Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis - 3rd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

3rd Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)

Camarillo has seen small but steady gains in home inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost stale market.

Last year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for 2014. We had more summer home sales in 2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to 79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September 2014 ). 

Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79 days on the market – about the same as 2014.

The September median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County was $540,000,  down  -5.1% from August. The median price of a SFD home in Camarillo was also $540,000 up from April’s $532,500, but down -5.1% from the August median. So median price increase averages about $1,600/month.

One of the interesting things comparing these two summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from 150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of 2013’s increase.

As I write this in the second week of October there are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo. There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only 40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.

Obviously, with only 40 homes out of roughly 265 homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD are mostly out of their reach.

Oxnard The number of homes for sale has risen from 214 homes in September 2013 to 314 Homes as of September 2014. This is down from the June’14 peak of 344 homes. Still, this is an average increase in inventory of 100 homes year over year. The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, peaking at 134 homes in June and dropping back to 117 homes in Sept. 

Total Oxnard home sales in Sept – 108 homes – are close to matching the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May, 135 homes sold in June, 129 for July and 132 for Aug, before dropping back to Septembers 108 home sales. There still isn’t much wind in the sale sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, has increased to $410,000 for Sept.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 223 homes in Sept. The number of homes coming to market each month has trended downward during this third quarter from 91 homes in July, to 85 homes in August and 76 homes in September. Total sales fell from 97 in July, and 99 in August… to 87 by September.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000. The median rose slightly for the summer months and has returned once more to $505,000 for September.

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen no appreciable increase in total home inventories during the 3^rd quarter.  Santa Paula saw an increasing trend during the past 2^nd quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June. The 3^rd quarter saw the inventory freeze at between 29 homes in July and 33 homes in September. These numbers are actually much weaker than last summer’13 numbers which climbed as high as 42 homes on the market for Sept’13. Total sales for Sept’14 were 8 homes sold – less than half the 20 homes sold in Sept’13.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000, rising to $412,000 by September. That is a very steep $60,000 median price increase in just 4 months.

Fillmore had a median price of $336,000 last May and rose to $354,500 by this Sept.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June. The 3^rd quarter saw a more gradual increase in total inventory to 112 homes. New monthly listings rose slightly from 36 in July to 42 by September.  The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers have bounced between 34 last June, to 42 in July, 43 in August and fell back to 30 for Sept. Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and never rising above that number until 36 homes sold in September.  So inventory has gradually increased while sales have remained remarkably flat for the 3^rd quarter in Moorpark.

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April! Now in September the median price has dropped back to $609,000.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June. Then the 3^rd quarter saw a steady decline in inventory from 328 homes in July to 304 in August, to 286 this September. The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, to 131 homes in July, 131 homes again in August and now dropping to 115 homes for September.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, and has since risen over the 3^rd quarter to $510,000 for September.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  Have seen their total home inventory decline slightly from 355 homes in July, to 344 homes in Aug, to 339 homes in Sept. This is still a much stronger market than a year ago when the September’13 inventory was just 197 homes. The number of home sales have declined over the 3^rd quarter from 132 homes in July, to 119 homes in August and just 93 homes sold in September’14. This compares to 136 homes sold in September’13. 

The market demand has been nearly identical between Sept’14 and Sept’14 with the number of Days On Market or DOM (the number of days needed to sell a home) at 57 last year vs 55 this year.  

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  and  $717,500 by Sept!  That is a $100,000 increase in median home prices in 4 months. No wonder sales have dropped over the 3^rd quarter!

Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  and has risen a slightly to $639,000.  (ref: www.terradatum.com )

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  saw their total market inventory build to a peak of 136 homes in July then taper back to 128 in August and 122 homes in September’14. Sales for Sept’14 were at 42 homes. 

  

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000, dropping to $685,000 in September, dropping more than 23% from August numbers!

Agoura Hills Saw it’s median home price drop year over year from $837,500 in Sept’13 to $542,599 in Sept’14. (ref: www.ClarusMarketMetrics.com ) We have to remember that Oak Park and Agoura Hills are smaller markets than most Conejo Valley communities, so it takes fewer home sales to skew the numbers.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. These numbers peaked in June and July at 175 homes and 174 homes on market respectively, then dropping slightly to 165 homes for September.  Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June.

The 3^rd quarter saw monthly new home inventory numbers reverse themselves with 60 homes coming to market in July, 47 in August and 42 in September. Monthly sales were fairly strong in July with 54 homes sold, August with 53 homes sold, tapering to 39 homes sold in September

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500. This September the numbers had fallen to $830,000 for a median home price.

Summary

County wide inventory is generally up over last year. Demand (DOM) has not appreciably increased, possibly because prices are still rising at a modest rate with some exceptions in the East Conejo Valley. September has been the weakest month of the 3^rd quarter for most criteria studied, but this a traditionally weak month. From all indications I study, the 4^th quarter will probably be an even weaker quarter for most of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren      (805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 014139

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author. Additional blogs found at:  http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/   or    http://activerain.trulia.com/blogs/markthorngren

Call for a free market review of your home. 

(805) 443-3366

Mark’s Camarillo Market Analysis 3rd Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)

Camarillo has seen small but steady gains in home inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost stale market.

Last year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for 2014. We had more summer home sales in 2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to 79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September 2014 ). Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79 days on the market – about the same as 2014. 

One of the interesting things comparing these two summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from 150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of 2013’s increase.

As I write this in the second week of October there are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo. There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only 40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.

Obviously, with only 40 homes out of 265 homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD (single family detached) are mostly out of their reach.

The national average age for first time home buyers is between the ages of 28 and 34. Echo Boomers are the largest demographic in the US (Echo Boomers or Gen Y – the sons and daughters of the Baby Boomer generation) with our household growth expected to increase by more than 1.25 million people annually for the next decade (according to a Harvard Study). Echo Boomers are just now entering the age range for first time home buyers and will continue to swell this sector for at least the next 10 years.

According to the National Association of Realtors = NAR, first time home buyers presently comprise 37% of the market nationally. Only 15% of homes in Camarillo are selling for less than $400,000. The national median home price for first time home buyers is $155,000. Obviously, Camarillo will not be attracting large numbers of first time home buyers. Those younger families that do settle here will most likely be renting or living with relatives.

On the other end of the demographic scale, the older Baby Boomers are now beginning to retire. Many of these folks would like to downsize and avoid many of the maintenance expenses and challenges that larger homes present. They are often looking for simple one story homes without stairs to challenge their later years. In 2009 the National Association of Home Builders and the MetLife Mature Market Institute produced a study of Americans age 55 and older which indicated that these folks wanted to retire close to shopping centers and medical facilities and prefer suburban living. The five most asked for home amenities for this group were:

1)      A washer and dryer with the home.

2)      Adequate storage space

3)      Windows that open easily

4)      A master bedroom on the ground floor

5)      A thermostat that is easy to use.

The newest home building projects in Camarillo in the lower price ranges feature high density, solar-powered multi story townhomes or multi story rentals.

Village Commons in Village at the Park –  are 2 or 3 bedroom townhomes priced from $474,990 to $519,990.

AMLI Spanish Hills – 3 story rentals currently priced from $1,796/month to $2,666/month. 

D R Horton is currently developing the Somerset Tract in Village at the Park which will feature 3 models of single family homes from roughly 3,000 sq ft and 3 bedrooms to just under 3,400 sq ft for a 4 bedroom home.

My point is that most of the new townhomes and rentals are multi story adventures in vertical living, while the Somerset Tract is obviously not going to be lower priced housing. If we assume that new housing is pointing the way to new housing trends, I would hazard the statement that current new home developments are not pointing the way for typical First Time Home Buyers, Echo Boomers or aging Baby Boomers.

In Camarillo, younger first time home buyers will probably be renters. Baby Boomers will have difficulty downsizing to new single story homes since there really aren’t many available. Baby Boomers will need to become familiar with older neighborhoods. Older neighborhoods still offer single story homes, yards, and “thermostats that are easy to use.” I would also hazard the statement that Camarillo is similar to most of the other cities of Ventura County in these trends. New, relatively low cost, single story home developments are like the mountain lion and the condor, facing extinction in Ventura County.

Just the way I see it,

Mark Thorngren

BRE Lic #01413932

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author.

Additional blogs found at http://markthorngren.blogspot.com/  or  http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/