3rd Quarter 2013 Ventura County Market Analysis

   3^rd Quarter 2013 Ventura County Market Analysis

(July, August September) 

Camarillo has seen its’ market shrink significantly this quarter. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 163 homes in July to 130 homes in September. On a month by month basis we saw the number of homes that came to market drop from 72 single family homes for July to 52 homes in August and finally 28 homes for the month of September. Yikes! Wrong direction!

The number of actual sales dropped from 110 homes in July to 102 homes in August and dropped again to 79 homes in September. This may indicate buyers are a little tired of rising home prices and higher mortgage interest rates which have increased by a point since January.

As home prices have risen (up 15% – 20% over the last twelve months depending on who you choose to quote) the lower priced condo and townhome markets have gotten more popular. The number of townhome properties coming to market has been hovering around 10 homes each month. Also, the average length of time required to sell these condos and townhomes has been dropping from the beginning of the quarter at 71 days in July to 53 days in August and finally 48 days in September. This trend shows fairly strong buyer demand.

Nicer townhome prices now overlap the sale prices of low end single family homes. This puts buyers into the quandry of  “Do I buy a nice townhome with a $$$ Home Owners Association Fee or do I buy a fixer upper single family home that needs a lot of work, but which might not have an HOA.”   Tough choices.  

Oxnard has had a fairly constant number of properties for sale compared to Camarillo. There were 144 single family detached (SFD) homes on the market in July. Then came a big jump up to 164 homes in August which fell back almost exactly to where it had been before at 143 homes in September. The number of new listings coming to market each month has been relatively constant, ranging from 79 to 86 homes.

The number of properties which have sold each month has increased from 110 homes in July to 125 homes in September. So… where Camarillos’ market has diminished in the last 3 months, Oxnards’ market has been stronger with a big spike in August, returning close to July’s numbers in September.

Ventura is experiencing a steady upward trend in its’ housing inventory. The total inventory of SFD and Condos has grown from 133 homes in July to 140 homes in August and finally 150 homes in September. Most of that increase came from the Single Family Detached (SFD) inventory which rose from 104 homes in July to 113 homes in August and 127 homes in September.

There are a few signs of weakness however, in the increasing length of time it takes to sell a home. The average time to sell an SFD has risen from 54 days to 68 days while condos which used to sell in 36 days, now require an average 51 days to close.

The total number of homes which sold in July was 96 and this number dropped to 78 homes in August and 77 homes in September. So Ventura has more homes coming to market each month but the actual number of homes selling each month has dropped. If this trend were to continue, I would expect to see home prices begin to moderate or soften a bit from the huge monthly increases in home prices that we saw earlier this year.

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen a very gradual increase in their home inventories (like Ventura).  In Santa Paula 33 homes were available in July, 35 homes in August and 42 homes in September.

 The number of SFD home sales rose from 11 homes sold in July, peaked in August with 18 homes sold, then dropped back to 14 homes sold in September.  Fillmore home sales were 10 homes, 15 homes and back to 10 homes in September. Fillmore is often a smaller carbon copy to Santa Paula’s market. This quarter at least, their inventories followed Ventura’s trend, while the number of their home sales followed Oxnard’s trend.  

Moorpark has seen market changes very similar to Oxnard with total home inventory increasing from 49 homes in July, spiking up to 66 homes in August and retracing a bit to 60 homes in September.

The number of home sales has dropped overall from 39 homes in July, with a spike in August to 46 homes and then falling back to 32 homes for September. Also, the time it takes to sell a SFD home has risen during these three months from 44 days in July, to 54 days in August and again to 78 days in September. Buyers here may be responding to the higher interest rates and higher home prices.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are still seeing an uptrend in the number of homes for sale. The SFD market has seen its’ inventory climb from 117 homes in July, to 142 homes in August and a slight consolidation back to 138 homes in September.

There were 135 home sales for July, a nice upward spike to 148 homes in August and then a big drop to 120 homes in September. Sound familiar? Also, the length of time it takes to sell a SFD home has basically doubled from Julys’ 37 days to 70 days in September.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park have seen their market inventory in Single Family Detached homes (SFD) shrink from 200 homes in July to 186 homes in August and on down to 163 homes in September. This is in stark contrast to the second quarter where the inventory grew from 118 homes in April to 178 homes in June.

Townhome and condo inventory has remained fairly stable at between 33 to 35 homes available each month this quarter.

It appears that the home inventory grew rapidly from Januarys’ 102 homes – peaked in July with 235 homes and is shrinking a bit for the early Fall. I think it is safe to say this is typical of most of the rest of Ventura County as well.

Actual home sales rose from 121 homes in June to140 homes in July. August saw sales spike back downward to 120 homes and bounce back up to 136 homes in September. This is a stronger sales market than most of the other towns in West Ventura County, confirmed with fairly consistent sale times of roughly 55 to 65 Days On Market (DOM).

Westlake Village & Agoura Hills is a slightly smaller market than TO and Newbury Park with a home inventory which has grown from 92 homes(vs 136 for TO/NP) at the beginning of the 2^nd quarter to 153 homes (vs 197 for TO/NP) at the end of the 3^rd quarter.  That is a 62 home increase in inventory in 6 months – or roughly an increase of 10 homes per month. That’s a solid achievement.

Sales continued to increase through July with 54 homes selling, then 64 homes in August. September saw what I’m hoping is just a temporary spike down to 46 homes sold. DOM has risen from July’s 73 days to September’s 89 days for SFD homes. Overall I’d say that Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are fairly strong markets, even allowing for the September drop in sales.

Summary  It appears that the major trend in our Ventura County markets is a gradual decrease in the size of our home inventory, with the number of home sales increasing through August. Camarillo’s weak market being one major exception and Westlake/Agoura Hills being a stronger market exception. September saw a decrease in the number of home sales in most local markets. This may be a reflection of weak buyer demand due to high home prices, higher mortgage interest rates or maybe just the natural slowing we often see when summer is over and families get ready to send kids to school again.

I’m not ready to get alarmed by last months weaker trends, but I do think what happens in the next several months will be crucial in determining what direction our market is actually moving. Just the way I see it.

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     www.markthorngren.com  BRE#01413932                                                                                                                                     Like me on facebook at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor

Ventura County Market Analysis for August 2013

Camarillo has seen its’ inventory grow from 136 homes in June to 163 Homes by the end of July and then to 168 homes by the end of August. Not much change in the last month but still a small increase in total inventory.  The number of homes that came on the market for August was down by about 25% from 82 homes to 61 homes. The total number of homes sold was down slightly from 110 to 102 homes. Overall I’d say Camarillo has maintained most of  its’ market strength in most categories except for fewer sellers in August.  

Oxnard has a bit larger market inventory than Camarillo with inventory increasing from 197 homes in June to 209 in July to 225 in August! The number of homes which came to market stayed fairly constant at 79 in August. The number of homes which went under contract increased from 149 in July to 161 in August which is a very nice trend. Sales have remained fairly constant between 110 and 120 homes per month over the last 3 months which interestingly enough is very close to Camarillo’s sales numbers.

Ventura is experiencing steady inventory growth with 115 homes on the market in June, 133 in July and 140 in August. However, the number of homes that have gone into escrow has slowly decreased from a high of 111 homes in June to 95 homes in August. The number of homes sold during each month has decreased slightly as well from 94 and 96 home in June and July to just 78 homes sold in August. Maybe Ventura’s buyers are taking a little break.

Santa Paula and Fillmore are proportionately smaller markets than most others in Ventura County. Santa Paula averages just over 30 homes for sale per month, while Fillmore stays around 15 to 20 homes each month. Santa Paula saw a jump in sales in August from an average of 10 homes per month in June and July to 22 homes in August. Likewise, Fillmore saw an increase from an average of about 10 homes sold in June and again in July, to 15 homes sold in August.  We don’t see big numbers with these towns, but they are headed in the right direction.

Moorpark has seen a strong growth in inventory over the last 3 months. With just 44 homes on the market in June, increasing slightly to 49 homes in July and then jumping up to 66 homes in August. That’s close to a 30% jump in inventory in the last month. Unfortunately, the number of homes sold has remained fairly constant at between 40 to 45 homes over the last 3 months. Also, the number of homes going into escrow took a dive from 61 homes in July to 37 homes in August. Again, it appears that buyers took a little break in August.  

Simi Valley and Wood Ranch have seen steady growth in home inventory from 133 homes in June to 140 homes in July and 156 homes in August. That was a pretty nice jump in August which our buyers can surely use. Like many other towns in Ventura County, Simi Valley and Wood Ranch are also experiencing a decrease in the number of homes going into escrow, down from a high of 177 homes in June, to 153 homes in July, and finally 142 homes in August. Just to confuse the issue, the actual number of homes sold has steadily increased from 116 homes in June, to 135 homes in July, to 148 homes in August. Could it be possible that there have been a number of homes in escrow for more than 30 days which are finally closing? That might indicate that many of these homes were distressed sales which are finally resolving themselves. (Distressed sales like short sales, foreclosures or bankruptcy sales typically have longer escrow periods than normal sales).  With the number of homes selling (148) nearly matching the number of homes which came to market in August(156), this is a strong market.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw large increases in all our market categories from June to July, but reversing across the board in August - except for the number of homes going into escrow in August. This should mean we will see an increase in the number of total sales in September over previous months. Sales bounced from 120 homes in June to 140 in homes in July, and back to 120 homes again in August. The number of homes going into escrow did the reverse by dipping from 171 homes in June, to a low of 158 homes in July, then rebounding to 182 homes in August. Go figure. Overall I’d say this market is ratcheting its’ way upwards and I would guess we’ll see stronger numbers for them this Fall.

Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are experiencing a bit larger increase in inventory than TO and Newbury Park, with the number of homes for sale growing from 136 homes in June to 139 homes in July and 152 homes in August. The number of homes coming to market has ranged between 48 and 57 homes each month while the number of homes sold has risen from 54 homes each in June and July to 64 homes in August. That’s roughly a 3 month inventory of homes but with a larger number of homes selling each month (64 in Aug) than coming to market (48 in Aug). Again with more homes coming to market each month and more homes selling each month, this market is healing quickly.

In summary, it appears to me that we are seeing steady improvement in our Ventura County Market. More homes are coming into each of the inventories and total sales are increasing in most cases. It’s easy to read more into these numbers than we should, since we are just examining the last three months, however compared to last January’s numbers, the trends are very clear. Our market is strengthening.

Just the way I see it.

Mark Thorngren

Movewest Realty  -  Mark@movewest.com  -  www.facebook.com/MarkThorngrenRealtor

BRE Lic. #01413932  -  (805)443-3366  -  www.markthorngren.com

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis - 2nd Quarter 2013 April - May - June

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis – 2^nd Quarter 2013

April - May - June

This month I’ve added Santa Paula, Fillmore, Bardsdale & Piru to this monthly market snapshot. Now we truly have a comprehensive look at Ventura County’s Real Estate Market.  Westlake Village and Agoura Hills are also included as part of the Conejo Valley even though they are actually in Los Angeles County.

So what’s going on? Our market is healing. Home inventory is still low but for the last 3 months it has been gradually growing. Prices continue to skyrocket in the county at rates we haven’t seen since 2006. Interest rates are continuing a 6 week trend of upward motion and topped 4% at the end of June for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage.

Distressed sales which include short sales, foreclosures and bankruptcy sales are now the exception rather than the rule. They are still a significant part of the local market but they continue to shrink in the percentage of our market that they represent.  That’s a good thing.

Here is a look at some of the specific market trends for Ventura County:

 

Camarillo

Total inventory since April has risen from a low of 80 single family detached (SFD) homes to 125 homes at the end of June. That’s a very encouraging trend. The number of properties which came to market in the month of April was 39, May - 43 and now in June - 58. As prices increase, more folks will be able to refinance or sell at a profit, so as long as prices continue to rise, I would predict inventory to continue rising as well.

Condos went from 9 homes to 17 and back to 11 homes for sale, with 10 to 15 homes selling each month, so no major trend changes here.

Our local newspaper – “The Acorn” reported this week that 2 new apartment complexes and 1 large Townhome project are planned for the Springville Exit area (West edge of town) as part of a city's "Springville Specific Plan" . "Rancho Associates of Beverly Hills, plans to construct 130 three and four bedroom condos. About 26 condos are designated as affordable housing for seniors. The Springville Specific Plan will develop 95 acres of former farmland into an additional 384 unit apartment complex behind the Hampton Inn and Suites. A second apartment complex will contain 163 units which back up to the 101. Construction for all three projects is to begin during the summer of 2014. 

 

 

Oxnard

Oxnard is the largest town in Ventura County so it has an advantage to us in magnifying any strong trends. It shows us more clearly what is happening than some of the smaller towns. Total inventory has risen from April’s 104 SFD homes to 149 homes by the end of June. The month of April saw 40 homes come to market in Oxnard, followed by 49 in May and 67 in June. That is a nice trend for Buyers and Sellers. Average time on the market before selling has been hovering around 70 to 75 days. 

The condo market has remained flat at between 25 and 35 homes coming to market each month and maybe 25 to 35 actually selling. Inventory has hovered between 50 and 60 homes each month.

New homes continue to be built at “Riverpark” and “The Hideaway” but no word on the 2^nd phase of “Port 121” in the Seabridge Community.

 

Ventura (San Buenaventura)

The market in Ventura is more typical of the West County. We are seeing Oxnard trends but smaller numbers. Total SFD home inventory rose from 79 homes in April to 97 at the end of June.  April saw 32 homes come to market, May saw 34 and April rose to 51 homes! Slowly but surely this market is improving. The number of SFD homes which have come to market since January and not sold usually increases from month to month. This is usually a condition of sale price or home condition. In Ventura this number has actually shrunk from 74 homes in April to 59 homes in June. That’s a strong market.

Condo inventory has risen from 11 homes to 18 at the end of June. 5 or 10 condos and townhomes come to market each month and sell about as fast as they come to market.

 

Moorpark

Home inventory in Moorpark has not seen any significant growth over the last quarter. Total inventory has remained between 37 and 41 SFD homes and less than 8 condos for the same time frame. An average of 25 homes of both types come to market each month.  That doesn’t mean it is a weak market. Actually, most of the home inventory has turned over during that  3 month period.  This is a small but healthy market. 

The “Highland Development” continues to grow with a recent announcement of a new tract under construction. More to come on that.

 

Simi Valley

Ventura and Simi Valley are very similar in market numbers with Simi Valley just edging out Ventura with market inventory growth from an identical 79 SFD homes in April,  to a nice growth spurt of  97 homes in May and finally 114 homes vs 97 in Ventura for June. The number of SFD homes coming to market each month has remained steady at roughly 50 to 60 homes. As in Moorpark, these homes are selling as fast as they come to market with an average 90 homes selling each month.

Just shy of 20 condos come to market each month and usually sell as fast as they list.

A new home development has been approved according to one of my neighborhood experts for the South edge of town. I need to find out more about this, but I’m told it will be pretty large and require changes to many of the area streets.

 

Thousand Oaks & Newbury Park

Some of the strongest inventory growth in the county has been happening in the Conejo Valley – specifically TO and Newbury Park. April saw 118 Single Family Detached homes on the market. This grew to 135 homes in May and 178 homes by the end of June! The number of homes actually selling has remained fairly constant 98 and 103 homes per month. However, the number of homes which came to market during the month grew from 67 homes in April, to a slightly higher 72 homes in April and then rocketed up to 107 homes by the end of June.

Obviously, home owners are seeing prices that are now approaching a point where they have the freedom to either refinance their homes or sell without taking a loss. I predict more growth in the 3^rd quarter for these cities. The average time on the market for these homes is just over 2 months. Considering that average home prices are some of the highest in the county – this should have a very positive effect on their local economy.

 

Westlake Village & Agoura Hills

Smaller than TO and Newbury Park in market size, but mighty nonetheless, Westlake Village and Agoura Hills have seen steady growth in their numbers. April saw an inventory of 92 homes which grew to 103 homes in May and a bit more to 106 homes in June. We saw the number of homes coming to market each month – grow from 26 homes in April to 37 homes in June. We have seen between 35 and 40 homes sell each month in these communities – basically homes are selling as fast as they come to market. The average sale time has dropped from 151 days to 72 days. That’s a pretty hot market for these two smaller communities.

This is one market where the market for condos and townhomes is growing. The condo inventory grew from 12 homes in April to 16 in May and on up to 30 by the end of June. More condos are coming to market each month now as well – going from 6 to 30 in the same quarter. Average sale time for a condo here is between 2 and 2 ½ months.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore

These two towns will be covered in greater detail next month when I have enough data to see trends. The two months information I have currently collected show our smallest markets but growing just the same, especially in Santa Paula where inventory has grown from 17 homes to 27 in 1 month. Fillmore has grown from 10 SFD homes to 17 in the same time frame.

The condo markets for these 2 towns is very small with less than half a dozen properties for sale in either town. Those that do come to market sell very quickly.

Both of these communities have announced new home developments for the very near future or are actively selling in new home communities like the “Bridges” in Fillmore. 

Summary

Wow! Somebody just threw another light switch in Ventura County. 

Inventory is slowly increasing across the county as prices reach levels high enough to allow sellers to make a profit.  Competition continues to be intense between home buyers and investors. Multiple offers and above list price offers are driving the market upwards. It's not unusual to receive 10 or 20 offers for one nicely priced home in a good area.  

More new construction is happening throughout the county and I would expect that we will sadly wave good bye to many more acres of prime farmland in the next few years. We lose about a thousand acres a year.  Still as prices rise, current owners may be able to find some relief with their ability to refinance into newer, lower interest rate loans if they hurry.

The real unknown is what levels interest rates may reach in the coming months. The recent rate hikes have been significant even with encouraging announcements from the Fed, the US Banking System seems intent on making more profit from higher rate mortgages this year.

Bottom line - Sellers are doing very well. Buyers will do well if they are successful in finding and snagging a home yet this year, but future months will probably see higher prices and mortgage interest rates. The "Good Ole Days" for buyers in Ventura County are gone for good. 

Mark Thorngren                    Movewest Realty  -  (805) 443-3366

Dre Lic #01413932  -  Like me at www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor

As Prices Rise - Buyers Must Be More Wise

Ventura County’s Home Market For June

 

Just as we predicted in January, home prices are rising quickly. We have been hoping for a larger inventory of homes in order to help our buyers, but this is just not happening in much of Ventura County.  Across the USA, home prices are still an average 25 percent lower than at the height of the market in 2007/2008.  This means there are still a large number of people who are upside down on their home values and cannot afford to put their homes on the market quite yet. As a result we simply do not have enough homes to show our prospective home buyers.  

Low inventory and strong demand are fueling double digit price increases. In various California markets we have seen greater than 20 percent price increases over the previous 12 months. According to MLS Listings Incorporated, home prices rose 47 percent in Oakland and 45 percent in Santa Barbara from April’12 to April’13. The Santa Clara County – better known as Silicon Valley -  has seen the median single family home price rise to $795,000. This is near the all time peak of $850,000 set just before the crash.  

Ventura County, especially East Ventura County has experienced very strong growth with a bit more inventory coming to market than earlier this year.  Once a home gets to market, our buyers have to compete with multiple offers from other buyers and investors. Typically we have a 2 or 3 day response time to find a new home, view it, and write an offer before an offer is picked and accepted by the Sellers. Our Current market resembles the 2006 market where people were writing offers on the hood of their car after viewing a home.  

Interest rates have now begun to trend upwards and rose  for the third week in a row. Three weeks ago, they rose from 3.42 to 3.51 for a 30 year fixed. Then the rate went to 3.59 for the week ending May 23rd. We don’t see any near term trend changes here. Home prices are going up and that is inflationary by itself, but our national economy is also improving. A few more jobs and an improving stock market are also contributing to housing demand.  

Just as an aside, your family credit history has a huge impact on your ability to get a home loan. Most people don’t spend enough time reviewing their records for mistakes or for possible identity theft issues. Credit accuracy is a huge concern, and while better than a few years ago, Buyers often find discrepancies on their reports which need to be corrected before the loan process begins. You won’t have time to do this once an offer is on the table competing for the Sellers approval.

The only Federally Sanctioned free credit reporting website is www.AnnualCreditReport.com .  Here you can get a free copy of your report from each of the three major credit reporting agencies each year. According to FindLaw  A Thomson Reuters Business www.FindLaw.com -

22 percent of Americans have never even seen their credit report!  23 percent of 1,000 Americans surveyed said they have had a problem with their credit report – Including incorrect or outdated credit history or incorrect personal information. There were also problems reported with identity theft, and information mixed up with another consumers file! 

Do not overreach yourself to purchase your home. If you are pre-approved for $400,000, don’t just look at $400,000 homes!  If you are competing for a home, you must expect the winning offer will often be at or above the asking price. Your lender will not loan for more than the appraised value of a home. If you are tapped out at $400,000 and the appraised value came in at $390,000 for the home in our example above, you must make up the $10,000 difference between the appraised value and your winning offer with cash.  

Many times in our market the winning offer is above list price and made by an individual who is paying cash anyway.Yes, you can negotiate the difference with the Seller, but the Seller usually just accepts the next best offer. My point is, don’t put yourself in a position where you cannot afford to be the winning offer. Find a home for less. 

Find a home for less. Lower your immediate expectations and consider a less expensive home. Find a home priced low enough that your cash reserves cover the downpayment/good faith deposit, closing costs, home inspection and a little more for you to beat the competition. If you can do all that and be happy with your home of choice, you greatly increase your chances of successfully competing in this Seller’s market. Whatever home you find in Ventura County today will probably be selling for 10 to 20 percent more in within the next six months to a year.  

So what does all this mean if you want to buy a home in Ventura County? Buyers must do more preparation when they are ready to go shopping. Check your credit history, get pre-approved with your lender for an amount that will allow you to subsist, should you be successful with your offer.  Prepare yourself emotionally and financially. Don’t be greedy – be smart.

 

You can win.

Mark Thorngren

 

Like me on facebook at: www.facebook.com/markthorngrenrealtor and check out the latest videos on our national markets and newest mortgage trends. Updated weekly. 

DRE Lic. #01413932

Turning the Corner in Ventura County

 

 

Hello Folks, 

We may have turned the corner in Ventura County.  This is the first month I have seen an across the board increase in the total number of properties that have come to market during the past month!  The total number of properties for sale has increased in most towns as well. Of the ten city markets I track, I only saw Agoura Hills and Westlake Village a bit low on the number of properties for sale. However they are experiencing strong sales with 61 homes sold in April compared to 44 in March. This may mean that their market is so hot that they cannot maintain their inventory – it sells as soon as it comes on the market! 

January 2013 was a better month than December 2012. February continued the trend upwards but March took kind of a breather with weak showings in most of the numbers I track. Not unusual from my experience as people tighten their belts to pay taxes in April. There was some stock market volatility during the early months of this year as well. I don’t pretend to be able to separate cause and effect on our local real estate market, but the numbers for April are very encouraging with numbers bouncing back from March and in most cases exceeding the numbers we saw earlier in February.  

Oxnard and Port Hueneme have seen strong, steady improvement in their markets this last month with numbers returning to the level of January’s sales after dipping down in Feb and March. The number of properties that sold in January were 92 vs April’s 138!  The number of properties for sale are back up to 165 homes  -  with 74 of those homes coming to market just last month. 138 homes actually sold last month, so it’s easy to see there is strong demand – nearly twice as many homes sold as came new to the market last month. Guess what that is going to do to prices in Oxnard and Port Hueneme?! We are going to see some very strong home prices as this year continues to build. 

Camarillo’s market has performed in similar fashion to Oxnard and Port Hueneme but on a much smaller scale. The current inventory numbers are back to January’s levels but properties sold are up from 42 homes sold in January to 81 for April!  Again, like Oxnard and Port Hueneme, monthly sales doubled from the start of the year. 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park have seen the number of homes on the market increase from 102 in January to 133 in April. In the 31 days of January we had 53 homes come to market. In the 30 days of April we saw 79 homes come to market. The number of homes which actually sold in January was 66, almost doubling to 125 homes in April. These are great numbers! 

Moorpark has seen it’s inventory slowly increase from January’s 28 homes to April’s 38 homes on the market. In January there were 9 homes that came to market during the month, which has increased to 21 homes in the month of April. Demand has remained surprisingly flat with 28 homes actually selling in January compared to 30 homes in April.  

Simi Valley and Wood Ranch have seen some major market improvements despite the same dips in the market for February and March that everone else experienced. We had 46 homes come to market in January and 60 homes come to market in April. 96 homes sold in January and 113 homes sold this last April.

Interestingly, we had 152 homes go into escrow in January and 175 homes in April so obviously there is a bit higher demand for homes in this market than Moorpark. 

Ventura has had the biggest struggle regaining it’s market inventory. Inventory has still not recovered from February and March’s dip. There are currently 90 homes available in Ventura compared to 168 last January. April saw 38 homes come to market compared to 88 in January. Still the demand appears to be pretty constant with 84 homes selling last January and 81 homes in April.

 

With roughly half as many homes coming to market each month as selling each month – demand is strong and price increases will continue. Once prices reach the level where folks can afford to sell their homes without taking a loss, I think we will see many more homes coming to market in Ventura. That time is rapidly approaching.  

Take care, 

Mark Thorngren

Ventura County Market Trends for 2013

Ventura County Market Analysis


Our Ventura County Market is marching in a very new direction for 2013. Last year we saw home prices beginning to edge up and home inventories dry up. Concerns about the world- wide economy, our national economy, the presidential election, the “Fiscal Cliff” and even the end of the world Mayan Calendar have had everyone second guessing our local real estate market.

Apparently our world did not end and people are still buying and selling real estate. Who knew Mayans could be such practical jokers?

Prices are still low but they are moving upwards at what I predict will be an accelerating pace. There has been data analysis of our market by San Diego based “DataQuick” which stated the median county home prices rose by about 7.5% last year and roughly 16.7% in Los Angeles. The median home sale price in Ventura County rose from $335,000 to $360,000. (See Ventura County Star – 11/14/2012)

One of the interesting sidelights of this new market is that more expensive homes appear to be selling again as well. In Ventura County, 55 homes sold for more than $800,000 in the month of October – up 52.6 % from a year ago!

In January of 2012, we had 421 homes for sale in Oxnard and Port Hueneme. By December of 2012 we had 122 homes on the market! In Camarillo, we went from 198 homes to 71 homes on the market for the same time frame. We simply do not have enough homes for sale to meet local demand anymore. With demand high and supply low there can be only one outcome. Higher prices.

Frankly, the market in many ways resembles the market we had in 2002 – 2007. Any single family detached home in reasonable condition for under $400,000 has frequently been the target of multiple offers, bidding wars and sale prices exceeding listing prices. Once again, cash is king, since appraisals frequently come in low for these homes. That is a typical indicator of a market with significant price increases.

Buyers must make up the difference between sale price and appraisal with cash. Often, first time home buyers must stretch to reach the list price, so trying to find an additional $5,000 or $10,000 to close the deal is difficult. Investors typically are not affected since they usually pay cash regardless of any appraisal. They may not even order an appraisal. Investor groups are very popular for this reason. They simply roll over and crush any loan financed competition.

So what’s next? I predict home prices will continue upwards and trigger the renewed building of new home developments. Certainly, more folks will decide to list their homes as prices begin achieving the levels where they are no longer upside down on their loans. Some of these folks will finally be able to refinance out of their arm loans and into today’s market interest rates. A great deal of financial pain will be relieved for these home owners, allowing them to use their earnings for a broader range of consumer products and services.

As more people list their homes, the upward pressure on home prices may moderate from present levels as supply begins to catch up with demand. I think prices will continue upwards in the double digits from this year for at least the next several years before we see prices slow again. There is just too much pent up demand.

Short sales and foreclosures will be with us for at least a few more years but the number of these sales is a much smaller portion of total sales today than just 2 years ago when over 60% of all our sales were distressed sales. I believe they make up less than half of that number today, but I don’t have any hard data on them.

Short sales have one year left as an advantaged viable option for home sellers. Congress did renew the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act for one more year. We are hoping that the State of California will do the same. (Additional conditions apply) This allows a homeowner to short sale their home, pay no commission for the sale of their home, ( the mortgage holding bank pays ) and no taxes on their capital gains mortgage debt. Personally, with rising home prices, I don’t expect to see this relief extended past this year.

Finally, interest rates may begin to see more upward movement before the end of 2013. As our economy continues to improve and more homes are built, I believe we will begin to see the beginnings of inflationary pressures on our local, and nationwide economies. That may signal the start of a more definitive increase in interest rates. I’m not an economist, but we have had several years of historically low interest rates and our market has responded. The Fed will soon have no reason to artificially hold rates down.

Competition for nicer homes will remain intense this year so buyers must have patience, be pre-approved and have the ability to make home buying decisions quickly. Putting off a home purchase for an extended time will probably be a costly decision.

For home sellers, the market is headed your way. Most folks should see prices high enough to list again in a much shorter period of time than they may have thought possible. Just remember if you delay in selling your home, the purchase of an equivalent home may cost more as well. Conversely, listing homes at wildly inflated prices may still cause them to sit while replacement homes increase in price. Neighborhood sold trends still are the best indicators of sales success when pricing your home.

We are in a time of transition now. I believe prices and interest rates will continue upwards this year and probably more quickly than most people expect. Home inventory will remain tight for most of this year until prices allow homeowners to refinance or list at a profit again. Home prices fell a long way over the last 5 or 6 years so this may take some time.





Mark Thorngren

Movewest Realty, Inc.



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