Mark’s
Ventura County Market Analysis
1st
Quarter 2014 - (January, February, March)
Camarillo
is
experiencing a suspiciously strong first quarter in home sales. I say
suspiciously because the positive changes we are seeing began a bit slowly in
January and February and took a marked upswing in March. As I’m writing this,
we are in the third week of April and indications are that we are experiencing
a continued increase in sales and new listings. We are shifting gears into a
much stronger market than last quarter. Traditionally, we see increased sales
after April 15 tax time but this year our market started moving ahead in March!
Much of what we read in the news is how sales were
down compared to last year in Feb and March. What these reports fail to emphasize
is that our home inventory is higher than last year and the number of new
listings is above the levels we saw last year. In Camarillo the number of homes
listed each month has remained fairly constant at between 51 and 55 homes for
this first quarter.
What’s interesting is the already strong demand for
homes in Camarillo is building. The total number of homes for sale has dropped
from 161 homes in Jan to 122 homes in March. At the same time the number of
homes with accepted offers has climbed from 73 homes in Jan to 92 homes in
March. The actual number of homes which have made it through escrow and sold
has also risen from 37 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March! That’s a 249% increase in home sales for the
first quarter. Most of this happened in March and early indications are that
April will be a stronger month.
Oxnard
is once again mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The
number of homes for sale has risen from 234 homes in Jan to a peak of 253 homes
in Feb and back to 230 homes in March. The number of homes being listed each
month has remained fairly constant between 88 and 104 homes or at an average of
about 94 homes per month. However, the
number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow has risen from 51 homes
in Dec to 120 homes in Jan, 147 homes in Feb to 186 homes in March! Those numbers
will reflect more strongly next month when these homes close escrow and become
sold numbers. As it is, home sales rose from 81 homes in Jan to 106 homes in
March, for a 31% increase in home sales. Oxnard is on the move.
Ventura
has
market numbers that follow between Camarillo on the low side and Oxnard on the
high side. It also reflects a gradual gathering of demand in Jan and Feb and a
defined spike in sales for March. Average home inventory has remained between
162 to 172 homes. The average number of
homes coming to market is also fairly constant at a rough average of 65 homes
per month. What is exciting is that like
Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes with accepted offers going into
escrow, has risen from 57 homes last Dec to 75 homes in Jan, then 82 homes in
Feb and now bouncing up in March all the way to 107 homes! Again, we will see
these numbers next month as a big jump in closed sales. Closed sales have risen from 53 homes in Jan,
to 72 homes in March, for a 36% increase in home sales during the first
quarter.
Santa
Paula and Fillmore have seen very little change in total
home inventories. Santa Paula has
averaged about 40 homes on the market at any given time, while Fillmore
averages 20 homes. Unlike the other
towns just discussed, we have seen Santa Paula increase the total number
of listings going into escrow for Jan
and Feb but falling a bit in March. Which means the April sold numbers will
suffer. Average sold numbers for the 1st quarter did rise from 13 homes in Jan,
spiking all the way up to 23 homes in March. The West County spike in March
sales was not shared by Fillmore where home sales have actually fallen a bit
from 10 in Jan, to 8 in Feb and 6 in March.
Moorpark
saw
inventory increase from 52 homes in Jan to 61 homes in Feb and hold fairly
steady at about 58 homes in March. New listings are holding fairly steady at
between 20 and 25 homes per month with no obvious trend at this time. The
number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in March to 37
homes, up from an average 22 homes for Jan and Feb. Total closed sales has
trended downward from 39 homes in Dec to 26 homes in Jan, to 21 homes in Feb
and now 17 homes for March. I would expect these numbers to jump up when the 37
accepted offers for March become closings in April.
Since the supply of monthly new home listings
has stagnated, but demand (as
shown by the large number of accepted offers) is high… I think it is safe to
say that home prices will continue to rise in Moorpark.
Often, new home construction will add to supply but
sell for a premium. Ivy Lane is one of the newer home developments in Moorpark
with a sales office that opened March 1 and has already sold out it’s first
phase of homes. Some may dispute my characterization of these homes, but they
are basically comfortable duplexes. Homes are priced from 430K for 3 bedrooms
and 1600 sq ft to 470K for 4 bedrooms and 2000 sq ft. Considering most 1500 sq ft homes are selling
for over 450K and may have been built in the 1960’s, Ivy Lane homes are worth
serious consideration.
Simi
Valley & Wood Ranch are making a steady recovery back
to 2014’s peak inventory of 196 homes last October. Inventory fell back to a
low of 158 homes in Dec. Then the market shifted once again. Jan saw the
beginning of a steady improvement in inventory to 163 homes. Feb jumped to 218
homes and March to 276 homes! Monthly
increases in homes coming to market have been substantial. We had 49 homes come
to market last Dec, 85 in Jan, 111 in Feb and 139 homes in March!
Accepted offers have risen from 80 in Dec, to 99 in
Jan, to 125 in Feb and 157 in March! These homes are in escrow and will need
another month to reflect as sold homes. Amazingly, with such strong numbers,
the actual number of homes sold for Jan - 72 - was down from the 107 sold in
Dec. Feb was even worse with only 53 homes sold. Finally, this last month the
numbers jumped back up to 101 homes sold for March. Seeing what is now in the
pipeline, I think we can count on much better home sale numbers for April.
Thousand
Oaks and Newbury Park saw their SFD (single family
detached) market grow from 143 homes
in Jan to 183 homes in Feb and again to 185 homes in March. We have not seen
this large of an inventory of SFD since Aug of last year when we had 186 homes
on the market. The number of all types of homes listed monthly has steadily
increased from 32 last Dec to 77 in Jan, to 88 in Feb and finally shot up to
110 homes last month!
Homes going under contract have climbed a bit more
gradually from 101 homes in Jan, to 121 homes in Feb, and to 133 homes in
March. Actual home sales have been a bit more erratic, falling from 99 homes
sold in Dec, to 80 in Jan, falling again to 67 homes in Feb. Then again last
month sales bounced back to 88 homes sold for March! April numbers should be
very good.
Agoura
Hills & Oak
Park have had a more gradual market
recovery this last quarter. Total market inventory has remained flat at between
92 and 97 homes. The number of homes coming to market during each month has
bounced between 30 and 40 homes with no real change. The most interesting trend
is in the number of homes which have recently gone into escrow, up from 44 in
Jan, to 55 in Feb and 64 in March. That should make a nice increase in the
number of sold properties for April. Currently, the number of homes sold has
risen from 25 in Jan to 38 in March. This market is close to where it had
peaked last October when 103 homes were on the market and 37 homes sold during
the month.
Westlake
Village & Lake Sherwood have not yet completely
regained the market strength that they had last October. It is true that the
number of homes for sale has climbed back from 96 homes in Jan, to 113 in Feb,
and 122 in March. This trend is fast approaching last Octobers’ peak, when 131
homes were on the market.
During the month of Oct 2013, we had 43 homes come
to market. This March we had 50 homes come to market. Last Oct we had 42 homes
sell, while this March gave us 31 home sales. If I was a betting man, I’d say this market
should probably exceed last years’ Oct peak within the next quarter. I think that forecast actually applies to the
whole of Ventura County.
Mark
Thorngren
