Mark’s
Ventura County Market Analysis – 2nd Quarter 2013
April
- May - June
This month I’ve added Santa Paula, Fillmore,
Bardsdale & Piru to this monthly market snapshot. Now we truly have a
comprehensive look at Ventura County’s Real Estate Market. Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are also included
as part of the Conejo Valley even though they are actually in Los Angeles
County.
So what’s going on? Our market is healing. Home
inventory is still low but for the last 3 months it has been gradually growing.
Prices continue to skyrocket in the county at rates we haven’t seen since 2006.
Interest rates are continuing a 6 week trend of upward motion and topped 4% at
the end of June for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.
Distressed sales which include short sales,
foreclosures and bankruptcy sales are now the exception rather than the rule.
They are still a significant part of the local market but they continue to
shrink in the percentage of our market that they represent. That’s a good thing.
Here is a look at some of the specific market trends
for Ventura County:
Camarillo
Total inventory since April has risen from a low of
80 single family detached (SFD) homes to 125 homes at the end of June. That’s a
very encouraging trend. The number of properties which came to market in the
month of April was 39, May - 43 and now in June - 58. As prices increase, more
folks will be able to refinance or sell at a profit, so as long as prices
continue to rise, I would predict inventory to continue rising as well.
Condos went from 9 homes to 17 and back to 11 homes
for sale, with 10 to 15 homes selling each month, so no major trend changes
here.
Our local newspaper – “The Acorn” reported this week
that 2 new apartment complexes and 1 large Townhome project are planned for the
Springville Exit area (West edge of town) as part of a city's "Springville Specific Plan" . "Rancho Associates of Beverly Hills, plans to construct 130 three and four bedroom condos. About 26 condos are designated as affordable housing for seniors. The Springville Specific Plan will develop 95 acres of former farmland into an additional 384 unit apartment complex behind the Hampton Inn and Suites. A second apartment complex will contain 163 units which back up to the 101. Construction for all three projects is to begin during the summer of 2014.
Oxnard
Oxnard is the largest town in Ventura County so it
has an advantage to us in magnifying any strong trends. It shows us more
clearly what is happening than some of the smaller towns. Total inventory has
risen from April’s 104 SFD homes to 149 homes by the end of June. The month of
April saw 40 homes come to market in Oxnard, followed by 49 in May and 67 in
June. That is a nice trend for Buyers and Sellers. Average time on the market
before selling has been hovering around 70 to 75 days.
The condo market has remained flat at between 25 and
35 homes coming to market each month and maybe 25 to 35 actually selling. Inventory
has hovered between 50 and 60 homes each month.
New homes continue to be built at “Riverpark” and
“The Hideaway” but no word on the 2nd phase of “Port 121” in the
Seabridge Community.
Ventura
(San Buenaventura)
The market in Ventura is more typical of the West
County. We are seeing Oxnard trends but smaller numbers. Total SFD home
inventory rose from 79 homes in April to 97 at the end of June. April saw 32 homes come to market, May saw 34
and April rose to 51 homes! Slowly but surely this market is improving. The
number of SFD homes which have come to market since January and not sold
usually increases from month to month. This is usually a condition of sale
price or home condition. In Ventura this number has actually shrunk from 74
homes in April to 59 homes in June. That’s a strong market.
Condo inventory has risen from 11 homes to 18 at the
end of June. 5 or 10 condos and townhomes come to market each month and sell
about as fast as they come to market.
Moorpark
Home inventory in Moorpark has not seen any
significant growth over the last quarter. Total inventory has remained between
37 and 41 SFD homes and less than 8 condos for the same time frame. An average
of 25 homes of both types come to market each month. That doesn’t mean it is a weak market.
Actually, most of the home inventory has turned over during that 3 month period. This is a small but healthy market.
The “Highland Development” continues to grow with a
recent announcement of a new tract under construction. More to come on that.
Simi
Valley
Ventura and Simi Valley are very similar in market
numbers with Simi Valley just edging out Ventura with market inventory growth
from an identical 79 SFD homes in April,
to a nice growth spurt of 97
homes in May and finally 114 homes vs 97 in Ventura for June. The number of SFD
homes coming to market each month has remained steady at roughly 50 to 60
homes. As in Moorpark, these homes are selling as fast as they come to market
with an average 90 homes selling each month.
Just shy of 20 condos come to market each month and
usually sell as fast as they list.
A new home development has been approved according
to one of my neighborhood experts for the South edge of town. I need to find
out more about this, but I’m told it will be pretty large and require changes
to many of the area streets.
Thousand
Oaks & Newbury Park
Some of the strongest inventory growth in the county
has been happening in the Conejo Valley – specifically TO and Newbury Park.
April saw 118 Single Family Detached homes on the market. This grew to 135
homes in May and 178 homes by the end of June! The number of homes actually
selling has remained fairly constant 98 and 103 homes per month. However, the
number of homes which came to market during the month grew from 67 homes in
April, to a slightly higher 72 homes in April and then rocketed up to 107 homes
by the end of June.
Obviously, home owners are seeing prices that are
now approaching a point where they have the freedom to either refinance their
homes or sell without taking a loss. I predict more growth in the 3rd
quarter for these cities. The average time on the market for these homes is
just over 2 months. Considering that average home prices are some of the
highest in the county – this should have a very positive effect on their local
economy.
Westlake
Village & Agoura Hills
Smaller than TO and Newbury Park in market size, but
mighty nonetheless, Westlake Village and Agoura Hills have seen steady growth
in their numbers. April saw an inventory of 92 homes which grew to 103 homes in
May and a bit more to 106 homes in June. We saw the number of homes coming to
market each month – grow from 26 homes in April to 37 homes in June. We have
seen between 35 and 40 homes sell each month in these communities – basically
homes are selling as fast as they come to market. The average sale time has
dropped from 151 days to 72 days. That’s a pretty hot market for these two
smaller communities.
This is one market where the market for condos and
townhomes is growing. The condo inventory grew from 12 homes in April to 16 in
May and on up to 30 by the end of June. More condos are coming to market each
month now as well – going from 6 to 30 in the same quarter. Average sale time
for a condo here is between 2 and 2 ½ months.
Santa
Paula and Fillmore
These two towns will be covered in greater detail
next month when I have enough data to see trends. The two months information I
have currently collected show our smallest markets but growing just the same,
especially in Santa Paula where inventory has grown from 17 homes to 27 in 1
month. Fillmore has grown from 10 SFD homes to 17 in the same time frame.
The condo markets for these 2 towns is very small with
less than half a dozen properties for sale in either town. Those that do come
to market sell very quickly.
Both of these communities have announced new home
developments for the very near future or are actively selling in new home
communities like the “Bridges” in Fillmore.
Summary
Wow! Somebody just threw another light switch in
Ventura County.
Inventory is
slowly increasing across the county as prices reach levels high enough to allow sellers to make a profit. Competition continues to be intense between home buyers and investors. Multiple offers and above list price offers are driving the market upwards. It's not unusual to receive 10 or 20 offers for one nicely priced home in a good area.
More new construction is happening throughout the
county and I would expect that we will sadly wave good bye to many more acres
of prime farmland in the next few years. We lose about a thousand acres a
year. Still as prices rise, current
owners may be able to find some relief with their ability to refinance into
newer, lower interest rate loans if they hurry.
The real unknown is what levels interest rates may reach in the coming months. The recent rate hikes have been significant even with encouraging announcements from the Fed, the US Banking System seems intent on making more profit from higher rate mortgages this year.
Bottom line - Sellers are doing very well. Buyers will do well if they are successful in finding and snagging a home yet this year, but future months will probably see higher prices and mortgage interest rates. The "Good Ole Days" for buyers in Ventura County are gone for good.
Mark Thorngren
Movewest Realty -
(805) 443-3366
Dre Lic
#01413932 - Like me at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor
