Monday, April 21, 2014

Mark's Ventura County Market Analysis for 1st Quarter 2014 ( Jan, Feb, Mar )


Mark’s Ventura County Market Analysis

1st Quarter 2014 - (January, February, March)

 

Camarillo is experiencing a suspiciously strong first quarter in home sales. I say suspiciously because the positive changes we are seeing began a bit slowly in January and February and took a marked upswing in March. As I’m writing this, we are in the third week of April and indications are that we are experiencing a continued increase in sales and new listings. We are shifting gears into a much stronger market than last quarter. Traditionally, we see increased sales after April 15 tax time but this year our market started moving ahead in March!   

Much of what we read in the news is how sales were down compared to last year in Feb and March. What these reports fail to emphasize is that our home inventory is higher than last year and the number of new listings is above the levels we saw last year. In Camarillo the number of homes listed each month has remained fairly constant at between 51 and 55 homes for this first quarter.

What’s interesting is the already strong demand for homes in Camarillo is building. The total number of homes for sale has dropped from 161 homes in Jan to 122 homes in March. At the same time the number of homes with accepted offers has climbed from 73 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March. The actual number of homes which have made it through escrow and sold has also risen from 37 homes in Jan to 92 homes in March!  That’s a 249% increase in home sales for the first quarter. Most of this happened in March and early indications are that April will be a stronger month.              

Oxnard is once again mirroring the Camarillo market but on a bit larger scale. The number of homes for sale has risen from 234 homes in Jan to a peak of 253 homes in Feb and back to 230 homes in March. The number of homes being listed each month has remained fairly constant between 88 and 104 homes or at an average of about 94 homes per month.  However, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow has risen from 51 homes in Dec to 120 homes in Jan, 147 homes in Feb to 186 homes in March! Those numbers will reflect more strongly next month when these homes close escrow and become sold numbers. As it is, home sales rose from 81 homes in Jan to 106 homes in March, for a 31% increase in home sales. Oxnard is on the move.  

Ventura has market numbers that follow between Camarillo on the low side and Oxnard on the high side. It also reflects a gradual gathering of demand in Jan and Feb and a defined spike in sales for March. Average home inventory has remained between 162 to 172 homes. The average  number of homes coming to market is also fairly constant at a rough average of 65 homes per month.  What is exciting is that like Camarillo and Oxnard, the number of homes with accepted offers going into escrow, has risen from 57 homes last Dec to 75 homes in Jan, then 82 homes in Feb and now bouncing up in March all the way to 107 homes! Again, we will see these numbers next month as a big jump in closed sales.  Closed sales have risen from 53 homes in Jan, to 72 homes in March, for a 36% increase in home sales during the first quarter.    

Santa Paula and Fillmore have seen very little change in total home inventories.  Santa Paula has averaged about 40 homes on the market at any given time, while Fillmore averages 20 homes.  Unlike the other towns just discussed, we have seen Santa Paula increase the total number of  listings going into escrow for Jan and Feb but falling a bit in March. Which means the April sold numbers will suffer. Average sold numbers for the 1st quarter did rise from 13 homes in Jan, spiking all the way up to 23 homes in March. The West County spike in March sales was not shared by Fillmore where home sales have actually fallen a bit from 10 in Jan, to 8 in Feb and 6 in March.

Moorpark saw inventory increase from 52 homes in Jan to 61 homes in Feb and hold fairly steady at about 58 homes in March. New listings are holding fairly steady at between 20 and 25 homes per month with no obvious trend at this time. The number of homes going into escrow with accepted offers did spike in March to 37 homes, up from an average 22 homes for Jan and Feb. Total closed sales has trended downward from 39 homes in Dec to 26 homes in Jan, to 21 homes in Feb and now 17 homes for March. I would expect these numbers to jump up when the 37 accepted offers for March become closings in April.

Since the supply of monthly new home listings has stagnated, but demand  (as shown by the large number of accepted offers) is high… I think it is safe to say that home prices will continue to rise in Moorpark.

Often, new home construction will add to supply but sell for a premium. Ivy Lane is one of the newer home developments in Moorpark with a sales office that opened March 1 and has already sold out it’s first phase of homes. Some may dispute my characterization of these homes, but they are basically comfortable duplexes. Homes are priced from 430K for 3 bedrooms and 1600 sq ft to 470K for 4 bedrooms and 2000 sq ft.  Considering most 1500 sq ft homes are selling for over 450K and may have been built in the 1960’s, Ivy Lane homes are worth serious consideration.

Simi Valley & Wood Ranch are making a steady recovery back to 2014’s peak inventory of 196 homes last October. Inventory fell back to a low of 158 homes in Dec. Then the market shifted once again. Jan saw the beginning of a steady improvement in inventory to 163 homes. Feb jumped to 218 homes and March to 276 homes! Monthly increases in homes coming to market have been substantial. We had 49 homes come to market last Dec, 85 in Jan, 111 in Feb and 139 homes in March!

Accepted offers have risen from 80 in Dec, to 99 in Jan, to 125 in Feb and 157 in March! These homes are in escrow and will need another month to reflect as sold homes. Amazingly, with such strong numbers, the actual number of homes sold for Jan - 72 - was down from the 107 sold in Dec. Feb was even worse with only 53 homes sold. Finally, this last month the numbers jumped back up to 101 homes sold for March. Seeing what is now in the pipeline, I think we can count on much better home sale numbers for April.  

Thousand Oaks and Newbury Park saw their SFD (single family detached) market grow from 143 homes in Jan to 183 homes in Feb and again to 185 homes in March. We have not seen this large of an inventory of SFD since Aug of last year when we had 186 homes on the market. The number of all types of homes listed monthly has steadily increased from 32 last Dec to 77 in Jan, to 88 in Feb and finally shot up to 110 homes last month!

Homes going under contract have climbed a bit more gradually from 101 homes in Jan, to 121 homes in Feb, and to 133 homes in March. Actual home sales have been a bit more erratic, falling from 99 homes sold in Dec, to 80 in Jan, falling again to 67 homes in Feb. Then again last month sales bounced back to 88 homes sold for March! April numbers should be very good.

Agoura Hills & Oak Park  have had a more gradual market recovery this last quarter. Total market inventory has remained flat at between 92 and 97 homes. The number of homes coming to market during each month has bounced between 30 and 40 homes with no real change. The most interesting trend is in the number of homes which have recently gone into escrow, up from 44 in Jan, to 55 in Feb and 64 in March. That should make a nice increase in the number of sold properties for April. Currently, the number of homes sold has risen from 25 in Jan to 38 in March. This market is close to where it had peaked last October when 103 homes were on the market and 37 homes sold during the month.   

Westlake Village & Lake Sherwood have not yet completely regained the market strength that they had last October. It is true that the number of homes for sale has climbed back from 96 homes in Jan, to 113 in Feb, and 122 in March. This trend is fast approaching last Octobers’ peak, when 131 homes were on the market.

During the month of Oct 2013, we had 43 homes come to market. This March we had 50 homes come to market. Last Oct we had 42 homes sell, while this March gave us 31 home sales. If  I was a betting man, I’d say this market should probably exceed last years’ Oct peak within the next quarter.  I think that forecast actually applies to the whole of Ventura County.

Mark Thorngren 

(805)443-3366    mark@movewest.com     BRE# 01413932