Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis 1st Quarter 2015 - (January, February, March)

Camarillo continues the gradual decline in total home inventory from a Sept 2014 peak of 265 homes. Home inventory in January was 198 homes dropping slightly to 195 homes in Feb, and finally falling to 163 homes for March 2015. Total home inventory includes single family homes, condos and townhomes currently listed for sale in each community. Home inventory does not include manufactured or mobile homes, or rental property. 

This trend is similar to last year when total home inventory fell from 161 homes in Jan, to 150 in Feb, to 122 homes in March. Even though we may not like this trend, at least the total inventory this year is significantly higher than last year. Last year in 2014 we saw a turn-around in April with 178 homes coming to market, so we’ll just have to hold our breath and see if the same performance occurs again this April to breathe life back into our market.

Another trend repeating itself is the increasing number of monthly home sales despite falling inventory. For 2014 we saw Jan sales at 37 homes, Feb sales at 40 homes, and Mar sales at 64 homes. 2015 is apparently duplicating last years’ trend with Jan sales of 40 homes, Feb sales at 61 homes, and Mar with 100 sales! – 100 sales is a nice increase perhaps signaling better things to come in Camarillo. 

However, there is serious trouble brewing for home buyers. We have a strong sellers’ market shown by the increasing number of sales each month this quarter, while the number of homes that sellers are putting on the market each month is decreasing. We had 76 homes come to market during the month of January. February saw the number fall to 65, and March saw only 57 homes come to market.

Monthly inventory differs from total inventory in that only homes which were put on sale during a specific month are included in that months inventory. Inventory listed prior to a specific month is not included in a specific months monthly inventory. Monthly inventory is a great tool to use to spot market trends.

So what kind of a trend is Camarillos’ monthly inventory revealing? Fewer homes are being offered for sale each month. Simply put, the housing well is running dry. Demand is strong, mortgage interest rates continue to be held down by the Fed, yet we have little inventory to offer buyers. Low supply and strong demand points toward higher home prices coming to a neighborhood near you.

Today is near the middle of April, and as I write this there are 171 homes on the market in Camarillo. Only 20 of these homes and condominiums are priced below $500,000!  151 homes are currently listed at or above a half million dollars. At some point our market will be saturated with higher priced homes that may need a longer time frame in order to sell. There are an insignificant number of low priced homes on our market. This means very few first time home buyers will be capable of a home purchase in Camarillo.

It will be interesting to see what effect this market will have on things like K-12 student populations, rental prices and the number of people willing to accept new job positions in local industry with such high housing costs.

Greater control of new home development is finally elbowing its’ way into long term city planning. In the last 12 months at least 2 new developments were slowed or rejected for reconsideration. One very large development between the 101 and CSUCI was rejected and another new development on what is currently the Catholic Church Seminary off Upland Road was also halted. My guess is that these developments most likely will be built at some point in the future, but on a reduced scale from what developers originally planned.

There are some exceptions of course. 1300 new homes will be built as part of the Springville Development adjacent to the 101, but according to Camarillo Public Works Director Tom Fox “We don’t allow new customers to build in the city unless they provide their own water source. In the case of the Springville development of 1,300 homes, the land was previously used to grow strawberries, a very water-intensive crop. Homes use far less water, so the extra water can be transferred to the city.” This was from a very informative article which appeared in the April 10, 2015 Ventura County Star, detailing water conservation efforts in Camarillo. 

By my count, Camarillo has had at least 14 new home developments under construction or in the advanced planning stage.  Four in Village at the Park (Hanover, Somerset, Village Commons, Village Park Collection and 10 in the new Springville Development.  (see development link below) www.ci.camarillo.ca.us/docsSpringville%20New%20Homes%20&%20Affordable%20Units.pdf

Median single family home prices in Camarillo last reported for Feb show prices down 8.4% from Jan at $520,00 but up 1% from Feb of last year. This compares to the Ventura County median single family home price of $541,119. The number of home sales is up by 88% from Feb of 2014 which is more than any other city I study in Ventura County. (Data from ClarusMarketMetrics and Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors.)

Oxnard   Unlike Camarillo, the total home inventory in Oxnard has shown a strong, steady increase from the 212 homes on the market last December. Jan saw a jump up to 252 homes, Feb to 260 homes followed by another jump to 286 homes in Mar.   This is down from the June 2014 peak of 344 homes, yet the trend is a strong one which I suspect may continue upwards to a higher peak this year.

  

The number of homes coming to market each month has remained fairly constant at between 114 to 122 homes each month. Sales are a bit volatile but improving with 91 homes sold in Jan, 65 in Feb and a big jump to 144 homes sold in Mar.

The Ventura County Star announced on Friday April 3^rd that a brand new home community will soon be constructed at the previously named North Shore at Mandalay Bay. This development was a casualty of the recession but is now being resurrected by Irvine-based developer SunCal. This new 292 unit project will be called Beach-Walk on the Mandalay Coast.

Thirty Five years ago this was a hazardous waste site after being used as an oil field waste disposal facility between 1954 and 1981. According to the article in the Ventura County Star, Hazardous waste cleanup was overseen by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control and was finished in 2008.  The property was repossessed from its previous developer in 2009 after more than $63.8 million had already been spent on it.  SunCal purchased the bank owned property in 2013 for $32.25 million. Plans are now in the making to offer the first homes for sale sometime during the second quarter of 2016.

The Nov  median home price in Oxnard was $415,000, up from $410,000 in Sept. The new number for February 2015 stands at $465,000 up 19% just from January!

Port Hueneme had a median sale price for Nov of $300,500… the lowest in Ventura County. It now stands at $360,000 up 1.6% from Jan 2015 and still with the lowest median home sale price in Ventura County.

Ventura  The total home inventory has risen from 145 homes in December to 162 in Jan, 152 in Feb and back up to 163 homes for Mar. The monthly home inventory has trended the same as total inventory. Beginning with a low of 33 homes coming to market in Dec, monthly inventory jumped all the way to 76 homes for Jan 2015, back to 56 homes in Feb and recovered to 73 homes again in March. Total sales numbers bottomed at 55 home sales in Jan, up to 67 homes in Feb and rocketed up to 98 homes in March 2015.

As of April 2015 The Orchard Collection in East Ventura has nearly sold out in both of its’ new home tracts. The Plantation with 59 single family homes started construction in the Fall of 2011 and was noteworthy for having no Mello Roos and a low HOA of $240/month. The development was priced roughly 10% below market and quickly sold out. The Grove is 60 townhome/condominiums and also has no mello roos and a low HOA of $240/month and includes water, sewer, exterior maintenance and homeowner insurance. Prices start at $384,990 for a Plan 1 and at $399,990 for a Plan 2. This is another great value for first time home buyers especially. With less than 10 homes remaining, I would expect the final phase to be sold out before mid- May.

 

The April 13 Ventura County Star has reported that the Ventura City Council will soon be considering a complete moratorium on new residential development. The plan is to block further development until 2 Feb 2016, at which time new applications will be considered until 31 Mar 2016. Anything submitted after that time frame or anything deemed incomplete for consideration will have to wait until some unspecified future date. Things like affordable housing or projects which are already years along in development will be excluded from the moratorium. Like Camarillo, Ventura wishes to develop better control and evaluation of new home development.

     

The November 2014 median price of a home in Ventura was $471,500 but has rebounded  to $530,000 in February 2015, up 7.6% from January on a 34% increase in number of sales in just one month. 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen nearly identical total home inventories during the 1st Quarter 2015.  Santa Paula listed 26 homes for Jan, 24 for Feb and 21 for Mar.  Fillmore saw 26 homes in Jan, 26 for Feb and 21 for Mar. Home sales have also stayed flat with between 6 and 8 homes selling per month in each city. This is a slight decrease from the 10 to 12 homes sold in each month of the 4^th quarter 2014.

The Feb 2015 median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula is $449,750 up 40% from a year ago!  This continues a very steep upward pricing trend.  Fillmore has a median home price of $432,500 up from $336,000 last May with a 10.9% increase in prices from a year ago. This is a much stronger median price increase than the county-wide average of 4.1%.

  

Moorpark saw total home listing inventory decrease from 102 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Nov, to 72 homes in Dec . This trend continued into Jan 2015 with 67 homes listed, falling further to 63 homes in Feb but finally nudging back upwards to 74 homes listed in Mar.  Total closed sales were 43 homes in Dec, dropping to 25 home sales in Jan 2015, 26 in Feb and finally rising slightly to 30 homes in Mar.

  

Moorpark appears to be one of the fastest growing cities in Ventura County with at least four very expensive new home developments north of the 118 – The Estates Collection, The Executive Collection, Moorpark Highlands and The Pinnacle at Moorpark. Another much more modestly priced development is being built South of the 118 – Ivy Lanes. Home sales in these new communities are not generally reflected in our MLS.

Ivy Lanes is a 99 home tract located at 13353 Pembury Court with roughly half of these homes still available for sale. The HOA runs $150/month, 3 plans, 1600 sq ft for Plan One – priced from $442,900, roughly 2,000 sq ft for both Plan Two – priced from $499,900 and Plan Three – priced from $474,900. They are all 2 story townhomes. The design and size of these homes makes them feel very much like single family homes. I like what I saw when I visited Ivy Lanes last week. There is a lot of value here and the floorplans were open, high tech and comfy. Yards are tiny, but at least each home has one, compared with most new condo complexes which usually have no yard whatsoever.

 

Median home price in Moorpark for Feb 2015 was $615,500,  up 10.9% from Feb 2014. Sales are up 11.1% from Feb of 2014.

 

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  The present home inventory is substantially lower than last years peak of roughly 300 homes available during July and August.  We had 239 homes listed in Jan, 219 in Feb and 225 in Mar revealing no strong trends.  Sales stood at 96 homes in Jan, 82 in Feb and finally rising to 112 in Mar.

As of the second week in April there were just 4 condo homes left of the original 72 built in The Marketplace located at 4363 Eileen Street. All 4 homes are Plan 1 homes listed from $426,000 to as high as $479,900. Plan 2 homes are all sold out but I had the opportunity to visit the Plan 2 model and I thought it was comfortable. It had No yard but the homes were adequate. The homes come with a Master Association Dues of $165/month and additional Sub Association dues “anticipated to be approximately $188/month.

Plan 1 homes are a bit tight by comparison to Plan 2 homes. Plan 1 homes come in 2 and 3 story models. Each of the 3 floors has it’s own family room. The third floor is a loft, but with no bathroom on that level.

All homes facing the street are nearly zero lot line fronting onto the sidewalk, with no fences or privacy walls. There are shopping centers and strip malls just across the street in 2 directions, so you are within easy walking distance for many of your shopping needs. 

 

It is interesting to note that just East of Simi Valley through the pass and just North of the 118 there is new expansion of the Porter Ranch Development with The Glen opening for sales in the third week of April. Again, these are luxury homes at luxury home prices.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley is $495,000 for Feb 2015, up 11.2% over Feb 2014. The number of home sales have increased an awesome 48.6% from 12 months ago! This market is healing quickly.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park   The first quarter of 2015 is seeing a reversal of last quarters’ downward  trend in total home inventory. Starting with just 184 homes in Dec, we have witnessed a turnaround with 215 homes listed in Jan 2015, 247 in Feb and 264 homes in Mar. This increasing total home inventory looks very healthy and we hope this trend continues. Even the number of homes coming to market during each month is beginning to build again from 100 in Jan, and 95 in Feb, to a stronger 121 homes in Mar. Sales followed the same trend with 87 homes sold in Jan, a slight dip to 62 in Feb and a big bounce back to 107 homes sold in March.

  

A new gated community will be opening for sales during the weekend of April 18 in Thousand Oaks. Guess what kind of homes will be sold. “Three and four bedrooms … priced from the low $1 millions.” Surprise! Just 20 homes are being built.

“The luxury homes at Twenty Oaks will range from approximately 2,900 square feet to more than 4,000 sq ft on homesites averaging 14,000 sq ft with spectacular views of the Santa Monica Mountains.  Twenty Oaks is located at Mayflower Street and Warwick Avenue in Thousand Oaks, just north of the Janss Marketplace.” Visit www.TwentyOaksNWHM.com  for more information.

  

Median Feb price for a home in TO was $728,000 up from $717,500 in Sept 2014 and a 17.4% increase from a year ago. The number of home sales is down 19.4% from a year ago.

Median price for a home in Newbury Park stood at $625,000 for Feb 2015 down from $639,000 in Sept 2014. This is a 7.7% decrease from Feb 2014. The number of home sales were up for Feb year over year by 5.6%. So prices are down just a bit, but sales numbers are up a bit.

   

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  saw their total home inventory build to a peak of 136 homes in July, then gradually taper back to 81 homes in Dec’14. Thankfully, we are again seeing the total number of listings building back up once again. Total inventory rose to 91 homes in Jan, then 104 homes in Feb and again rising to 113 homes in Mar 2015. Sales mirrored Thousand Oaks with 32 homes sold in Jan, a dip to 21 homes in Feb and a bounce back to 42 homes in March.

Oak Park saw its’ median Feb home price rise to $716,000 up from $685,000 in September. This is still an 8.2% drop in sales price for Feb year over year, and a whooping drop of 50% in the total number of home sales from a year ago. 

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood   Total home inventory for Jan 2015 was up to 127 homes from just 96 homes in Jan 2014. The total inventory high for 2014 was 175 homes in July, and 174 homes in Aug. Thereafter the numbers dove to 106 in Dec’14. March 2015 total inventory stands at 145 homes, so it appears we have a good chance of matching last years peak inventory if this rising inventory trend continues.

 

Monthly sales for Jan 2015 were 25 homes which matched the 25 homes sold in Jan 2014. We sold another 25 homes in Feb and doubled total sales to 50 in March 2015. This compares to the peak of 58 homes sold in June 2014, so homes sales look promising for 2015.

Median Feb home price in Westlake Village was $897,000 which compares to the September 2014 $830,000, and November 2014 at $1,200,000 for a median home price. As you can see, the numbers are pretty erratic. I attribute this to the low number of home sales versus the very high home prices. It’s easy for small number of home sales to effect the overall market trend in this market.

  

Summary

The first quarter of 2015 has begun much as it did last year, but at slightly higher total inventory numbers in most cities. Our market seems healthier, with a building total home inventory but still with tentative sales in many communities.

  

I suspect that the robust new home construction market may be slanting some of our market numbers, since brand new homes are not often entered into our local MLS. In other words, more homes are being sold than I can include in my research.  My discussions with Sales Counselors in the new Ventura County home developments reveal that their sales are very strong. It is comforting that market sales are benefiting from increased new home inventory and strong buyer demand, yet it is also cause for concern when we reflect on the challenges that new home construction forces upon us.

We see many new mandatory regulations on water use for existing home owners, but many hundreds of new homes continue to be built throughout Ventura County. Now the state is mandating a 25% reduction in water use in each city in California. It should be interesting to see how each of our communities will cope with this challenge, as most of the cities in Ventura County have ambitious plans for new home construction.

We may need to consider the effects of new home construction upon our communities in terms of public services, traffic, school construction, cost of living, business recruitment and operating costs, as well as the impact on our finite water resources. I believe many people are beginning to notice that poorly regulated home development comes at a high cost to the quality of life for all of us.

So maybe the issue isn’t so much what price range should be built to meet current home buyer demand, but rather, should we be building so many new homes? Do we need to put our communities at risk by straining our resources further with more building or do we need to put our energy and efforts into developing new sources of water, repairing infrastructure and improving our local business/jobs climate. Can this be done without raising taxes? Are expensive new home developments supporting local quality of life or threatening it?

Clearly, our community leaders will need to carefully weigh and balance the advantages of the taxable income a new home development brings to city coffers, versus the many expensive demands it creates on the entire community.

  

Just the way I see it. 

Mark Thorngren

(805) 443-3366    mark@markthorngren.com     BRE# 01413932   

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author.

Free Realty Times Videos at http://realtytimes.com/REUv/markthorngren 

Call for a free market review of your home!  (805)443-3366

Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis 4th Quarter 2014 - (October, November, December) & Year End Review

Camarillo saw a gradual decline in home inventory from 239 homes in Oct to 226 homes in Nov, and finally falling to 192 homes for Dec. The market is still stronger than a year ago when we finished 2013 with just 164 homes in our Dec inventory. Most of the decline in inventory was in SFD (single family detached) homes while condo/townhome inventory remained fairly stable.

The number of homes which go under contract and into escrow during each month is a fairly strong indicator of the number of homes which will close escrow during the succeeding month. In other words, most of the homes which go into escrow this month become closed sales by the end of next month. This is why monthly sales numbers are a good indicator of the previous month’s sales market. But sometimes we are fooled.

Sept had 78 homes go into escrow, Oct had 85, and Nov had 83. So, we expected to see somewhere close to 78 homes close in Oct and indeed 74 homes did close escrow. We had 85 homes go to escrow in Oct so we expected closed sales of about 85 homes in Nov. That didn’t happen.

We had 53 homes close escrow in Nov! This was 32 homes fewer than we would have expected. So what happened to the 32 homes? Some probably dropped out of escrow (which is more common than most people know) and some took longer to close (maybe due to the holidays) and reflect into the next month’s sales numbers. So the 83 homes that went into escrow in Nov morphed into 75 homes sold in Dec. which equaled Oct sales numbers! This happened despite the fact that Dec had the lowest home inventory of the 4^th quarter.

Obviously, home inventory is not a good predictor of monthly sales or monthly buyer demand in a transitional market like ours. We are still in a fairly strong seller’s market but nowhere near as strong as the market in the Spring of 2013 when prices and interest rates were much lower than today. If buyer demand remains constant, then home inventory will often help drive home prices. Smaller inventory increases competition among buyers and helps to raise home prices. Larger inventory increases competition among sellers and tends to lower home sales prices. In our transitional market, anything can happen.

Most of the foreclosures and short sales are gone. Foreclosures were 19.7% of our state market in 2011 and just 2.5% of our market in 2014. Short sales were also 20.2% of our state market in 2011 and just 3.6% of our market today. So total distressed property sales have dropped from 40% of our market to roughly 6% today as shown in CAR’s (California Association of Realtors) “2014 Annual Housing Market Survey”. Many investors have left our market since home prices and loan interest rates have risen steeply during that same time frame. 

Prices in Camarillo have risen close to 26% by my calculations since Jan of 2013. There was roughly a 20% increase in 2013 and about 6% in 2014. The Median home list price for Nov was $665,000 as reported by our local VCCAR realtor board in the “Ventura County Market Report for Nov 2014”. This is a staggering 25% increase in price from the previous month. I believe this reflects more on a smaller number of higher priced homes which sold rather than on the actual overall market. We can check this next month. The median Sept sales price in Camarillo was $540,000 which compares more closely with the Ventura County Nov median home price of $512,000 for a SFD and $330,000 for a condo.

Less expensive distressed home sales are almost gone, investors are leaving the home buyer market and home prices have risen above what many first time home buyers can afford. As I discussed in my 3^rd quarter report – most new home developments in Camarillo are beyond the reach of first time home buyers as well. According to CAR, first time home buyers made up 50.8% of the market in California in 1995. In 2014, first time home buyers made up just 30.5% of the market in California, a decline of 20%. Student loan debt is also affecting our home sales. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, student loan debt has tripled over the last 10 years with over 78% of students owing more than $10,000.  

So who are buying homes in Camarillo? Affluent home buyers appear to be the only group comfortable with our market and indeed, we have seen a surge in their purchases as our economy continues to improve. The major challenge we will have in Camarillo is in the market for trade up homes which would normally be purchased by folks who come from the first time home owner segment. As the first time home owner segment continues to shrivel up, it will become an issue to trade up home owners. According to CAR’s 2014 Market Survey: “This occurred in the late 1980s, when low affordability curbed first-time homeownership, which in the early 1990s exacerbated the decline of the trade-up market in California.”   

Sellers have seen their homes appreciate to levels near the market prices we had at the peak in 2006. Most home owners are once again building equity, often refinancing their homes or entertaining the possibility of selling their homes for a profit. They are generally reluctant to accept low price offers from buyers. They can afford to wait. People who chart the stock market will recognize this market pricing as a resistance ceiling. At some point, buyer demand will recognize the new home values and the volume of sales will markedly increase to match this realization. Looking at our local trends, I think this will happen within the next 2 years

I believe that home prices will continue to rise at a modest rate in 2015, moderated by a gradually increasing home inventory and by rising mortgage interest rates. In California, the median household income of a first time home buyer is $80,000 … I’d guess that is a bigger number in Ventura County.  Better keep your kids’ bedroom available to them when they graduate from school, because they probably won’t be buying their first home in Camarillo.

 

Oxnard  The number of homes for sale have fallen from 314 homes in September 2014 to 212 Homes in December 2014. This is down from the June peak of 344 homes.  212 homes were listed Dec 2014 mostly unchanged year over year from the 220 homes listed in Dec of 2013. The number of monthly home listings has fallen from 117 homes in Sept to 57 homes in Dec. Total home sales have remained remarkably consistent at 108 homes in Sept, spiking to 155 homes in Oct and dropping back to 109 homes in both Nov and Dec.

The Nov  median home price in Oxnard was $415,000, up from $410,000 in Sept. Port Hueneme had a median sale price for Nov of $300,500 … the lowest in Ventura County.

Ventura The 4^th quarter saw a predictable fall in home inventory from 219 homes in October to 145 homes in December up slightly from 136 homes listed in Dec 2013. So there has been a small growth in inventory. The number of homes coming to market each month has trended downward from the third quarter with 91 homes in July, to 85 homes in August, 76 homes in September and continuing down in the 4^th quarter all the way to 33 homes in Dec. Total sales numbers remained remarkably constant at 79 for Sept, 81 for Oct, 80 for Nov and finally tapering a bit to 70 sales in Dec – close to the 74 sales in Dec of 2013.

The November median price of a home in Ventura was $471,500 down from $505,000 in September.

 

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen no appreciable increase in total home inventories during the 4th Quarter.  Santa Paula listed 28 homes for Oct, 24 for Nov and 24 again for Dec. Home sales also stayed flat with 12 homes selling in Oct, 10 in Nov and 12 again in Dec. Year over year home sales remained nearly unchanged with 10 homes selling in Dec of 2013.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000, rising to $412,000 by Sept, and on to $475,000 in Nov. This is a very steep upward pricing trend.  Fillmore had a median home price of $336,000 last May, which rose to $354,500 by Sept, and continued upward to $393,450 by Nov. Again, this is a very aggressive upward pricing trend.

 

Moorpark saw inventory decrease from 102 homes in Oct to 84 homes in Nov, to 72 homes in Dec . The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers has remained fairly constant with 44 homes in Oct, 41 homes in Nov, and a slight dip to 27 homes in Dec’14 which is very close to the 25 homes which came to market last Dec’13. Total closed sales were 23 homes in Oct, 23 again in Nov, then a spike to 43 homes in Dec… up from the 37 homes sold in Dec’13.

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April! Then in September the median price dropped back to $609,000, and fell precipitously to $505,000 in Nov. I’m not sure what’s happening here. Possibly with such a small number of home sales, which continued to decrease each month in the 4^th quarter, each sale has an effect on the averages out of proportion to what a larger market might show. 

 

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  The home inventory has bounced back and forth between 290 and 310 homes since August. In Dec’14 the inventory dropped to 231 homes - which is still a big improvement over the 158 homes available in Dec’13. Sales stood at 114 homes in Oct and dropping slightly to 99 homes in Nov and 97 in Dec’14 ... down slightly from the 107 homes which sold Dec’13.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, rose over the 3^rd quarter to $510,000 for September ... and fell back slightly to $482,500 in Nov.

 

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  have seen their total home inventory steadily decline from 355 homes in July, to 344 homes in Aug, to 339 homes in Sept in the 3^rd quarter.  The 4^th quarter continued down to 309 homes listed in Oct, 253 in Nov and finally 184 homes in Dec. That is a long slide down. Year over year home inventories are very close for the month of December. Basically the 2014 home inventory boomed during the first 3 quarters of 2014 and then gave back all the inventory increases in the second half of the year. The number of home sales has remained fairly stable at between 90 and 100 sales each month since Sept and finished Dec’14 at 100 sales vs 99 sales in Dec’13. This appears to be a re-occurring theme in most of the towns in Ventura County. Year over year home sales are very close for the month of December.

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450… $717,500 in Sept… and back to $674,000 in Nov.

Median price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500 in May… rose to $639,000 in Sept... and fell back to $585,000 in Nov. (ref: www.terradatum.com )

 

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  saw their total market inventory build to a peak of 136 homes in July, taper back to 128 in August, 122 homes in Sept, spike to133 homes in Oct, then continue the slide down to 115 homes in Nov and 81 homes in Dec’14. This compares to 84 homes in Dec’13s inventory.

Sales began at 25 homes sold for Jan and ratcheted up to a high of 58 homes sold in July. Sales dipped back to 32 by Oct, 31 in Nov and remained close at 33 homes sold in Dec’14 – nearly identical to the 32 homes sold in Dec’13.

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000, dropping to $685,000 in September, then rising once again to $874,000 in November.

Agoura Hills Saw it’s median home price drop year over year from $837,500 in Sept’13 to $542,599 in Sept’14. (ref: www.ClarusMarketMetrics.com ) We have to remember that Oak Park and Agoura Hills are smaller markets than most Conejo Valley communities, so it takes fewer home sales to skew the numbers.

 

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood   Total home inventories rose from just 96 homes in Jan to a high of 175 homes in July, and 174 homes in Aug. Thereafter the numbers dove from 165 homes listed in Sept, to 151 in Oct, 134 in Nov and 106 in Dec’14 – down from Dec’13s - 118 homes listed. 

Monthly sales began at 25 in Jan and built to 58 homes sold in June. From then on it was a gradual downhill slide, with sales bottoming in Dec’14 at 33 homes sold… compared to Dec’13s - 40 homes sold. 

Median May price for a home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500. By September the numbers had fallen to $830,000, and finished in Nov at $1,200,000 for a median home price.

Summary

2014 was a roller coaster market that started weak and built in both inventory and  number of sales until the middle of summer. Then the market gave back much of its’ gains.

This Decembers’ county- wide inventory is generally very close to last Decembers’ inventory.  However, almost every town studied showed a 4^th quarter decrease in total inventory and sales from the previous 3 quarters.

Prices rose more slowly in 2014, on average about 6% in Ventura County. Though prices were soft in the 4^th quarter, I predict prices will strengthen again with the new year. Sellers have reason to be optimistic about our market with home values in many areas building upward towards levels we haven’t seen since 2006. 

Home buyers are struggling with the new higher prices, relatively low inventory, and lender requirements. On the plus side, inventory will likely improve during the 1^st quarter of 2015. Also, mortgage rates fell in Nov’14 to about 4.0% …  down from 4.25%  in Nov’13.  They will probably not rise again until after the first quarter if you believe the FED. The forecast is for rates to reach somewhere around 4.5% before the end of the year.

All in all, I think the Ventura County market is continuing to mend, with prices and inventory moving towards a more natural balance. Future challenges include finding a way to encourage first time home buyers to invest in our market. Or maybe to encourage developers to build homes in a price range first time home buyers can afford.

Just the way I see it.

 

Mark Thorngren    

(805) 443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author.

Additional blogs found at:

http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/   or    http://activerain.trulia.com/blogs/markthorngren  or

Realtor.com:  http://www.markthorngren.featuredblog.com

 

Free Realty Times Videos at http://realtytimes.com/REUv/markthorngren with weekly updates on topics for buyers and sellers.

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Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis - 3rd Quarter 2014

Mark’s Ventura County Real Estate Market Analysis

3rd Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)

Camarillo has seen small but steady gains in home inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost stale market.

Last year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for 2014. We had more summer home sales in 2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to 79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September 2014 ). 

Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79 days on the market – about the same as 2014.

The September median price of an existing single family home in Ventura County was $540,000,  down  -5.1% from August. The median price of a SFD home in Camarillo was also $540,000 up from April’s $532,500, but down -5.1% from the August median. So median price increase averages about $1,600/month.

One of the interesting things comparing these two summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from 150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of 2013’s increase.

As I write this in the second week of October there are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo. There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only 40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.

Obviously, with only 40 homes out of roughly 265 homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD are mostly out of their reach.

Oxnard The number of homes for sale has risen from 214 homes in September 2013 to 314 Homes as of September 2014. This is down from the June’14 peak of 344 homes. Still, this is an average increase in inventory of 100 homes year over year. The number of homes being listed each month has remained flat with 116 homes in April, peaking at 134 homes in June and dropping back to 117 homes in Sept. 

Total Oxnard home sales in Sept – 108 homes – are close to matching the first quarter which had a high of 106 homes sold in March. We saw home sales for the second quarter jump up to 127 homes in April, and then pretty much just hang there with 128 homes sold in May, 135 homes sold in June, 129 for July and 132 for Aug, before dropping back to Septembers 108 home sales. There still isn’t much wind in the sale sails right now.

The May median price of a home in Oxnard was $385,000, has increased to $410,000 for Sept.

Ventura has experienced a steady growth in inventory from 162 homes in March to a high of 223 homes in Sept. The number of homes coming to market each month has trended downward during this third quarter from 91 homes in July, to 85 homes in August and 76 homes in September. Total sales fell from 97 in July, and 99 in August… to 87 by September.

The May median price of a home in Ventura was $505,000. The median rose slightly for the summer months and has returned once more to $505,000 for September.

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen no appreciable increase in total home inventories during the 3^rd quarter.  Santa Paula saw an increasing trend during the past 2^nd quarter with 22 homes in April, 27 in May and finally 35 homes (condos & Single Family) on the market in June. The 3^rd quarter saw the inventory freeze at between 29 homes in July and 33 homes in September. These numbers are actually much weaker than last summer’13 numbers which climbed as high as 42 homes on the market for Sept’13. Total sales for Sept’14 were 8 homes sold – less than half the 20 homes sold in Sept’13.

The May median price of an existing single family home in Santa Paula was $352,000, rising to $412,000 by September. That is a very steep $60,000 median price increase in just 4 months.

Fillmore had a median price of $336,000 last May and rose to $354,500 by this Sept.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 58 homes in March to 93 homes in June. The 3^rd quarter saw a more gradual increase in total inventory to 112 homes. New monthly listings rose slightly from 36 in July to 42 by September.  The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers have bounced between 34 last June, to 42 in July, 43 in August and fell back to 30 for Sept. Total closed sales spiked in April at 89 homes, dropping back to 34 homes in May and never rising above that number until 36 homes sold in September.  So inventory has gradually increased while sales have remained remarkably flat for the 3^rd quarter in Moorpark.

Median home price in Moorpark for May was $620,000,  up 19% from April! Now in September the median price has dropped back to $609,000.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch  saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory from 272 homes in April to 309 homes in May, to 330 homes in June. Then the 3^rd quarter saw a steady decline in inventory from 328 homes in July to 304 in August, to 286 this September. The number of homes selling each month has improved marginally with 113 homes sold in April, to 131 homes in July, 131 homes again in August and now dropping to 115 homes for September.

The median price of an existing single family home in Simi Valley was $489,000 for May, and has since risen over the 3^rd quarter to $510,000 for September.

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park  Have seen their total home inventory decline slightly from 355 homes in July, to 344 homes in Aug, to 339 homes in Sept. This is still a much stronger market than a year ago when the September’13 inventory was just 197 homes. The number of home sales have declined over the 3^rd quarter from 132 homes in July, to 119 homes in August and just 93 homes sold in September’14. This compares to 136 homes sold in September’13. 

The market demand has been nearly identical between Sept’14 and Sept’14 with the number of Days On Market or DOM (the number of days needed to sell a home) at 57 last year vs 55 this year.  

Median May price for a home in TO was $619,450,  and  $717,500 by Sept!  That is a $100,000 increase in median home prices in 4 months. No wonder sales have dropped over the 3^rd quarter!

Median May price for a home in Newbury Park was $629,500,  and has risen a slightly to $639,000.  (ref: www.terradatum.com )

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  saw their total market inventory build to a peak of 136 homes in July then taper back to 128 in August and 122 homes in September’14. Sales for Sept’14 were at 42 homes. 

  

Oak Park saw its’ median May home price rise to $840,000, dropping to $685,000 in September, dropping more than 23% from August numbers!

Agoura Hills Saw it’s median home price drop year over year from $837,500 in Sept’13 to $542,599 in Sept’14. (ref: www.ClarusMarketMetrics.com ) We have to remember that Oak Park and Agoura Hills are smaller markets than most Conejo Valley communities, so it takes fewer home sales to skew the numbers.

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood saw a much stronger second quarter with total inventory rising from 146 homes in April, to 158 homes in May, to 164 homes in June. These numbers peaked in June and July at 175 homes and 174 homes on market respectively, then dropping slightly to 165 homes for September.  Monthly averages of homes coming to market climbed from 53 homes in April to 54 in May to 63 in June.

The 3^rd quarter saw monthly new home inventory numbers reverse themselves with 60 homes coming to market in July, 47 in August and 42 in September. Monthly sales were fairly strong in July with 54 homes sold, August with 53 homes sold, tapering to 39 homes sold in September

Median May price for home in Westlake Village was $1,081,500. This September the numbers had fallen to $830,000 for a median home price.

Summary

County wide inventory is generally up over last year. Demand (DOM) has not appreciably increased, possibly because prices are still rising at a modest rate with some exceptions in the East Conejo Valley. September has been the weakest month of the 3^rd quarter for most criteria studied, but this a traditionally weak month. From all indications I study, the 4^th quarter will probably be an even weaker quarter for most of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren      (805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 014139

All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All opinions are those of the author. Additional blogs found at:  http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/   or    http://activerain.trulia.com/blogs/markthorngren

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