Camarillo
continues the gradual decline in total home
inventory from a Sept 2014 peak of 265 homes. Home inventory in January was 198
homes dropping slightly to 195 homes in Feb, and finally falling to 163 homes
for March 2015. Total home inventory
includes single family homes, condos and townhomes currently listed for sale in
each community. Home inventory does not include manufactured or mobile homes,
or rental property.
This trend is similar
to last year when total home inventory fell from 161 homes in Jan, to 150 in
Feb, to 122 homes in March. Even though we may not like this trend, at least
the total inventory this year is significantly higher than last year. Last year
in 2014 we saw a turn-around in April with 178 homes coming to market, so we’ll
just have to hold our breath and see if the same performance occurs again this
April to breathe life back into our market.
Another trend
repeating itself is the increasing number of monthly home sales despite falling
inventory. For 2014 we saw Jan sales at 37 homes, Feb sales at 40 homes, and
Mar sales at 64 homes. 2015 is apparently duplicating last years’ trend with
Jan sales of 40 homes, Feb sales at 61 homes, and Mar with 100 sales! – 100
sales is a nice increase perhaps signaling better things to come in Camarillo.
However, there is
serious trouble brewing for home buyers. We have a strong sellers’ market shown
by the increasing number of sales each month this quarter, while the number of
homes that sellers are putting on the market each month is decreasing. We had
76 homes come to market during the month of January. February saw the number
fall to 65, and March saw only 57 homes come to market.
Monthly inventory differs from total inventory in that only homes which
were put on sale during a specific month are included in that months inventory.
Inventory listed prior to a specific month is not included in a specific months
monthly inventory. Monthly inventory is a great tool to use to spot market
trends.
So what kind of a
trend is Camarillos’ monthly inventory revealing? Fewer homes are being offered
for sale each month. Simply put, the housing well is running dry. Demand is
strong, mortgage interest rates continue to be held down by the Fed, yet we
have little inventory to offer buyers. Low supply and strong demand points
toward higher home prices coming to a neighborhood near you.
Today is near the
middle of April, and as I write this there are 171 homes on the market in
Camarillo. Only 20 of these homes and condominiums are priced below $500,000! 151 homes are currently listed at or above a
half million dollars. At some point our market will be saturated with higher
priced homes that may need a longer time frame in order to sell. There are an
insignificant number of low priced homes on our market. This means very few
first time home buyers will be capable of a home purchase in Camarillo.
It will be
interesting to see what effect this market will have on things like K-12
student populations, rental prices and the number of people willing to accept
new job positions in local industry with such high housing costs.
Greater control of new
home development is finally elbowing its’ way into long term city planning. In
the last 12 months at least 2 new developments were slowed or rejected for
reconsideration. One very large development between the 101 and CSUCI was
rejected and another new development on what is currently the Catholic Church Seminary
off Upland Road was also halted. My guess is that these developments most
likely will be built at some point in the future, but on a reduced scale from
what developers originally planned.
There are some
exceptions of course. 1300 new homes will be built as part of the Springville
Development adjacent to the 101, but according to Camarillo Public Works
Director Tom Fox “We don’t allow new customers to build in the city unless they
provide their own water source. In the case of the Springville development of
1,300 homes, the land was previously used to grow strawberries, a very
water-intensive crop. Homes use far less water, so the extra water can be
transferred to the city.” This was from a very informative article which appeared
in the April 10, 2015 Ventura County Star, detailing water conservation efforts
in Camarillo.
By my count, Camarillo has
had at least 14 new home developments under construction or in the advanced
planning stage. Four in Village at
the Park (Hanover, Somerset, Village
Commons, Village Park Collection and 10 in the new Springville Development. (see development link below) www.ci.camarillo.ca.us/docsSpringville%20New%20Homes%20&%20Affordable%20Units.pdf
Median single family home prices in Camarillo last reported for Feb show prices down 8.4%
from Jan at $520,00 but up 1% from
Feb of last year. This compares to the Ventura County median single family home
price of $541,119. The number of home sales is up by 88% from Feb of 2014 which
is more than any other city I study in Ventura County. (Data from
ClarusMarketMetrics and Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors.)
Oxnard
Unlike
Camarillo, the total home inventory in
Oxnard has shown a strong, steady increase from the 212 homes on the market
last December. Jan saw a jump up to 252 homes, Feb to 260 homes followed by
another jump to 286 homes in Mar. This is down from the June 2014 peak of 344
homes, yet the trend is a strong one
which I suspect may continue upwards to a higher peak this year.
The number of
homes coming to market each month has remained fairly constant at between
114 to 122 homes each month. Sales are a bit volatile but improving with 91
homes sold in Jan, 65 in Feb and a big jump to 144 homes sold in Mar.
The Ventura County Star announced on Friday April 3rd
that a brand new home community will soon be constructed at the previously
named North Shore at Mandalay Bay. This development was a casualty of the
recession but is now being resurrected by Irvine-based developer SunCal. This
new 292 unit project will be called Beach-Walk on the Mandalay Coast.
Thirty Five years ago this was a hazardous waste
site after being used as an oil field waste disposal facility between 1954 and
1981. According to the article in the Ventura County Star, Hazardous waste
cleanup was overseen by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control
and was finished in 2008. The property
was repossessed from its previous developer in 2009 after more than $63.8
million had already been spent on it.
SunCal purchased the bank owned property in 2013 for $32.25 million. Plans
are now in the making to offer the first homes for sale sometime during the
second quarter of 2016.
The Nov median home price in Oxnard was $415,000, up
from $410,000 in Sept. The new number for February
2015 stands at $465,000 up 19% just
from January!
Port
Hueneme had a median sale price for Nov of $300,500… the
lowest in Ventura County. It now stands at $360,000 up 1.6% from Jan 2015 and still with the lowest median home sale
price in Ventura County.
Ventura
The total home inventory has risen from 145 homes in December to 162 in Jan,
152 in Feb and back up to 163 homes for Mar. The monthly home inventory has trended the same as total inventory.
Beginning with a low of 33 homes coming to market in Dec, monthly inventory
jumped all the way to 76 homes for Jan 2015, back to 56 homes in Feb and
recovered to 73 homes again in March. Total sales numbers bottomed at 55 home
sales in Jan, up to 67 homes in Feb and rocketed up to 98 homes in March 2015.
As of April 2015 The Orchard Collection in East Ventura has nearly sold out in both
of its’ new home tracts. The Plantation
with 59 single family homes started construction in the Fall of 2011 and was
noteworthy for having no Mello Roos and a low HOA of $240/month. The
development was priced roughly 10% below market and quickly sold out. The Grove is 60 townhome/condominiums
and also has no mello roos and a low HOA of $240/month and includes water,
sewer, exterior maintenance and homeowner insurance. Prices start at $384,990
for a Plan 1 and at $399,990 for a Plan 2. This is another great value for
first time home buyers especially. With less than 10 homes remaining, I would
expect the final phase to be sold out before mid- May.
The April 13 Ventura County Star has reported that
the Ventura City Council will soon be considering a complete moratorium on new
residential development. The plan is to block further development until 2 Feb
2016, at which time new applications will be considered until 31 Mar 2016.
Anything submitted after that time frame or anything deemed incomplete for
consideration will have to wait until some unspecified future date. Things like
affordable housing or projects which are already years along in development
will be excluded from the moratorium. Like Camarillo, Ventura wishes to develop
better control and evaluation of new home development.
The
November 2014 median price of a home in Ventura was $471,500
but has rebounded to $530,000 in February 2015, up 7.6% from
January on a 34% increase in number of
sales in just one month.
Santa
Paula and Fillmore have seen nearly identical total home inventories during the 1st Quarter
2015. Santa Paula listed 26 homes
for Jan, 24 for Feb and 21 for Mar.
Fillmore saw 26 homes in Jan, 26 for Feb and 21 for Mar. Home sales have also stayed flat with between
6 and 8 homes selling per month in each city. This is a slight decrease from
the 10 to 12 homes sold in each month of the 4th quarter 2014.
The Feb 2015 median
price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula is $449,750 up 40% from
a year ago! This continues a very steep upward pricing trend. Fillmore has a median home price of $432,500
up from $336,000 last May with a 10.9% increase in prices from a year ago.
This is a much stronger median price increase than the county-wide average of
4.1%.
Moorpark
saw
total home listing inventory decrease from 102 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Nov,
to 72 homes in Dec . This trend continued into Jan 2015 with 67 homes listed,
falling further to 63 homes in Feb but finally nudging back upwards to 74 homes
listed in Mar. Total closed sales were
43 homes in Dec, dropping to 25 home sales in Jan 2015, 26 in Feb and finally
rising slightly to 30 homes in Mar.
Moorpark appears to be one of the fastest growing
cities in Ventura County with at least four very expensive new home
developments north of the 118 – The Estates
Collection, The Executive Collection, Moorpark Highlands and The Pinnacle at
Moorpark. Another much more modestly priced development is being built
South of the 118 – Ivy Lanes. Home
sales in these new communities are not generally reflected in our MLS.
Ivy
Lanes is a 99 home tract located at 13353 Pembury Court
with roughly half of these homes still available for sale. The HOA runs
$150/month, 3 plans, 1600 sq ft for Plan One – priced from $442,900, roughly
2,000 sq ft for both Plan Two – priced from $499,900 and Plan Three – priced
from $474,900. They are all 2 story townhomes. The design and size of these
homes makes them feel very much like single family homes. I like what I saw
when I visited Ivy Lanes last week. There is a lot of value here and the
floorplans were open, high tech and comfy. Yards are tiny, but at least each
home has one, compared with most new condo complexes which usually have no yard
whatsoever.
Median
home price in Moorpark for Feb 2015 was $615,500, up 10.9% from Feb 2014.
Sales are up 11.1% from Feb of 2014.
Simi
Valley & Wood Ranch The present home inventory is substantially
lower than last years peak of roughly 300 homes available during July and
August. We had 239 homes listed in Jan,
219 in Feb and 225 in Mar revealing no strong trends. Sales stood at 96 homes in Jan, 82 in Feb and
finally rising to 112 in Mar.
As of the second week in April there were just 4
condo homes left of the original 72 built in The Marketplace located at 4363 Eileen Street. All 4 homes are Plan
1 homes listed from $426,000 to as high as $479,900. Plan 2 homes are all sold
out but I had the opportunity to visit the Plan 2 model and I thought it was
comfortable. It had No yard but the
homes were adequate. The homes come with a Master Association Dues of
$165/month and additional Sub Association dues “anticipated to be approximately
$188/month.
Plan 1 homes are a bit tight by comparison to Plan 2
homes. Plan 1 homes come in 2 and 3 story models. Each of the 3 floors has it’s
own family room. The third floor is a loft, but with no bathroom on that level.
All homes facing the street are nearly zero lot line
fronting onto the sidewalk, with no fences or privacy walls. There are shopping
centers and strip malls just across the street in 2 directions, so you are
within easy walking distance for many of your shopping needs.
It is interesting to note that just East of Simi
Valley through the pass and just North of the 118 there is new expansion of the
Porter Ranch Development with The Glen
opening for sales in the third week of April. Again, these are luxury homes at
luxury home prices.
The
median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley is $495,000 for Feb
2015,
up 11.2% over Feb 2014. The number of home sales have increased an awesome
48.6% from 12 months ago! This market is healing quickly.
Thousand
Oaks and Newbury Park The
first quarter of 2015 is seeing a reversal of last quarters’ downward trend in total home inventory. Starting with
just 184 homes in Dec, we have witnessed a turnaround with 215 homes listed in
Jan 2015, 247 in Feb and 264 homes in Mar. This increasing total home inventory
looks very healthy and we hope this trend continues. Even the number of homes
coming to market during each month is beginning to build again from 100 in Jan,
and 95 in Feb, to a stronger 121 homes in Mar. Sales followed the same trend
with 87 homes sold in Jan, a slight dip to 62 in Feb and a big bounce back to
107 homes sold in March.
A new gated community will be opening for sales
during the weekend of April 18 in Thousand Oaks. Guess what kind of homes will
be sold. “Three and four bedrooms … priced from the low $1 millions.” Surprise!
Just 20 homes are being built.
“The luxury homes at Twenty Oaks will range from
approximately 2,900 square feet to more than 4,000 sq ft on homesites averaging
14,000 sq ft with spectacular views of the Santa Monica Mountains. Twenty Oaks is located at Mayflower Street
and Warwick Avenue in Thousand Oaks, just north of the Janss Marketplace.”
Visit www.TwentyOaksNWHM.com for more information.
Median
Feb price for a home in TO was $728,000 up from $717,500 in Sept 2014
and a 17.4% increase from a year ago. The number of home sales is down 19.4%
from a year ago.
Median price for a home in Newbury Park
stood at $625,000 for Feb 2015 down from $639,000 in Sept 2014. This is a
7.7% decrease from Feb 2014. The number of home sales were up for Feb year over
year by 5.6%. So prices are down just a bit, but sales numbers are up a
bit.
Agoura
Hills & Oak
Park saw their total home inventory
build to a peak of 136 homes in July, then gradually taper back to 81 homes in
Dec’14. Thankfully, we are again seeing the total number of listings building
back up once again. Total inventory rose to 91 homes in Jan, then 104 homes in
Feb and again rising to 113 homes in Mar 2015. Sales mirrored Thousand Oaks
with 32 homes sold in Jan, a dip to 21 homes in Feb and a bounce back to 42
homes in March.
Oak Park saw its’ median Feb home price rise to
$716,000 up from $685,000 in September. This is still an 8.2% drop in sales
price for Feb year over year, and a
whooping drop of 50% in the total number of home sales from a year ago.
Westlake
Village & Lake Sherwood Total home inventory for Jan 2015 was up to
127 homes from just 96 homes in Jan 2014. The total inventory high for 2014 was
175 homes in July, and 174 homes in Aug. Thereafter the numbers dove to 106 in
Dec’14. March 2015 total inventory stands at 145 homes, so it appears we have a
good chance of matching last years peak inventory if this rising inventory
trend continues.
Monthly sales for Jan 2015 were 25 homes which
matched the 25 homes sold in Jan 2014. We sold another 25 homes in Feb and
doubled total sales to 50 in March 2015. This compares to the peak of 58 homes
sold in June 2014, so homes sales look promising for 2015.
Median Feb home price in Westlake Village was
$897,000 which compares to the September 2014 $830,000, and November 2014 at
$1,200,000 for a median home price. As you can see, the numbers are pretty
erratic. I attribute this to the low number of home sales versus the very high
home prices. It’s easy for small number of home sales to effect the overall
market trend in this market.
Summary
The first quarter of 2015 has begun much as it did
last year, but at slightly higher total inventory numbers in most cities. Our
market seems healthier, with a building total home inventory but still with
tentative sales in many communities.
I suspect that the robust new home construction
market may be slanting some of our market numbers, since brand new homes are
not often entered into our local MLS. In other words, more homes are being sold
than I can include in my research. My
discussions with Sales Counselors in the new Ventura County home developments
reveal that their sales are very strong. It is comforting that market sales are
benefiting from increased new home inventory and strong buyer demand, yet it is
also cause for concern when we reflect on the challenges that new home
construction forces upon us.
We see many new
mandatory regulations on water use for existing home owners, but many hundreds
of new homes continue to be built throughout Ventura County. Now the state is
mandating a 25% reduction in water use in each city in California. It should be
interesting to see how each of our communities will cope with this challenge,
as most of the cities in Ventura County have ambitious plans for new home construction.
We may need to consider the effects of new home
construction upon our communities in terms of public services, traffic, school
construction, cost of living, business recruitment and operating costs, as well
as the impact on our finite water resources. I believe many people are beginning to notice that poorly regulated
home development comes at a high cost to the quality of life for all of us.
So maybe the issue
isn’t so much what price range should be built to meet current home buyer
demand, but rather, should we be building so many new homes? Do we need to put
our communities at risk by straining our resources further with more building
or do we need to put our energy and efforts into developing new sources of
water, repairing infrastructure and improving our local business/jobs climate.
Can this be done without raising taxes? Are expensive new home developments
supporting local quality of life or threatening it?
Clearly, our community leaders will need to carefully
weigh and balance the advantages of the taxable income a new home development brings
to city coffers, versus the many expensive demands it creates on the entire
community.
Just the way I see it.
Mark
Thorngren
All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted.
Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the
MLS. All opinions are those of the author.
Call for a free market review of your home! (805)443-3366
