold usually increases from month to month. This is usually a condition of sale price or home condition. In Ventura this number has actually shrunk from 74 homes in April to 59 homes in June. That’s a strong market.

Condo inventory has risen from 11 homes to 18 at the end of June. 5 or 10 condos and townhomes come to market each month and sell about as fast as they come to market.
 

Moorpark

Home inventory in Moorpark has not seen any significant growth over the last quarter. Total inventory has remained between 37 and 41 SFD homes and less than 8 condos for the same time frame. An average of 25 homes of both types come to market each month.  That doesn’t mean it is a weak market. Actually, most of the home inventory has turned over during that  3 month period.  This is a small but healthy market. 

The “Highland Development” continues to grow with a recent announcement of a new tract under construction. More to come on that.
 

Simi Valley

Ventura and Simi Valley are very similar in market numbers with Simi Valley just edging out Ventura with market inventory growth from an identical 79 SFD homes in April,  to a nice growth spurt of  97 homes in May and finally 114 homes vs 97 in Ventura for June. The number of SFD homes coming to market each month has remained steady at roughly 50 to 60 homes. As in Moorpark, these homes are selling as fast as they come to market with an average 90 homes selling each month.

Just shy of 20 condos come to market each month and usually sell as fast as they list.

A new home development has been approved according to one of my neighborhood experts for the South edge of town. I need to find out more about this, but I’m told it will be pretty large and require changes to many of the area streets.
 

Thousand Oaks & Newbury Park

Some of the strongest inventory growth in the county has been happening in the Conejo Valley – specifically TO and Newbury Park. April saw 118 Single Family Detached homes on the market. This grew to 135 homes in May and 178 homes by the end of June! The number of homes actually selling has remained fairly constant 98 and 103 homes per month. However, the number of homes which came to market during the month grew from 67 homes in April, to a slightly higher 72 homes in April and then rocketed up to 107 homes by the end of June.

Obviously, home owners are seeing prices that are now approaching a point where they have the freedom to either refinance their homes or sell without taking a loss. I predict more growth in the 3rd quarter for these cities. The average time on the market for these homes is just over 2 months. Considering that average home prices are some of the highest in the county – this should have a very positive effect on their local economy.
 

Westlake Village & Agoura Hills

Smaller than TO and Newbury Park in market size, but mighty nonetheless, Westlake Village and Agoura Hills have seen steady growth in their numbers. April saw an inventory of 92 homes which grew to 103 homes in May and a bit more to 106 homes in June. We saw the number of homes coming to market each month – grow from 26 homes in April to 37 homes in June. We have seen between 35 and 40 homes sell each month in these communities – basically homes are selling as fast as they come to market. The average sale time has dropped from 151 days to 72 days. That’s a pretty hot market for these two smaller communities.

This is one market where the market for condos and townhomes is growing. The condo inventory grew from 12 homes in April to 16 in May and on up to 30 by the end of June. More condos are coming to market each month now as well – going from 6 to 30 in the same quarter. Average sale time for a condo here is between 2 and 2 ½ months.
 

Santa Paula and Fillmore

These two towns will be covered in greater detail next month when I have enough data to see trends. The two months information I have currently collected show our smallest markets but growing just the same, especially in Santa Paula where inventory has grown from 17 homes to 27 in 1 month. Fillmore has grown from 10 SFD homes to 17 in the same time frame.

The condo markets for these 2 towns is very small with less than half a dozen properties for sale in either town. Those that do come to market sell very quickly.

Both of these communities have announced new home developments for the very near future or are actively selling in new home communities like the “Bridges” in Fillmore. 

Summary

Wow! Somebody just threw another light switch in Ventura County. 
Inventory is slowly increasing across the county as prices reach levels high enough to allow sellers to make a profit.  Competition continues to be intense between home buyers and investors. Multiple offers and above list price offers are driving the market upwards. It's not unusual to receive 10 or 20 offers for one nicely priced home in a good area.  
More new construction is happening throughout the county and I would expect that we will sadly wave good bye to many more acres of prime farmland in the next few years. We lose about a thousand acres a year.  Still as prices rise, current owners may be able to find some relief with their ability to refinance into newer, lower interest rate loans if they hurry.
The real unknown is what levels interest rates may reach in the coming months. The recent rate hikes have been significant even with encouraging announcements from the Fed, the US Banking System seems intent on making more profit from higher rate mortgages this year.
Bottom line - Sellers are doing very well. Buyers will do well if they are successful in finding and snagging a home yet this year, but future months will probably see higher prices and mortgage interest rates. The "Good Ole Days" for buyers in Ventura County are gone for good. 

Mark Thorngren                    Movewest Realty  -  (805) 443-3366
Dre Lic #01413932  -  Like me at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

As Prices Rise - Buyers Must Be More Wise


Ventura County’s Home Market For June
 

Just as we predicted in January, home prices are rising quickly. We have been hoping for a larger inventory of homes in order to help our buyers, but this is just not happening in much of Ventura County.  Across the USA, home prices are still an average 25 percent lower than at the height of the market in 2007/2008.  This means there are still a large number of people who are upside down on their home values and cannot afford to put their homes on the market quite yet. As a result we simply do not have enough homes to show our prospective home buyers.  

Low inventory and strong demand are fueling double digit price increases. In various California markets we have seen greater than 20 percent price increases over the previous 12 months. According to MLS Listings Incorporated, home prices rose 47 percent in Oakland and 45 percent in Santa Barbara from April’12 to April’13. The Santa Clara County – better known as Silicon Valley -  has seen the median single family home price rise to $795,000. This is near the all time peak of $850,000 set just before the crash.  

Ventura County, especially East Ventura County has experienced very strong growth with a bit more inventory coming to market than earlier this year.  Once a home gets to market, our buyers have to compete with multiple offers from other buyers and investors. Typically we have a 2 or 3 day response time to find a new home, view it, and write an offer before an offer is picked and accepted by the Sellers. Our Current market resembles the 2006 market where people were writing offers on the hood of their car after viewing a home.  

Interest rates have now begun to trend upwards and rose  for the third week in a row. Three weeks ago, they rose from 3.42 to 3.51 for a 30 year fixed. Then the rate went to 3.59 for the week ending May 23rd. We don’t see any near term trend changes here. Home prices are going up and that is inflationary by itself, but our national economy is also improving. A few more jobs and an improving stock market are also contributing to housing demand.  

Just as an aside, your family credit history has a huge impact on your ability to get a home loan. Most people don’t spend enough time reviewing their records for mistakes or for possible identity theft issues. Credit accuracy is a huge concern, and while better than a few years ago, Buyers often find discrepancies on their reports which need to be corrected before the loan process begins. You won’t have time to do this once an offer is on the table competing for the Sellers approval.

The only Federally Sanctioned free credit reporting website is www.AnnualCreditReport.com .  Here you can get a free copy of your report from each of the three major credit reporting agencies each year. According to FindLaw  A Thomson Reuters Business www.FindLaw.com -

22 percent of Americans have never even seen their credit report!  23 percent of 1,000 Americans surveyed said they have had a problem with their credit report – Including incorrect or outdated credit history or incorrect personal information. There were also problems reported with identity theft, and information mixed up with another consumers file! 

Do not overreach yourself to purchase your home. If you are pre-approved for $400,000, don’t just look at $400,000 homes!  If you are competing for a home, you must expect the winning offer will often be at or above the asking price. Your lender will not loan for more than the appraised value of a home. If you are tapped out at $400,000 and the appraised value came in at $390,000 for the home in our example above, you must make up the $10,000 difference between the appraised value and your winning offer with cash.  

Many times in our market the winning offer is above list price and made by an individual who is paying cash anyway.Yes, you can negotiate the difference with the Seller, but the Seller usually just accepts the next best offer. My point is, don’t put yourself in a position where you cannot afford to be the winning offer. Find a home for less. 

Find a home for less. Lower your immediate expectations and consider a less expensive home. Find a home priced low enough that your cash reserves cover the downpayment/good faith deposit, closing costs, home inspection and a little more for you to beat the competition. If you can do all that and be happy with your home of choice, you greatly increase your chances of successfully competing in this Seller’s market. Whatever home you find in Ventura County today will probably be selling for 10 to 20 percent more in within the next six months to a year.  

So what does all this mean if you want to buy a home in Ventura County? Buyers must do more preparation when they are ready to go shopping. Check your credit history, get pre-approved with your lender for an amount that will allow you to subsist, should you be successful with your offer.  Prepare yourself emotionally and financially. Don’t be greedy – be smart.
 

You can win.

Mark Thorngren

 

Like me on facebook at: www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor and check out the latest videos on our national markets and newest mortgage trends. Updated weekly. 

DRE Lic. #01413932

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Turning the Corner in Ventura County


 
 
Hello Folks, 

We may have turned the corner in Ventura County.  This is the first month I have seen an across the board increase in the total number of properties that have come to market during the past month!  The total number of properties for sale has increased in most towns as well. Of the ten city markets I track, I only saw Agoura Hills and Westlake Village a bit low on the number of properties for sale. However they are experiencing strong sales with 61 homes sold in April compared to 44 in March. This may mean that their market is so hot that they cannot maintain their inventory – it sells as soon as it comes on the market! 

January 2013 was a better month than December 2012. February continued the trend upwards but March took kind of a breather with weak showings in most of the numbers I track. Not unusual from my experience as people tighten their belts to pay taxes in April. There was some stock market volatility during the early months of this year as well. I don’t pretend to be able to separate cause and effect on our local real estate market, but the numbers for April are very encouraging with numbers bouncing back from March and in most cases exceeding the numbers we saw earlier in February.  

Oxnard and Port Hueneme have seen strong, steady improvement in their markets this last month with numbers returning to the level of January’s sales after dipping down in Feb and March. The number of properties that sold in January were 92 vs April’s 138!  The number of properties for sale are back up to 165 homes  -  with 74 of those homes coming to market just last month. 138 homes actually sold last month, so it’s easy to see there is strong demand – nearly twice as many homes sold as came new to the market last month. Guess what that is going to do to prices in Oxnard and Port Hueneme?! We are going to see some very strong home prices as this year continues to build. 

Camarillo’s market has performed in similar fashion to Oxnard and Port Hueneme but on a much smaller scale. The current inventory numbers are back to January’s levels but properties sold are up from 42 homes sold in January to 81 for April!  Again, like Oxnard and Port Hueneme, monthly sales doubled from the start of the year. 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park have seen the number of homes on the market increase from 102 in January to 133 in April. In the 31 days of January we had 53 homes come to market. In the 30 days of April we saw 79 homes come to market. The number of homes which actually sold in January was 66, almost doubling to 125 homes in April. These are great numbers! 

Moorpark has seen it’s inventory slowly increase from January’s 28 homes to April’s 38 homes on the market. In January there were 9 homes that came to market during the month, which has increased to 21 homes in the month of April. Demand has remained surprisingly flat with 28 homes actually selling in January compared to 30 homes in April.  

Simi Valley and Wood Ranch have seen some major market improvements despite the same dips in the market for February and March that everone else experienced. We had 46 homes come to market in January and 60 homes come to market in April. 96 homes sold in January and 113 homes sold this last April.

Interestingly, we had 152 homes go into escrow in January and 175 homes in April so obviously there is a bit higher demand for homes in this market than Moorpark. 

Ventura has had the biggest struggle regaining it’s market inventory. Inventory has still not recovered from February and March’s dip. There are currently 90 homes available in Ventura compared to 168 last January. April saw 38 homes come to market compared to 88 in January. Still the demand appears to be pretty constant with 84 homes selling last January and 81 homes in April.
 
With roughly half as many homes coming to market each month as selling each month – demand is strong and price increases will continue. Once prices reach the level where folks can afford to sell their homes without taking a loss, I think we will see many more homes coming to market in Ventura. That time is rapidly approaching.  

Take care, 
Mark Thorngren

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Ventura County Market Trends for 2013

Ventura County Market Analysis


Our Ventura County Market is marching in a very new direction for 2013. Last year we saw home prices beginning to edge up and home inventories dry up. Concerns about the world- wide economy, our national economy, the presidential election, the “Fiscal Cliff” and even the end of the world Mayan Calendar have had everyone second guessing our local real estate market.

Apparently our world did not end and people are still buying and selling real estate. Who knew Mayans could be such practical jokers?

Prices are still low but they are moving upwards at what I predict will be an accelerating pace. There has been data analysis of our market by San Diego based “DataQuick” which stated the median county home prices rose by about 7.5% last year and roughly 16.7% in Los Angeles. The median home sale price in Ventura County rose from $335,000 to $360,000. (See Ventura County Star – 11/14/2012)

One of the interesting sidelights of this new market is that more expensive homes appear to be selling again as well. In Ventura County, 55 homes sold for more than $800,000 in the month of October – up 52.6 % from a year ago!

In January of 2012, we had 421 homes for sale in Oxnard and Port Hueneme. By December of 2012 we had 122 homes on the market! In Camarillo, we went from 198 homes to 71 homes on the market for the same time frame. We simply do not have enough homes for sale to meet local demand anymore. With demand high and supply low there can be only one outcome. Higher prices.

Frankly, the market in many ways resembles the market we had in 2002 – 2007. Any single family detached home in reasonable condition for under $400,000 has frequently been the target of multiple offers, bidding wars and sale prices exceeding listing prices. Once again, cash is king, since appraisals frequently come in low for these homes. That is a typical indicator of a market with significant price increases.

Buyers must make up the difference between sale price and appraisal with cash. Often, first time home buyers must stretch to reach the list price, so trying to find an additional $5,000 or $10,000 to close the deal is difficult. Investors typically are not affected since they usually pay cash regardless of any appraisal. They may not even order an appraisal. Investor groups are very popular for this reason. They simply roll over and crush any loan financed competition.

So what’s next? I predict home prices will continue upwards and trigger the renewed building of new home developments. Certainly, more folks will decide to list their homes as prices begin achieving the levels where they are no longer upside down on their loans. Some of these folks will finally be able to refinance out of their arm loans and into today’s market interest rates. A great deal of financial pain will be relieved for these home owners, allowing them to use their earnings for a broader range of consumer products and services.

As more people list their homes, the upward pressure on home prices may moderate from present levels as supply begins to catch up with demand. I think prices will continue upwards in the double digits from this year for at least the next several years before we see prices slow again. There is just too much pent up demand.

Short sales and foreclosures will be with us for at least a few more years but the number of these sales is a much smaller portion of total sales today than just 2 years ago when over 60% of all our sales were distressed sales. I believe they make up less than half of that number today, but I don’t have any hard data on them.

Short sales have one year left as an advantaged viable option for home sellers. Congress did renew the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act for one more year. We are hoping that the State of California will do the same. (Additional conditions apply) This allows a homeowner to short sale their home, pay no commission for the sale of their home, ( the mortgage holding bank pays ) and no taxes on their capital gains mortgage debt. Personally, with rising home prices, I don’t expect to see this relief extended past this year.

Finally, interest rates may begin to see more upward movement before the end of 2013. As our economy continues to improve and more homes are built, I believe we will begin to see the beginnings of inflationary pressures on our local, and nationwide economies. That may signal the start of a more definitive increase in interest rates. I’m not an economist, but we have had several years of historically low interest rates and our market has responded. The Fed will soon have no reason to artificially hold rates down.

Competition for nicer homes will remain intense this year so buyers must have patience, be pre-approved and have the ability to make home buying decisions quickly. Putting off a home purchase for an extended time will probably be a costly decision.

For home sellers, the market is headed your way. Most folks should see prices high enough to list again in a much shorter period of time than they may have thought possible. Just remember if you delay in selling your home, the purchase of an equivalent home may cost more as well. Conversely, listing homes at wildly inflated prices may still cause them to sit while replacement homes increase in price. Neighborhood sold trends still are the best indicators of sales success when pricing your home.

We are in a time of transition now. I believe prices and interest rates will continue upwards this year and probably more quickly than most people expect. Home inventory will remain tight for most of this year until prices allow homeowners to refinance or list at a profit again. Home prices fell a long way over the last 5 or 6 years so this may take some time.





Mark Thorngren

Movewest Realty, Inc.



For more information you are welcome to visit http://realtytimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren , or the blog tab of my website at www.markthorngren.com

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

1503 Windshore Way

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style="font-family:arial;font-size:22px;">Resort Style Living near Beach

and Channel Islands Harbor -

$170,000


style="margin-top:10px">

style=style="font-family:arial;font-size:16px;color:#666">Priced below market value: Only

$170,000.00


href="http://www.emailflyers.net/photos.asp?id=28637" target="_blank">SRC="http://www.emailflyers.net/flyers/13930/28637-1.jpg" alt="Click to view" border="0">

cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0">

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style="font-family:arial;size:12px;line-height:1.1em;">Hueneme
Bay offers great resort style
living. Great opportunity to own
a 3/3 Villa now available
for quick sale price. Copper
plumbing recently installed. Newer patio
cover. Exterior just painted. Enjoy
the Ocean Breeze as you
play a 9 hole golf
course, swim in heated pool,
enjoy a sauna or the
spa. So much to do
and enjoy in this Resort
style Senior Carefree living. Walkability
is a plus. Short Sale

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width="8%">src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">align="left">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Newer Patio Cover

src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Exterior new paint

src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Fireplace

src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Golf Course


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src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">align="left">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Newer Monet Faucets

src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Newer Copper Piping

src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/bullet-gray.gif" width="14" height="14">size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">

style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Walkability score 86

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style="font-family:arial;font-size:13px">Heated Pool/Spa





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bgcolor="#F0F0F0">

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valign="top">














face="Arial, Helvetica,
sans-serif">MLS:


size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> 11017889


Sq Ft:


align="left">1481

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Yr Built:


align="left">1970

align="left">


Bdrms:


face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">3


align="left">Baths:


face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">3


align="left">Pool:


face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Yes - Community

align="left">


Parking:


face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">2 Car Garage

align="left">


Asking:


size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">$170,000  





valign="top">






valign="top">


size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">2580 Neptune
Place


size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Port Hueneme,
CA

align="left">


93041


face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/spacer.gif" width="1" height="18">













Darla Dennis
805-216-1806









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Lic#: 01796649






valign="top">


Movewest Realty, Inc.







2185 Ventura Blvd
Camarillo,
CA93010


805-504-0223src="http://www.emailflyers.net/images/fairhouseinglogo.gif">

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Monday, March 5, 2012

Home Inventories Shrink in Ventura County

Decreasing home inventory is very good for home sellers. It’s just supply and demand – when there is less supply there is usually greater demand, ie: Gradually increasing home prices. Although this may be just a short term decrease in inventory, I’m cautiously optimistic. Here’s why…

Every month I do a little report for myself to see where our market is heading. Generally I see mild trends that may not change significantly for 6 or 8 months at a time. This month was different.


In Camarillo, the total number of Single Family Detached homes for sale dropped from 155 to 134 - Townhomes dropped from 43 to 34. Last July we had over 200 SFD homes on the market, so to drop to 134 homes in just 8 months is a strong trend.

In Oxnard, the total number of SFD homes for sale dropped from 253 in January to 147 at the end of February! Townhomes dropped from 168 Units to 77 Units! The number of properties that went into contract was still high but that is because there is usually an average 30 – 90 day lag between when homes are listed and when they go under contract (accept an offer).

Most of the other statistics I check showed similar drops as you can see.
It appears that we are beginning to see a possible shift in our marketplace from a strong buyers market to the possibility of a housing inventory shortage.

The next several months could be very significant in terms of changing from a buyers market to the beginning of a sellers market. Certainly these numbers (if they continue to fall or hold at these low values) would tend to indicate that our market is bottoming.

A continuing trend like this would seem to point the way in Ventura County towards gradually improving home values.

Mark Thorngren


Mark Thorngren
Realtor DRE# 01413932
Movewest Realty Inc.
Direct (805) 504-0228
Mark@MarkThorngren.com
www.MarkThorngren.com

Free Realty Times Video News Letter



Fair Warning

This email is for folks who are considering the purchase of a new home sometime this year. I have included 2 attachments which describe in detail our local market changes for Camarillo and Oxnard. Basically, our existing home inventory is shrinking rapidly. Fewer homes to pick from means increasing home prices.

Silverio Garcia is a local Mortgage Broker who sent me today - the email you see below. This combination of inventory changes and increasing mortgage costs have not taken effect yet, but they may indicate some changes for buyers, that will soon make home ownership more expensive. I’m thinking sometime yet this year we may begin to notice some gradual price changes.

Here is Silverio’s email:
I'm sure by now you have heard rumors that FHA is increasing their premiums. While a Mortgagee Letter has not yet been issued we felt that we should introduce the information we have at this point. When the Mortgagee Letter is posted we will issue a formal notification of change.


With the increases hopefully borrowers who have just been thinking about buying may be ready to spring into action to avoid the increases. Please inform all of your clients of these changes and let’s get them into escrow before these changes are effective. Please call me 805-479-9283 if you have any further questions or if you need any of you clients to be pre-approved TODAY!!!!!!!!!


Increased annual premium - 10 basis points across for the board to 1.25% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st

Additional annual premium increase for loans over $625,500 - 25 basis points to 1.50% ( Today it’s 1.15%)
Implementation delayed until June 1,2012: Case numbers assigned on or after June 1st

Increased upfront premium - 75 basis points: Total upfront premium - 1.75% (Today it’s 1.0)
Implementation - April 1, 2012: Case numbers assigned on or after April 1st
Applies to all loans regardless of LTV or amortization term

Silverio Garcia

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Update on Moorpark Highlands - The Pinnacle

Update on Moorpark Highlands Communities

The Pinnacle

The Pinnacle is a small hillside community of beautiful upscale homes tucked away behind two separate, private gated entries. Located off Ridgecrest Drive just North of Moorpark is this latest Moorpark Highlands development.


The original KB development was a bit of a non-starter. It began as a Pardee Homes community with four models of homes approved though the City of Moorpark. Pardee sold the development and the city approved home designs to KB Homes. KB built three model homes which simply sat unsold. They were nice homes, but the market simply wasn’t there.


Toll Brothers purchased the property and the city approved plans for four of the Pardee Home Models. Working with the City of Moorpark, Toll Brothers had three additional floor plans approved and the development re-plotted to accommodate these models. Toll Brothers rebuilt one of the model homes to the luxury standards they are known for, and simply sold off the other two older KB model homes. A new Toll Brothers “San Miguel” model home was constructed and opened to the public last September.


Sales were slow to begin until buyers began to realize the quality and value inherent in these new homes. That sounds like a sales pitch, but my personal opinion is that Toll Brothers had some real challenges to overcome with public perception until the reality of what was being built here became apparent. I’m told sales are steady now. There simply is nothing new in Ventura County being built in this price range to this quality standard.


The price list for these seven models show prices ranging from roughly $855,000 for a Santa Susana model up to about $1,040,000 for a Chateau version of the Isla Vista Model. These are Feb 1, 2012 prices and will likely rise as sales continue to improve.


Homes are built from 7 available floor plans which include both single and 2- story homes. Currently there are 17 home lots released for sale out of a total of 132 lots in The Pinnacle. Three additional homes are in escrow and 18 homes have already sold. By my count, that means that presently there are 111 lots left to sell. Homes take 7 to 9 months to build and according to their onsite sale manager – Kathleen Martin – they expect to sell about 40% of them as single story models.


I like these homes. They come with many options, including extra rooms, balconies, wet bar or fireplaces. You can choose from 5 types of granite for your kitchen counters, different marbles for the bathrooms or standard tile. Kitchen cabinets are self-closing so you don’t need to fear bruising your side on sharp edges while you bustle around the kitchen with your hands full. Kitchen Aid appliances are standard for the kitchens.


Kohler tub and plumbing fixtures come standard in the bathrooms. Master bathrooms are lavish with jetted tubs and separate shower enclosures. They include double basin Pullman cabinets and often come with a little makeup counter. Count on a large walk-in closet for Mom, but Dad will have to share or he’s on his own. (Some plans have his/hers walk-in closets).


These homes offer $20,000 multi-slide patio doors which slide right into wall recesses, 2 or 3 zone air conditioning and options for pre-installed recessed solar panels that will offer considerable energy savings over the years. These solar panels are well executed and blend in with the contours of the homes instead of looking like a high school science project gone bad. Solar panels are an option who’s time has come. They just make good sense in Ventura County.


Solar panels come with a 20 year lease from Sun Run - a major solar provider - for $45/month. Since most home sizes average 4,000 to 5,000 square feet I’ll leave it to the reader to imagine how much this could save in heating and air-conditioning costs. Also, solar power is an option that allows the use of tankless water heaters, thereby eliminating the costs of continuously heating 75 gallons of water in the standard water heater installed here.


Lot sizes run from about 31,000 sq ft to as much as 47,000 sq ft for lots fronting the arroyo on the West side of the development. I’d say more typical lot sizes range from 14,000 to 20,000 ft for more central properties. Landscaping, pools with Jacuzzi and lavish BBQ areas highlight the spectacular views that many of these homes enjoy.


Imagine sipping something cold and delicious while sitting comfortably in your favorite patio chair on a stonework patio shaded by a wooden beamed framework. Your spouse grills nearby on a permanent BBQ with maybe a mini-bar and gas warmers. Your kids and your neighbors’ kids splash around in the pool or play down the street at the Moorpark Highlands 7 acre park with tennis and basketball courts.


After dinner when the kids are in bed, you and your spouse can share some time in the Jacuzzi and admire the marvelous hillside views.


It’s not my intention to try to list all the wonderful features of these homes – go online to http://www.thepinnacleatmoorparkhighlands.com/ call Kathleen Martin or Diane Valenza at (805) 532-2007 or call me for more in depth information or to schedule a private viewing.


My bottom line impression is simply that these homes start with a high standard of quality and build additional enhancements to your taste.


Now let’s talk about the fine print.


Each home comes with two HOA fees. There is a $95 Moorpark Highlands Master Association Fee and a $145 Pinnacle Association Fee – total $240/month. There is also a very substantial Mello Roos for each property from the City of Moorpark. The local Mello Roos is a 40 year posted bond or city tax. Over the course of the 40 years this adds up to between $50,000 and $70,000 (depending on home size) paid to the City of Moorpark by each home owner.


When you buy a home in the Pinnacle Community, Toll Brothers will pay off your Mello Roos! To my knowledge, no other Moorpark Highlands development has offered its’ buyers this bargain. Of course this begs the question – don’t they just tack that cost on to the home price? The sales office has stated to me that the cost of the Mello Roos is not passed along to buyers. Toll Brothers is serious about selling these homes at a value price.


Some of the other nice things about Toll Brothers homes include what they call a “First Home Buyer Orientation” which is a 300 item checklist that each homebuyer reviews 5 to 7 days before closing on their new home. A “Second Homebuyer Orientation” is completed just before closing to ensure completion of any discrepancies found during the first orientation. This is a very nice way to reinforce buyer confidence in the quality of their new home. A ten-year limited warranty comes with your new home.


These are not exotic mansions and you won’t see many captains of industry helicoptering to and from these homes. Short of that, these are fine homes in a pleasant semi-rural area. Just be aware that there are not many homes in this development. It is a rather special place to raise a family or to retire in comfort.


Just the way I see it,
Mark Thorngren


(805) 504-0228
mark@movewest.com
http://www.markthorngren.com/